Brinker's Portfolio Takes Over 20% Hit

Bob Brinker was a raging bull as the year 2008 began. He was forecasting that new highs would occur in 2008! He was forecasting that the S&P 500 Index would reach the 1600's in 2008! He had been repeatedly recommending the S&P 500 Index level "mid-1400's" as "attractive for purchase" for those who happened to come into new money to invest in equities.
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When the correction hit the first week in January, he mentioned on Moneytalk that it was more than he had "expected." (That was rather the understatement in light of what he actually had been expecting. LOL!)
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January 20th, Brinker canceled his long standing "mid-1400's" buy level and continued to recommend dollar-cost-averaging new money into the market.
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February 10th, 2008, Brinker issued a lower "attractive for purchase" buy level at "low-1300's" and later bragged that the March lows were the "bottom" he'd been looking for. (Note that this was the third buy level that Brinker had recommended in less than a year.)
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April 4, 2007 Marketimer (S&P 1424) Bob Brinker said: “Marketimer currently rates the stock market as attractive for purchase during periods of weakness in the vicinity of the S&P 500 Index 1380 level or lower.”

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January 4, 2008 Marketimer (S&P 1468) Bob Brinker said: “ We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range."

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May 10, 2008, Brinker said the following to a Moneytalk audience:
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"Look, we have people on the program that have different views than me, I’ve told you……I mentioned last week we had a recent guest on the program back when the market was at the lows – when the market was down around 1300 in the S&P……..he was bearish as a (unintelligible) bears. And I remember telling the audience, I said look, it’s a free and open exchange of ideas. This is not my view. I happened to be very bullish at that time.

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In fact, at that time, I happened to have a buy signal on the market when the market was down around 1300. But he was coming with his bearish views………”

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Moneytalk, May 31, 2008, Brinker was busily bashing the "bad news bears" and "cassandras," while the S&P 500 was at 1400 and $Oil was at $127 per barrel.

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In June and July the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all dropped precipitously into bear market territory. How did Brinker respond? On Moneytalk, he did not mention the bear market (he never has mentioned it on Moneytalk), but in Marketimer, he issued a THIRD and LOWER "attractive for purchase" buy level at "weakness below the S&P 500 Index 1240 level," with NO further word about of the prior, higher buy levels. Throughout all this time and all these changing-lower buy levels, Brinker has recommended dollar-cost-averaging new money into the stock market, and his model portfolios I & II have remained 100% in the stock market.

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Additionally, as a response to the "official" bear market happening, Brinker began to claim that the S&P was "directly correlated" and "inversely correlated" to the price of Oil. He said that his market forecasts were dependent on the oil "wild card" and that only a "fool" thinks he can predict the future price of oil. (Brinker excerpts)

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August 5, 2008 Marketimer, Page 3; Paragraph 3; for the first time ever in his newsletter, Bob Brinker said: "In Summary, we continue to regard oil prices as the key variable for stock prices."

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May 31, 2008, the S&P 500 was at 1400 and $Oil was at $127 per barrel.

As of today, the S&P is at 1300.68 and Oil is 115.61

Anyone see an "inverse correlation" so far?

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