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Friday, July 11, 2008

Bob Brinker Bullish; S&P Bearish

Dow and S&P at Two-Year Lows
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Bob Brinker's stock market allocations and Model Portfolios have been 100% invested since March 2003. That was a great call until we reached the October 2007 all-time-record-high. At that time, Brinker was looking for MORE new highs and predicting the S&P 500 Index would trade into the mid-1600's. It's been a downhill trend ever since.
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Bob Brinker missed the January/February correction and he missed this bear market. I'm sorry to say it, but this past year, Brinker has actually been on the wrong side of the market more often than not.
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Where is the stock market now? Firmly in bear territory. The S&P 500 Index down another 1.9% this week -- the 6th weekly drop. The Dow and S&P 500 Index are both at two-year lows.
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Brinker's current stock market views:
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1. Long-term secular bull market as of June, 2006.
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2. Intermediate-term bull market -- lowered all-in buy-level to low-1300's in February 2008.
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3. Short-term bull market -- lows "successfully tested" in March 2008 -- recommends dollar-cost-averaging all new stock market money.

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How many people do you think will try to call Brinker's Moneytalk this weekend and ask about the stock market? How many do you think will actually get on the air? I will try again like I did last week (I didn't get through the busy signal).
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Some have suggested that Brinker will briefly state that the oil situation has caused the market's troubles and that he has been saying it was the wild card. Thus, not only excusing himself, but actually taking credit for "being right," -- and never mention it again until the market recovers. I have no clue how what he will say. We shall know in the fullness of time. 8~)

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On a note of peace and beauty: These are lotus that bloom in the lake I walk around each day. In the U.S., they are a relatively rare water-flower. I took the pictures this morning:
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