As of the August 5th, 2008 issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker still has not acknowledged the fact that the stock market dropped into bear market territory. And he has never mentioned the bear market on Moneytalk.
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Bob Brinker views the market action since the first quarter as an "extended bottoming process" similar to what occurred in 1994. Brinker concludes that this "bottoming process" has extended over a period of seven months so far.
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Brinker completely ignores the fact that he said on Moneytalk that the market had bottomed in March, 2008 and that he expected it to be on an "upward trend" from there. He simply moved on to a new market-timing scenario after the market continued down into bear territory in July -- AFTER he said it had bottomed.
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In the latest Marketimer, Brinker's only explanation for having TOTALLY missed this bear market decline is that "stock market timing is a very difficult exercise" and that this "overall decline has exceeded our expectations."
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As Brinker said on Moneytalk in July, he regards oil prices as the key to stock market prices now. Clearly, he has adopted an "if" or "only" scenario to his market predictions. IOW: His bullishness on the market only applies "if" oil prices decline and "if" interest rates stay low, even though he has made no changes to his 100% invested position for equity allocations.
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In my opinion, if one happened to sink all "new money" into the market based on Brinker's August 2007 to January 20, 2008 "mid-1400's" all-in buy-level, one may not have had any "new money" to put in his February 2008 "low-1300's" buy-level, or his most recent and much lower buy-level.
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Is that what's known as covering one's errr....bases or is it simply "make it up as you go"? 8~)
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