Bob Brinker Market Timer Subscribers: How Were You Investing A Year Ago?

Bob Brinker likes to talk about how he said he was bullish in January 2009 just before the markets posted double digit gains. Please post what you did a year ago in the comments section. I am especially interested to hear what "long time Marketimer subscribers" did a year ago.

Note: This is "guest blogger" Kirk Lindstrom filling in with an article as Honeybee continues her recovery. She appreciates all the kind comments and words of encouragement but is still not up to writing long articles.

Please post in the comments section how you were investing last year.

What Bob Brinker doesn't tell you or post on his web site is he was so bullish at the start of 2008 that he called for a "gift horse buying opportunity" when the S&P500 was only down a few percent to the mid 1400s! Brinker called many "all in" buys as the market crashed to the 600s with the last buy in the 800s. Anyone following Brinker had nothing to put in from taking profits when the market was higher as I advised when the market was near the peak. See 2007 Profit Taking Alert.

Brinker also doesn't tell you that he bashed anyone like me who warned that a recession was unavoidable. See my March 2008 article (with ECRI) titled:

ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"

Bob Brinker actually called us "Cassandras!" See Honeybees 5/31/08 article:

Cassandra Bashing

Tell us how you were investing a year ago as the market was making a bottom in the 600s. I followed my own advice and was putting cash I took out near the top back into the market into stocks like FNSR at 24¢ ($1.92 split adjusted) and GE at $6.76. See

• FNSR: Finisar up 571% Over Past Year
  
  
• Finisar Mar 3 Buy Alert at 24¢
  (A Slow loading file)

• March 4, 2009 GE Buy Alert
  (A Slow loading file)
  
  
• GE Quote and Charts

I know of two big fans of Bob Brinker that gave up on him at the worst time and switched to a different advisor near the bottom and that advisor missed the turn. I see that as the major danger of following market timers for anything but the "mad money" part of your "explore portfolio."

See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History for a full accounting of Brinker's official advice to the 1980s.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%

Learn the "Core and Explore" approach to investing
with "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter"

Subscribe NOW and get the March 2010 Issue for FREE!!!
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.)

click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

CD Rates, US Treasury Auction Schedule & 10.2% Unemployment Rate

Best CD Rates - Survey of Largest US Banks

Bank	CD Rates - APY in % as of 11/04/09 for $10,000
	6- Mo	11-13 Mo	18-Mo	2-Yrs	3-Yrs	5-Yrs
Bank of America	0.50	1.25 Promo	1.00	2.01	2.30	3.01
JP Morgan Chase	0.75	1.25	1.50	2.00	NA	4yrs 3.00%
Citibank	0.65	1.30	1.35	2.00	2.15	3.00
Wells Fargo Bank	0.35	0.90 16 Mo	1.40 21 Mo	1.90 28 Mo	NA	NA
HSBC Bank North America	0.25	0.55	0.55 15-mo	0.75	0.75	1.01
HSBC Online Rates	1.10	1.50	1.50 15-mo	1.30	NA	NA
US Treasury Rates	0.16	0.36	NA	0.94	1.46	2.38

To see the table in full size with the current rates, click the

• Best CD Rate Survey of the Top US Banks

US Treasury Auction Schedule - Upcoming Offerings

In every issue of The Retirement Advisor Newsletter we cover upcoming US Treasury Auctions with a more complete auction calendar. We also give our estimate for rates for 3 month bills to 30-year bonds plus 5-, 10- and 20-year TIPS.

BTW, our Sept, Oct. and November issues of The Retirement Advisor discuss investments that will do well when inflation returns. Our choice for inflation protection selected for all three model portfolios is up over 10% YTD, leaving GNMA funds in the dust this year. We'll send back issues FOR FREE to any current subscriber who asks. In this issue we tell about the 30-yr TIPS replacing the 20-yr TIPS.

US Unemployment Rate
The U.S. unemployment rate climbed to 10.2% in October, topping the 10% mark for the first time in 26 years. Will Bob Brinker mention the US President by name this weekend?

Historical Chart 1948 to October 2009

Click chart to see article and full size image

POST & READ COMMENTS

Understanding Kirk's Two Newsletters

Click here to start your subscription to The Retirement Advisor now!

