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On Moneytalk, just the week before the worst June in many years of stock market history happened, Bob Brinker claimed that the lows were successfully tested in March:
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Moneytalk, May 31, 2008, with the Dow at 12, 638, the S&P 500 Index at 1400 and the Nasdaq at 2522, Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend."
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Interestingly, some Brinker-fans are claiming that Brinker's timing model is technically still correct and that it has not missed calling a bear market because the S&P has not closed at exactly a 20% decline yet. (Please see Kirk's 7/02/08 stock market statistics.)
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Octavian, a long-term Bob Brinker defender, said "--No. It hasn't missed one yet."
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Honeybee wrote the following response:
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Nitpicking over 0.6% on the S&P while the Dow and Nasdaq (25%) are firmly in bear territory is beyond comical.
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Too bad you didn't listen to Flanagan this weekend. Several times, he came right out and said it in plain English. We are in a bear market.
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When Larry Swedroe was guest speaker on Moneytalk a while back, he said it in plain English. We are in a bear market.
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Brinker is still claiming we are in a cyclical bull market -- he did away with the secular bear megatrend -- and he's looking for the S&P to return to the 1400's range (can you believe it?). But now, in the July 2008 Marketimer, Brinker said: "....our stock market forecast is subject to a stabilization or decline in oil prices."
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And Octavian, did you read what Stock Bull wrote on the other message board? Here it is:
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"Did you get the July Newsletter? I see that Brinker hasn't given an estimate for the S&P. He just recommends dollar cost averaging and is blaming this mess on oil prices. I can't help but wonder why he just doesn't recommend going into cash. Or, at least raising one's cash position.
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Stock Bull"
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Octavian, what Stock Bull said is absolutely true. Brinker did not mention any all-in-buy-level in the July Marketimer, and he certainly didn't mention the "low-1300s". Perhaps he is looking for a new "bottom" like he did in January/February 2008. LOL!!
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So Octavian, as Stock Bull said, Brinker has it set up now so that dollar-cost averaging into the market is what he recommends. But you might want to do so at your own risk, because even though he's bullish and his "timing model" is in "favorable territory," he evidently can't be held responsible for any of his forecasts if the price of oil keeps going up.
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June 28, 2007, Bob Brinker said: “Here on Moneytalk, if you have been with us, you know we have been talking about the importance of oil prices and energy here on our Moneytalk broadcast. And we see the importance of oil prices in today’s economy --we see it with a direct correlation. We saw just this week between rising oil prices and the stock market, with the S&P 500 trading at 1278 at this juncture. And we look at what’s happened to oil prices and they spiked to a new all-time-historic-record on Thursday and Friday, closing on Friday a little above $140 per barrel."
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David Korn wrote the following Bob Brinker bear market commentary in his July 5-6, 2008 Newsletter. Posted with David's permission:
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Bob Brinker has missed bear markets in the past. In the late
80s, he missed one, but he claims to have changed his timing
model after that to include the Sentiment Indicator. Also,
back in 1998, the Dow declined 19.4% on a closing basis,
and 21% on an intra-day basis he stayed fully invested.
Of course, the market went on a tear after the bottom was in,
and daBrink claimed that his model had stayed correctly
invested since it wasn't technically a 20% decline on a
closing basis. But if you remember back to
1998, sitting through a 19% plus decline wasn't any
walk in the park.
If the S&P 500 manages to stay above the 1262 level
on a closing basis, I am sure Bob will crow again
that his model worked as it should have. Personally,
I think we will get the bear on a closing basis. Stay
tuned."
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David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob
Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials,
and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2008
David Korn's Website
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