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Sunday, May 23, 2010

Bob Brinker's Secular Bear Megatrend: First He Saw it, Then He Didn't, Now he Sees it Again

Bob Brinker seems to be very good at spotting those market trends in the rear-view mirror. It's just too bad that Bob Brinker doesn't have enough integrity to tell the whole truth. Instead, he just leapfrogs backwards over his blunders. Why do I say that? Here's why:

Sunday, a caller asked Bob Brinker if he thought we were still in a secular bear market. Brinker told the caller, yes, it began in the first quarter of year-2000 and this is the 11th year of it. Brinker just happened to neglect to say that he had taken a little detour from this bit of market-timing shtick over those eleven years:

Brinker first spotted that secular bear market in August, 2001:

August 2001 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:

"U.S. stock market entered a secular bear market in the first
quarter of year 2000.

Standard and Poor's 500 Index: 1527.46 = March 24, 2000

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11722.98 = January 14, 2000 "

June, 2007, just months before the market reached its all-time-high, Brinker said that the "secular bear megatrend" had retroactively ended in June, 2006.

June, 2007, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:
"In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P 500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."
In May, 2009, just months after the market had dropped 55%+, Brinker changed his mind and said that the secular bear megatrend hadn't ended after all.

May, 2009 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:

"Although it appeared to us that the secular bear megatrend that began in year-2000 had reached its conclusion, there is no question that the secular bear megatrend remains intact...."

Brinker explained to the caller that his "timing model" work is based on cyclical markets. Maybe that explains why the return to an intact secular bear market. Can you have a cyclical bull market inside of a secular bull market? I don't know, but it sure wouldn't be as exciting, would it?

== > In Edit: June, 2011: Bob Brinker has not changed his stance on the secular/cyclical aspect of the stock market. He believes the cyclical bull market is intact within a secular bear market. Brinker's model portfolios are still fully invested and he advises dollar-cost-averaging for new money:

May 2011 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "....we prefer a doll-cost-average approach for new stock market money.....All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested."

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