The Retirement Advisor Portfolios	Dollar Value on 10/31/09	Change
Model Portfolio 1	$205,877	2.9%
Model Portfolio 2	$218,720	9.4%
Model Portfolio 3	$237,182	18.6%
DJIA 12,501.52 on 1/1/2007	$9,712	(24.0%)
S&P500 1,418.30 on 1/1/2007	$1,057.08	(28.0%)

The Retirement Advisor Model Portfolios all began with $200,000 on 1/1/2007

Kirk's Two Investment Letters

There may be some confusion because I write two different, but related, newsletters.

#1 "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" is $155 a year and uses the "core and explore" method to invest. It has two core portfolios plus an explore portfolio of individual stocks. My aggressive core portfolio has 80% equities while my "conservative" core portfolio has 50% in equities. I recommend people start by getting their proper core portfolio created THEN add individual stocks I cover in my explore portfolio to build your own explore portfolio for 5 to 20% of your investment portfolio total. I have target prices to buy and sell my explore stocks so I find I almost look forward to market declines to get really great prices for stocks I can sell later at higher prices. Of course, following this explore portfolio is more work than buying index funds and rebalancing once a year that I recommend for my core portfolios. Compared to "other newsletters" costing more, my core portfolios and general stock market coverage in the first 11 pages of the 35 page monthly letter offer significant value even for those who don't dabble in individual stocks.

#2 I write "The Retirement Advisor" with David Korn. We sell this for a very modest $99. We offer three model portfolios. We do not recommend individual stocks but we have articles that discuss current financial events such as economic data and Social Security COLAs. We also have articles to help you save money plus we find CDs with FDIC paying the highest rates. Our most aggressive portfolio has 50% in equities. Our most conservative portfolio contains no equity exposure.

Difference: The conservative (50:50) core portfolio in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" is slightly more aggressive than the aggressive model portfolio #1 in "The Retirement Advisor." Over the very long term, you should expect the most aggressive portfolio to have the highest returns but at a price of higher volatility. When we started the "The Retirement Advisor" in 2007 we thought people like Bob Brinker were far too aggressive with equity exposure recommendations for retired people at such a risky time for the markets. If you recall, Brinker's Model Portfolio #3 was nearly 2/3rds in equities when the markets peaked. As our great returns show, we were right.

____

From 1/1/1999 Through 11/09/09

Kirk's 80:20 Aggressive Core Portfolio is up 50.9%
Kirk's 50:50 Conservative Core Portfolio is up 67.3%
Kirk's typically 70:30 Explore Portfolio is up 142.3%
80% Core Aggressive plus 20% Explore is up 69.1%
90% Core Conservative plus 10% Explore is up 74.8%
100% Total Stock Market (VTSMX) is up 18.2%
100% Total Bond Market (VBMFX) is up 77.7%
80% VTSMX and 20% VBMFX is up 30.1%
50% VTSMX and 50% VBMFX is up 47.9%

YTD through 11/09/09

Kirk's 80:20 Aggressive Core Portfolio is up 23.1%
Kirk's 50:50 Conservative Core Portfolio is up 16.5%
Kirk's typically 70:30 Explore Portfolio is up 24.8%

"Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter"
Subscribe NOW and get the November 2009 Issue for FREE! !
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.)
____

The Retirement Advisor Model Portfolios all began with $200,000 on 1/1/2007

The Retirement Advisor Portfolios	Dollar Value on 10/31/09	Change
Model Portfolio 1	$205,877	2.9%
Model Portfolio 2	$218,720	9.4%
Model Portfolio 3	$237,182	18.6%
DJIA 12,501.52 on 1/1/2007	$9,712	(24.0%)
S&P500 1,418.30 on 1/1/2007	$1,057.08	(28.0%)

FREE SAMPLE issue of The Retirement Advisor newsletter in pdf
Website for more information and our annual Performance Data

Treasury Auction Schedule

One way the US government finances its debt is by the sale of marketable Treasury Bills, Notes, Bonds, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS - more info) to the public. Individual investors, through the US Treasury (www.treasurydirect.gov) or their bank and brokerage accounts, have the opportunity to participate in U.S. Treasury note, bill, bond and TIPS auctions without commissions for new issues.

