Bob Brinker, host of Moneytalk: Interesting feedback and discussion about his lastest prognostications.
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"Honey, have not listened to Bob since he cancelled my subscription. I must admit that I have not read many of your posts since I no longer trust what he says. I did, however, began to wonder If his news letter has continued to tout that the high price of oil has not effected the economy as he did for so many months as the price went up. Something about the increase in fuel had not effected consumer spending if I remember correctly. As I filled my car with gas today, I wondered if he is still delusional. A trip to the grocery store or a restaurant or anyplace else one goes may enlighten him. On the other hand, he probably uses those multiple $185 per year that he screws people out of to hire someone to do all his shopping and he doesn't even know what prices are."
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Honeybee replied to Loren's post2 hours ago
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Hi Loren,.
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I sure understand your feelings. If one isn't entertained by Bob Brinker and if one already knows all the good basics that he teaches (and repeats almost every weekend), then there isn't much reason to waste 6 hours on the weekends. 8~)
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You make some excellent points about Brinker, the price oil and inflation. I totally agree with you.
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After avoiding all mention of the fact that the stock market went firmly into bear market territory, Brinker changed his focus the first week in July when he talked about the price of oil. He made the declaration that oil has become the "wild card" and that there is a "DIRECT CORRELATION" between the price of oil and the stock market.
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You see, at all costs, he has to find a way to explain why his "timing model" missed this bear market entirely. Not only did he miss it, but he had his subscribers 100% invested all the way down. He even made sure that anyone who was following his advice, had all their new money in the market at S&P 500 Index mid-1400's between August, 2007 and January 20th, 2008.
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In February 2008, he LOWERED his buy signal to "low-1300's" -- and the market dropped another 100 points. All this time he has continued to recommend dollar-cost averaging new money into the market. So there is no way any subscriber, who actually takes the advice they pay him for, to have avoided ANY of this bear market.
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Best regards,
Honeybee
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James xxxxxx (Fort Lauderdale, FL) replied to Thomas's poston Jul 28, 2008 at 10:47 AM
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"The problem with the sound investment advice Brinker gives is that it is easily had for free on the internet in discussion groups like this or perhaps for about $20 if you want to buy a book on investing for dummies. It does not take a genius to figure out that investing no-load mutual funds with low fees makes more sense than investing in those with fees once you know the data shows the funds with the load or sales charge don't perform any better than those that don't charge the load. And most mutual funds that are managed cannot consistently beat a comparable index fund (or ETF) because the managed fund incurs fees and if held in a taxable account generally more taxes too. Of course, those simple facts make it tough to sell a newsletter promoting even no-load mutual funds. I believe Brinker's mutual fund picks have underperformed the total stock market index.
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So the dilemma for Brinker (and all other investment advisors) is how to sell a newsletter or investment advice that tells people to buy a bunch of mutual funds that in the long run will likley underperform say the VTI or VTSMX? Brinker's solution is to pretend he can time the market. Problem is if you've followed his timing advice (including the QQQ trade) over the last 5, 10 or 15 years you'd likely have ended up no better or [possibly worse off than if you just put your money in VTSMX and a low cost GNMA fund and rebalanced to maintain a 50-50 or 60-40 ratio over the same time frame."
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"The problem with the sound investment advice Brinker gives is that it is easily had for free on the internet in discussion groups like this or perhaps for about $20 if you want to buy a book on investing for dummies. It does not take a genius to figure out that investing no-load mutual funds with low fees makes more sense than investing in those with fees once you know the data shows the funds with the load or sales charge don't perform any better than those that don't charge the load. And most mutual funds that are managed cannot consistently beat a comparable index fund (or ETF) because the managed fund incurs fees and if held in a taxable account generally more taxes too. Of course, those simple facts make it tough to sell a newsletter promoting even no-load mutual funds. I believe Brinker's mutual fund picks have underperformed the total stock market index.
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So the dilemma for Brinker (and all other investment advisors) is how to sell a newsletter or investment advice that tells people to buy a bunch of mutual funds that in the long run will likley underperform say the VTI or VTSMX? Brinker's solution is to pretend he can time the market. Problem is if you've followed his timing advice (including the QQQ trade) over the last 5, 10 or 15 years you'd likely have ended up no better or [possibly worse off than if you just put your money in VTSMX and a low cost GNMA fund and rebalanced to maintain a 50-50 or 60-40 ratio over the same time frame."
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Phil xxxxxx (Inland xxxxCA) replied to your post45 seconds ago.
Honeybee is absolutely correct in this post; Brinker can not/will not admit his failures. It must be a DNA thing that prevents candor INMO.
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Honeybee here: The following post will make sense to some, but many will not know what it is about. I can tell you this much: It has to do with mass censorship of free discussion of a program that is on the national airwaves, and the possible life-changing information that is dispensed on it. I think it needs to be said, and Bld xxxxx said it perfectly:
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As long as the members of the group do not publish proprietary content from Bob, I think it is fine to discuss him - analyze his calls, praise him, or bash him. What Bob is saying on his radio show is public material and can be discussed as freely as we want. Even Bob's position on market timing is openly disclosed by Mark Hulbert etc. So what is Bob going to do? Shutdown Marketwatch as well? Will he shutdown cxoadvisory? Back in 2007 when his record on cxoadvisory was pretty good (I believe he was in the top 5 or so), why did he not complain and shut them down as well at that time?
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Last time I checked, at least for us living in America, we still had the freedom of speech. Barring any IP violations, we are free to discuss anything we want and criticize public personalities. Having a 6 hour nationwide show certainly makes him a public figure. I do not want to turn this into a political argument, but if Bob is so hyper sensitive to his criticism, he is in the wrong job."___Bld xxxx
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As long as the members of the group do not publish proprietary content from Bob, I think it is fine to discuss him - analyze his calls, praise him, or bash him. What Bob is saying on his radio show is public material and can be discussed as freely as we want. Even Bob's position on market timing is openly disclosed by Mark Hulbert etc. So what is Bob going to do? Shutdown Marketwatch as well? Will he shutdown cxoadvisory? Back in 2007 when his record on cxoadvisory was pretty good (I believe he was in the top 5 or so), why did he not complain and shut them down as well at that time?
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Last time I checked, at least for us living in America, we still had the freedom of speech. Barring any IP violations, we are free to discuss anything we want and criticize public personalities. Having a 6 hour nationwide show certainly makes him a public figure. I do not want to turn this into a political argument, but if Bob is so hyper sensitive to his criticism, he is in the wrong job."___Bld xxxx
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