Bear Market Statistics - Bob Brinker Still Fully Invested for 46.7% Decline

Yesterday we had new closing lows on the S&P500 (Charts) and NASDAQ (charts) for this bear market that Bob Brinker has been fully invested in for the whole thing. Last night I posted an article called "Another Bob Brinker Buy Signal Possible" which says that the technical factors Brinker has used in the past suggest he could call another bottom due to the lower close on lower volume. Note, the intraday low set on October 10th has held and we have a series of two higher lows on an intraday basis, another sign of a rally or even a new cyclical bull market. Here is the raw data:

2007-2008 Bear Market Statistics 10/23/08

S&P500 Chart

Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 10/10/08 at 839.80
Current S&P500 Price 916.02
Decline in Points = 660.07
Decline in percent = 41.9%
Max Decline = 46.7%

=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 46.7% and we are currently 41.9% off the peak.

=>The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low was 42.7%

DJIA Charts

Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 10/11/08 at 7,773.71
Current DJIA Price 8,727.49
Decline in Points = 5,552.47
Decline in percent = 38.9%
Max Decline = 45.6%

=>This means the decline from high to low has been 45.6% and we are currently 38.9% off the peak.

=>The decline in the DOW off the closing high to the closing low was 40.3%

NASDAQ Charts

Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 10/10/08 at 1,542.45
Current NASDAQ Price 1,634.76
Decline in Points = 1,226.75
Decline in percent = 42.9%
Max Decline = 46.1%

=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 46.1% and we are currently 0.428707221 42.9% off the peak.

=>The decline in the NASDAQ off the closing high to the closing low was 43.5%

Chart of Bob Brinker "All-In" Buy Levels

Click charts courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size images
More S&P500 Charts

If you want to know what I have been buying in this period of weakness with my profit taking dollars from selling when the market was higher, Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter TODAY and get the October 2008 issue FOR FREE!!


Mustang Ed posted the link to this picture in the comments section. This is Bidwell Mansion in Chico, California, and Ed's Mustang -- What a beauty!

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Bob Brinker Beehive Market Update - April 9, 2008

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Market Statistics

All the major markets remain down double digits off their recent highs made in 2007. The NASDAQ and S&P500 were down over 20% on an intaday basis at their worst while the DOW managed to "only" fall 19.4%.

S&P 500 Chart
(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 03/17/08 at 1,256.98
Current S&P500 Price 1,358.39
Decline in Pts 217.70
Decline in % 13.8%
Max Decline 20.2%

This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 20.2% and we are currently 13.8% off the peak.

The decline from the high to the low on a closing basis is 18.6%
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DJIA Chart
(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 01/22/08 at 11,508.74
Current DJIA Price 12,528.00
Decline in Pts 1751.96
Decline in % 12.3%
Max Decline 19.4%

This means the correction from high to low has been 19.4% and we are currently 12.3% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 17.1%

NASDAQ Chart
(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 03/17/08 at 2,155.42
Current NASDAQ Price 2,330.77
Decline in Pts 530.74
Decline in % 18.5%
Max Decline 24.7%

This means the correction from high to low has been 24.7% and we are currently 18.5% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 24.1%

Bob Brinker:

On January 04, with the 60-DMA of the put/call ratio at a then record of 1.00 and the S&P500 closing the day before at 1,447.16 , we reported here that Bob Brinker said this was bullish.

In his January Marketimer, Bob Brinker reported:

"The 60-day put/call ratio remains in bullish territory as the new year begins."

Brinker remains bullish, does not expect a bear market (as defined as a 20% or more decline in the S&P500) and he looks for new highs to be made in the year ahead.

Click charts courtesy of stockcharts.com to view full sized images

Brinker was so bullish then that he had a Lump Sum Buy for the market in the mid 1400s.

Read:

• Wednesday, December 19, 2007:
  Bob Brinker's Mid 1400's Buying Opportunity

Today the 60 day moving average of the put/call ratio is 10% higher at a new record of 1.10! (See Put Call Ratio 60 Day Moving Average Record High )

On an intraday basis, the S&P500 declined 20.2% and has recovered to be "only" down 13.8% from its peak level as of today.

For more information, see Technical Analysis: Sentiment Indicators

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Click to view the attached (but slow to load) PDF file: Take Profits & Sell Sentiment Indictors from The Market Top.

If you want to know what I have been buying in this period of weakness with my profit taking dollars from selling when the market was higher, Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter TODAY and get the April 2008 issue FOR FREE!
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Stock Market Update

Weekly Market Statistics

It looks like the NASDAQ remains in bear market territory while the others major markets are off their lows and down less than 20%, but still painfully down.

Corrections are regular parts of the market. I see them as great opportunities to accelerate your dollar cost average plans if you are below your target asset allocation and are on a DCA program to get to your target asset allocation. If you are like me and take profits as the market goes up to keep a fairly constant asset allocation, then corrections are great opportunities to get some shares back at cheaper levels to regain your target asset allocation.

Correction Statistics for 03/29/08

S&P 500 Chart
(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 03/17/08 at 1,256.98
Current S&P500 Price 1,315.22
Decline in Pts 260.87
Decline in % 16.6%
Max Decline 20.2%

This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 20.2% and we are currently 16.6% off the peak.

The decline from the high to the low on a closing basis is 18.6%
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DJIA Chart
(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 01/22/08 at 11,508.74
Current DJIA Price 12,216.40
Decline in Pts 2063.56
Decline in % 14.5%
Max Decline 19.4%

This means the correction from high to low has been 19.4% and we are currently 14.5% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 17.1%

NASDAQ Chart
(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 03/17/08 at 2,155.42
Current NASDAQ Price 2,261.18
Decline in Pts 600.33
Decline in % 21.0%
Max Decline 24.7%

This means the correction from high to low has been 24.7% and we are currently 21.0% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 24.1%

Congratulations to anyone who "market timed" from equities to Gold (GLD on this graph) last October!

For more of my recent articles, see:

• Friday, March 28, 2008: ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"
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• Tuesday, March 25, 2008: March Consumer Confidence Falls to Five Year Low
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• Monday, March 24, 2008: Major Newspapers Publish Articles About Possible Depression

BTW, if anyone wants to see what my monthly newsletter sentiment update looks like, then check out this PDF file: "Take Profits & Sell Sentiment Indicators from The Market Top." The page of my newsletter is from last year with the markets near an all time high at 1540.

The S&P500 was at 1540 when I said take profits in my monthly newsletter shortly after we had all five of the indicators say BUY on a correction.

Unlike on October 19, 2007, I am NOT saying to sell or take profits now!!!

Subscribe to my newsletter NOW to see what I recommend today!
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