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2. January 2000: Brinker 40% invested and said the market was "unfavorable" until August 2000.
3. June (worst June in 50 years) and July, 2008 (20%+ decline): Brinker 100% invested and bullish.
Bob Brinker made several costly blunders over the years that seem to have been written in disappearing ink. Long-term Brinker-historian and expert, Investing, wrote about some of them:
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"Perhaps this exchange shows why Marketiming Ragsellers should never be trusted and any claims of performance are at least in Brinker's case PURE D BS.
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I, apparently like Honey, recalled Brinker's move in January 2000 differently............ Brinker took a little over half out of the market in Jan 2000 (60%)................
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I did not think there was a link to Brinker's allocation model for the highly touted TEFQX recommendation. Perhaps nothing other than the QQQ ACT IMMEDIATELY bulletin received as much hype after UTEK fizzled than Brinker's love affair with B2B and TEFQX, and the First Hand fund guru Landis. Now this man [Brinker] that alibi artists today want to describe as "bearish" in January 2000, had on his site a very active discussion thread on B2Bs. His son, the Junior Pup, at the time had company after company listed in the B2B space that the Brinker's were excited about, claiming it was "in the early innings".
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Even the hatchetman for Brinker who also had a thread on Brinker's site, Justa, warned Junior he had better calm down the hype he was creating on Brinker's site for these B2B funds and stocks. Indeed it was a way one can prove unequivocally that Junior was posting on this site. Justa was urging him on this site to put some disclaimers on the hype Junior was using to pimp this "space".
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On Brinker's site you had people long past retirement trading B2B stocks like it was a bingo parlor. It was as if Brinker was only saying "the old economy stocks" are going down; but "my call has nothing to do with the Nasdaq". He said that many times as the Nasdaq went up after his call and never warned of any problem with the bubblemania that was developing. Indeed every month - Jan Feb and March he had glowing praise for the TEFQX fund in the newsletter that now the alibi artists want to portray as bearish.
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Math pointed out that people acting on Brinker's hype (this was both on the radio and in the newsletter in addition to on Brinker's website) to buy TEFQX were supposed to sell other stock/fund holdings to purchase it to stay within the allocation guidelines. This would mean that lets just say a person had his portfolio I allocation as it is today, to comply with the guidelines and purchase TEFQX, he would have say sell some of the index fund in the portfolio I to buy the TEFQX. With all the hype and the warning is that "for those who can accept volatility" and the near hysteria about this B2B "space" that the Brinker's were creating, no doubt many people did this.
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So Brinker kept TEFQX as a buy until the spring of 2001. It had fallen from a high of 18.00 to under 4.00/share. Brinker that month moved TEFQX to a "hold". It was NEVER MENTIONED AGAIN.
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So Math obviously knew that. He was quick to point out a paragraph where Brinker said that TEFQX was to be fit inside that 25% allocation to US equities. It is obvious that would cause someone to buy that with monies in funds in the model portfolio if they wanted to participate in this "best" idea of Brinker--he spent a whole page touting this as the best thing since sliced bread at the same time reducing the allocation to equities.
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Math claims it was a recommendation to be put in the 25% left in equities. It would count on one's portfolio performance every bit as any other recommendation if using REAL MONEY. This was a totally boneheaded pick. It dropped 90% during the bear market and now is around 4 bucks 8 years later. As Math surely knows; Brinker NEVER closed out a position for up to 5% of an entire portfolio. He just moved it to a HIDE.
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Not at all unlike the QQQ debacle in which Brinker sent an urgent message to all subscribers to ACT IMMEDIATELY if they wanted to make "20% or MORE GAINS IN TWO TO FOUR MONTHS" . I would submit almost everyone would want to make 20% or more gains so the alibi "for those who want to take advantage of this opportunity" excluded anyone is silly. But the truth is that Brinker, in that missive, recommended up to half the money taken out of the stock market including all stocks, all mutual funds in and out of model portfolios to be used to buy QQQs.
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He tenaciously held this position from the $80s where the Qs traded in Oct 2000, all the way down to $19 and change. He has NEVER ISSUED A SELL on this position for up to 1/3 of a portfolio that is still down about 50% 8 long years later. He hides this position from any mention in his performance. He very deceptively added 25.00 QQQs to each portfolio when he made his March 2003 portfolio and has pretended on the radio that is the only QQQs he has recommended.
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What this shows and what Math knows--Brinker is slick and deceptive. He recommended TEFQX for up to 5% of a portfolio--a specific recommendation with specific parameters within the 25% of US equities. He kept it as a buy for a year. It tanked. It disappeared from coverage and the position was never closed out.
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With the QQQs he used the monies taken from equities, including model portfolios, and urged subscribers to buy and hold QQQs to this very day. After Feb, 2003, however like with TEFQX, Brinker never speaks of the recommendation that represents a considerable portion of someone who followed his advice to the letter to this very day. Only an asterik in Hulbert and a few posts on the internet keep people like Brinker, and [a few others] from hiding this most deceptive way of accounting for financial advice.
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I want to know where people who took Brinker's advice can go to a broker and drop investments that fall 80% from their portfolio, get there money back and invest the same money again without accounting for the loss. Brinker takes mulligans and pretends bad advice has no impact. That is the secret to fooling people in believing he is a successful financial advisor.__Investing
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Fun Stuff, Seabiscuit's Brinker-Shaves
.He attacked the bears
Again and again and again
Then he bought the QQQs
And went down the drain
Brinker Shave!
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Let me tell you, Ms. Bee
How I beat Warren B
I bought more than a bag
Of Bob's timing rag
Brinker Shave!
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Some peaceful beauty
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I took this picture on one of my morning walks. Don't miss the ducks. Babies are hiding in the Lotus:
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