Upcoming US Treasury Auctions

Security Term	CUSIP Number	Auction Date	Issue Date	Maturity Date
91-day Bill	912795S77	10-26-2009	10-29-2009	01-28-2010
182-day Bill	912795UP4	10-26-2009	10-29-2009	04-29-2010
2-yr Note	912828LT5	10-27-2009	11-02-2009	10-31-2011
4.5-yr TIPS	912828KM1	10-26-2009	10-30-2009	04-15-2014
5-yr Note	912828LS7	10-28-2009	11-02-2009	10-31-2014
7-yr Note	912828LU2	10-29-2009	11-02-2009	10-31-2016
29-day Bill	912795Q53	10-27-2009	10-29-2009	note 1
91-day Bill	912795S85	11-02-2009	11-05-2009	note 1
182-day Bill	912795U41	11-02-2009	11-05-2009	note 1

note 1: tentative subject to official announcement

In every issue of The Retirement Advisor Newsletter we cover upcoming US Treasury Auctions with a more complete auction calendar. We also give our estimate for rates for 3 month bills to 30-year bonds plus 5-, 10- and 20-year TIPS.

FREE Sample Issue - Click to Subscribe now

US Treasury Security Facts:

• Marketable securities can be bought, sold or transferred after they are originally issued.
  
• Treasury uses an auction process to sell marketable securities and determine their rate or yield.
  
• The value of Treasury marketable securities fluctuates with changes in interest rates and market demand.
• Marketable securities held in your account can be sold at current market prices through brokers and many financial institutions.

13-WEEK TREASURY BILL (Historical Quotes for: ^IRX)	5-YEAR TREASURY NOTE (Historical Quotes for: ^FVX)

10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE (Historical Quotes for: ^TNX)

Broker Links:

• e-Trade: 866-420-0007
• Fidelity: 800-544-5372
• Schwab: 877-563-7818
• Vanguard: 800-669-0514 8AM-6:30PM ET

For more details, see:

• More about TIPS Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
  
  
• US Treasury Rates at a Glance
  
  
• Tentative U.S. Treasury Auction Schedule - PDF File
  

Two Newsletters:

There may be some confusion because I write two newsletters.

"Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" is $155 a year and uses the "core and explore" method to invest. It has two core portfolios plus an explore portfolio of individual stocks. My aggressive core portfolio has 80% equities while my "conservative" core portfolio has 50% in equities. I recommend people start by getting their proper core portfolio created THEN add individual stocks I cover in my explore portfolio to build your own explore portfolio for 5 to 20% of your investment portfolio total. I have target prices to buy and sell my explore stocks so I find I almost look forward to market declines to get really great prices for stocks I can sell later at higher prices. Of course, following this explore portfolio is more work than buying index funds and rebalancing once a year that I recommend for my core portfolios. Compared to "other newsletters" costing more, my core portfolios and general stock market coverage in the first 11 pages of the 35 page monthly letter offer significant value even for those who don't dabble in individual stocks.

I write "The Retirement Advisor" with David Korn. We sell this for a very modest $99. We offer three model portfolios. We do not recommend individual stocks but we have articles that discuss current financial events such as economic data and Social Security COLAs. We also have articles to help you save money plus we find CDs with FDIC paying the highest rates. Our most aggressive portfolio has 50% in equities. Our most conservative portfolio contains no equity exposure.

The conservative (50:50) core portfolio in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" is slightly more aggressive than the aggressive model portfolio #1 in "The Retirement Advisor." Over the very long term, you should expect the most aggressive portfolio to have the highest returns but at a price of higher volatility. Our idea when we started the "The Retirement Advisor" in 2007 is we thought people like Bob Brinker were far too aggressive with equity exposure recommendations for retired people at such a risky time for the markets. As our great returns show, it was good timing.

Bear Market Statistics - Bob Brinker Still Fully Invested for 46.7% Decline

Yesterday we had new closing lows on the S&P500 (Charts) and NASDAQ (charts) for this bear market that Bob Brinker has been fully invested in for the whole thing. Last night I posted an article called "Another Bob Brinker Buy Signal Possible" which says that the technical factors Brinker has used in the past suggest he could call another bottom due to the lower close on lower volume. Note, the intraday low set on October 10th has held and we have a series of two higher lows on an intraday basis, another sign of a rally or even a new cyclical bull market. Here is the raw data:

2007-2008 Bear Market Statistics 10/23/08

S&P500 Chart

Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 10/10/08 at 839.80
Current S&P500 Price 916.02
Decline in Points = 660.07
Decline in percent = 41.9%
Max Decline = 46.7%

=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 46.7% and we are currently 41.9% off the peak.

