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Thursday, July 24, 2008

Bob Brinker's S&P and Oil Price Direct Correlation

Bob Brinker's latest tactical maneuver is to claim that the stock market has developed a "direct correlation" to the price of oil -- and that only a "fool" would try to predict the future price of oil.
This maneuver seems to be a response to the fact that his "timing model" missed this 20%+ BEAR market -- he has raised no cash reserves and his Model Portfolios are 100% invested.
On Moneytalk July 19th said (S&P at 1260.68): "The price of oil went down and the stock market went up. Oil prices taking their biggest tumble since 2004 – lost about $16 a barrel, but still trading at the ridiculously high price of $128.88 per barrel."
  • Today, the S&P 500 Index closed at: 1252.54
  • Today, Oil closed at: 125.46
Moneytalk Excerpts, May 31, 2008 (Oil was at $127.56; S&P at 1400) Bob Brinker said:
“So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears……… “What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now.......“……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter......."
So oil is now selling lower than when Brinker was ridiculing the "Cassandras" and the "False prophets" for "scaring people out of the market at 1400" -- which was just a couple of days before the start of the worst June in over 50 years and the arrival of a bear market (even by Brinker's own definition).

But no matter what, if you are reading this, you haven't been eaten by this bear like a couple of Russian men were: =8~0

Now this is a BEAR!

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