Bob Brinker's Timing Model Misses Another Bear

In January 2008, Bob Brinker said that he did not "expect" the correction to be so severe. Later, he thought the March lows were the correction-bottom. May 31st, he was sure the market was in an uptrend (see my May 31st Moneytalk Summary).

However, when the stock market started down again the first week in June, Brinker began to back-pedal, and two weeks ago said that it had a "direct correlation" to the price of oil. In the July Marketimer, Brinker said: "....our stock market forecast is subject to a stabilization or decline in oil prices."
.
The price of oil dropped about almost $4 today, but the S&P dropped into bear territory....Oops! 8~)

It's official, the S&P 500 Index closed down 20% from the October 2007 all time highs. These statistics were provided by Kirk Lindstrom:

.
Correction Statistics for 07/07/08
.
S&P 500 Chart (Using Intraday prices): http://home.netcom.com/~kirklindstrom/Charts/SnP500.html
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 07/07/08 at 1,240.68
Current S&P500 Price 1,252.31
Decline in Pts 323.78
Decline in % 20.5%
Max Decline 21.3%
=>This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 21.3% and we are currently 20.5% off the peak.
=>The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low is 20.0%
.
Here are the S&P Correction Statistics Closing prices:
.

S&P 500 Closing
Date of last high 10/09/07
Last Market High 1,565.15
Date of last low 07/07/08
Correction Low 1,252.29
Decline in Pts 312.86
Decline in % 20.0%

.
DJIA Chart (Using Intraday prices): http://home.netcom.com/~kirklindstrom/Charts/DJIA.html .
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 07/07/08 at 11,120.74
Current DJIA Price 11,231.96
Decline in Pts 3048.00
Decline in % 21.3%
Max Decline 22.1%
=>This means the correction from high to low has been 22.1% and we are currently 21.3% off the peak.
=>The decline in the DOW off the closing high to the closing low has been 20.8% .

NASDAQ Chart (Using Intraday prices): http://home.netcom.com/~kirklindstrom/Charts/NASDAQ.html
Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 03/17/08 at 2,155.42
Current NASDAQ Price 2,243.32
Decline in Pts 618.19
Decline in % 21.6%
Max Decline 24.7%
=>This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 24.7% and we are currently 21.6% off the peak.
=>The decline in the NASDAQ off the closing high to the closing low has been 24.1%

.


.
This is the third bear market that Bob Brinker's timing model has missed. Please see the David Korn quote in my previous article.

.