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Friday, August 8, 2008

In Spite of Russian War, Stock Market Up; Oil Down Today

Bob Brinker is still making stock market predictions even though he is now on record saying that the price of oil is "directly correlated" to the stock market and only a "fool" believes he (the fool) can predict the price of Oil. Moneytalk, July 12, 2008, Bob Brinker said: "Now I wish I could tell you what the price of oil is going to be in a week, a month, a year. I don’t know. I have no way of knowing and I think only a fool would try to forecast the price of a barrel of oil in the world we live in…….”
Today the S&P closed at 1296.31 -- up 2.39%;
Oil closed at 115.09 -- down 4.1%

David Korn wrote:
".....Bob has now acknowledged
the inability to predict oil prices.
This is not something new for Bob. He has previously changed
his opinion on whether interest rates can be predicted (now
opting for the view that they can't), and he seems to have
given up on picking any new individual stocks.

The last refuge is the stock market in general. With his
position that you can't predict where oil prices are going,
given Bob's view that it the stock market is going to react
to oil prices, the logical conclusion is that you can't
predict where the stock market is going. But there was
no indication this weekend that Bob has given up on market
timing, or his model for that matter."
July 9, 2008, Mark Hulbert published an article in Barron's titled: Where Do Stocks Go From Here? Here is an excerpt from Hulbert's article:

"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early July, Editor Bob Brinker reported that his stock-market timing model remains in favorable territory. However, he cautioned that oil's price constitutes a "wild card." "In the event oil prices continue to rise, consumers and the stock market will be held hostage to the cost of energy. This would provide a strong headwind against the economic recovery process. If oil prices stabilize or decline from current levels, we believe stock prices can make progress into 2009." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested."
Mark Hulbert quoted from the July 3, 2008 Marketimer. On that day, the S&P closed at 1262.90, and the price of Oil was $145.31.


However, all that being said, today, in spite of the bad news that war has broken out in Russia, the stock market closed up today -- way up, and Oil closed down. Based on today, one would be tempted to believe that Brinker is right -- that Oil truly is the stock market's "wildcard." 8~)
I predict that Brinker will talk about the stock market this weekend, but here's a bit of humor from SeaBiscuit:
"Talk about anything - baseball or football

Oil or gas or water or even just plain air

Anything to distract attention

From the big brown bear

Brinker Shave!"
I've only been to Oklahoma twice in my life, but find that it has a great beauty that is quite different from what I'm used to on the West Coast. This was taken looking out of a cousin's huge "barn" just before a terrifying
(to me) lightening storm hit. =80

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