=>The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low was 42.7%

DJIA Charts

Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 10/11/08 at 7,773.71
Current DJIA Price 8,727.49
Decline in Points = 5,552.47
Decline in percent = 38.9%
Max Decline = 45.6%

=>This means the decline from high to low has been 45.6% and we are currently 38.9% off the peak.

=>The decline in the DOW off the closing high to the closing low was 40.3%

NASDAQ Charts

Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 10/10/08 at 1,542.45
Current NASDAQ Price 1,634.76
Decline in Points = 1,226.75
Decline in percent = 42.9%
Max Decline = 46.1%

=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 46.1% and we are currently 0.428707221 42.9% off the peak.

=>The decline in the NASDAQ off the closing high to the closing low was 43.5%

Chart of Bob Brinker "All-In" Buy Levels

Click charts courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size images
More S&P500 Charts

If you want to know what I have been buying in this period of weakness with my profit taking dollars from selling when the market was higher, Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter TODAY and get the October 2008 issue FOR FREE!!


Mustang Ed posted the link to this picture in the comments section. This is Bidwell Mansion in Chico, California, and Ed's Mustang -- What a beauty!

LINK TO POST COMMENTS TO KIRK'S ARTICLE

High Inflation Data Good News for I-Bonds & TIPS

Bob Brinker should have fun explaining how this high inflation data is good news for iBonds (Inflation Protected Bonds) and TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) this weekend.

I posted two articles at the "Bob Brinker Fan Club Blog" worth reading. They are:

• Wednesday, April 16, 2008:
  I-Bond Rates To Soar on High Inflation Data
  .
• Tuesday, April 15, 2008
  March Inflation Up on Higher Energy and Food Costs

Vanguard's TIPS index fund (VIPSX) was up 11.59% in 2007 and is up 4.74% YTD in anticipation of these high inflation readings. With inflation expected to moderate, I don't expect to see this level of performance continue.

Disclaimer: I have a fairly large position in TIPS in both my personal account and some of the newsletter porfolios in "The Retirement Advisor" investment letter. I also recommend TIPS as part of a 3-item alternative to the easy to track "Total Bond Fund" in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" where I may again recommend iBonds with these attractive rates.
.

Rates for CDs, iBonds, TIPS and US Treasuries

From the Highest CD Rates Survey at forbestadvice.com, the best CD rate is 5.00% at Pentagon Federal Credit Union for a 7-year CD.

Below are some more rates and terms for the highest yield CDs

• 6 Months 4.75% at Countrywide Bank
• 1-year 4.00% at Excel National Bank
• 2 years 3.86% at Corus Bank & 3.85% @ Intervest National Bank
• 3 years 4.00% at Eastern Savings & 3.97% @ Ascencia
• 5 years 4.25% at Eastern Savings & 4.00% @ Capital One Bank
• 7 years 5.00% at Pentagon Federal Credit Union
• 10 years 4.16% at Capital One Bank

Today's US Treasury (T-Bond) Rates are:

• 3-month treasury bill currently pays 2.31%
• 6-month treasury bill currently pays 2.13%
• 2-yr treasury note pays 1.96%
• 5-yr treasury note pays 2.73%
• 10-year treasury bond pays 3.68%
• 30-year treasury bond pays 4.46%.

Compare that to my December 9th Survey that said:

• The 3-month treasury bill currently pays 3.07%, the 5-yr treasury note pays 3.50%, the 10-year treasury bond pays 4.11% and the 30-year T-Bond pays 4.57%.

I-Bonds (iBonds) currently pay 4.28% (I-Bond Details)

TIPS or Treasury Inflation Protected Securities currently pay

• 5-year TIPS 0.52%
• 10-year TIPS 1.37%
• 20-year TIPS 1.80%
• 30-year TIPS 1.75%

(TIPS pay that yield plus the principal is adjusted according to the CPI inflation )

More terms and rates at Best CD Rates.