However, when the stock market started down again the first week in June, Brinker began to back-pedal, and two weeks ago said that it had a "direct correlation" to the price of oil. In the July Marketimer, Brinker said: "....our stock market forecast is subject to a stabilization or decline in oil prices."
The price of oil dropped about almost $4 today, but the S&P dropped into bear territory....Oops! 8~)
It's official, the S&P 500 Index closed down 20% from the October 2007 all time highs. These statistics were provided by Kirk Lindstrom:
Correction Statistics for 07/07/08
Chart (Using Intraday prices): http://home.netcom.com/~kirklindstrom/Charts/SnP500.html
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 07/07/08 at 1,240.68
Current S&P500 Price 1,252.31
Decline in Pts 323.78
Decline in % 20.5%
Max Decline 21.3%
=>This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 21.3% and we are currently 20.5% off the peak.
=>The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low is 20.0%
Here are the S&P Correction Statistics Closing prices:
S&P 500 Closing
Date of last high 10/09/07
Last Market High 1,565.15
Date of last low 07/07/08
Correction Low 1,252.29
Decline in Pts 312.86
Decline in % 20.0%
Chart (Using Intraday prices): http://home.netcom.com/~kirklindstrom/Charts/DJIA.html .
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 07/07/08 at 11,120.74
Current DJIA Price 11,231.96
Decline in Pts 3048.00
Decline in % 21.3%
Max Decline 22.1%
=>This means the correction from high to low has been 22.1% and we are currently 21.3% off the peak.
=>The decline in the DOW off the closing high to the closing low has been 20.8% .
Chart (Using Intraday prices): http://home.netcom.com/~kirklindstrom/Charts/NASDAQ.html
Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 03/17/08 at 2,155.42
Current NASDAQ Price 2,243.32
Decline in Pts 618.19
Decline in % 21.6%
Max Decline 24.7%
=>This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 24.7% and we are currently 21.6% off the peak.
=>The decline in the NASDAQ off the closing high to the closing low has been 24.1%
This is the third bear market that Bob Brinker's timing model has missed. Please see the David Korn quote in my previous article.