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As of today, the S&P is back down in bear territory again, but the price of oil is LOWER than when Brinker was so bullish at S&P 1400 on June 1st. OUCH!
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June 1, 2008, Moneytalk (S&P 500 @ 1400.38 -- Oil at $124) Bob Brinker said: “...….if you have been listening to our broadcast, you were tuned in when I made the comment that I rated the stock market attractive for purchase when it got down in the area of those March correction lows – down there in the low-1300’s vicinity. And as it turns out, the March correction low was less than 3% on a closing from the initial January correction low – less than 3% -- which meant that it fit the mold perfectly for a successful correction test. The stock market marches to its own drummer. The stock market is marching to the drummer of a better 2009 than 2000 and 2008. The stock market is marching to a drummer of signs of economic improvement beginning to improve by the second half of this year."
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July 13, 2008 (S&P 500 @ 1239.49 -- Oil at 144.95) Moneytalk Bob Brinker said: “One of the topics we’ve been talking about on Moneytalk is what has been going on in the stock market and how that has been related to the price of a barrel of oil and the correlation that we’ve been discussing on Moneytalk. (Honeybee EC: That is simply not true, as my Summaries clearly show.) I think the stock market really is marching to the drummer known as oil right now. I think oil prices are the ax right now in the stock market."
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August 4, 2008: S&P closed in bear territory at 1249.01
August 4, 2008: Oil closed at 121.13
Honeybee's Guest Brinker Commentator
."Newslettercheat" writes about Bob Brinker's "switcheroo":
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"Where are those touting Brinker's claim that the market moved only because of oil prices?
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When Brinker was his most bullish around the 1st of June, oil was about 130 bucks and the S&P was in the low 1400s. Brinker claimed everything was hunky dory and it was UP UP AND AWAY. He bashed those who were bearish calling them "Cassandras" and "False Prophets"
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Then it turned out Brinker was wrong. The bear hit, but Brinker never mentioned that fact. Instead Brinker looked for a scapegoat. He chose oil. He claimed there was a direct inverse relationship between oil and stock prices and that it was the sole determinant. According to Honey's great summary, the slick one didn't mention that alibi all last weekend.
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Reason? Oil has fallen 25 bucks a barrel and the market has been very anemic. Yesterday oil was down significantly and so was the market. Over this big decline in oil prices there has been a disconnect with Brinker's premise because the market has stayed low.
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Indeed I think I saw one guy making a fool out of himself pointing out days when the market went up and oil went down and saying nothing when the reverse was the case. It looks like he's learned that Brinker was blowing smoke.
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Neither Brinker or I know what is going to happen with oil or stock prices, but I think Brinker bought into the "peak oil" scenario and I rather believe those claiming this is a commodities bubble are correct. The third bubble we've seen in recent years.
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Anybody who puts much stock in Brinker's words, is bound to look silly because he will pull a switcheroo if it doesn't suit the scenario he finds himself in.
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If there would be an inverse relationship of note, Brinker will mention the correlation between oil and stock prices next weekend. If there is no such relationship; there will be no more mention of oil." ___Newslettercheat
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