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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Bob Brinker's S&P and $Oil "Inverse Correlation"

As Bob Brinker said about the market last Saturday: "It was no big deal one way or the other, but on balance, it had a decent week." I sure don't see much "inverse correlation" in these numbers. Wonder if anyone believes this premise is true?
Last Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 1298.20: This week it dropped to 1292.20 -- down 0.44%

Last Friday, $Oil closed at 113.75: This week it rose to 114.65 -- up 0.76%

Tracking Bob Brinker's claim that there is an
" inverse correlation between oil and the S&P 500."
July 13, 2008 (S&P 500 @ 1239.49 -- Oil at 144.95) Moneytalk Bob Brinker said: “One of the topics we’ve been talking about on Moneytalk is what has been going on in the stock market and how that has been related to the price of a barrel of oil and the correlation that we’ve been discussing on Moneytalk. I think the stock market really is marching to the drummer known as oil right now. I think oil prices are the ax right now in the stock market." (Honeybee EC: As my Summaries clearly show, Brinker first made the Oil/S&P connection the first weekend of July. And the July issue of Marketimer was the first time he wrote about it. Before that, he always talked about the price of oil as it pertained to inflation. He has always claimed that rising energy prices were NOT inflationary.)

Monday, August 18, 2008:

  • S&P 500 Index closed at 1278.60 -- down 1.51%
  • Oil closed at $112.87 -- down 0.77%
Tuesday, August 19, 2008:
  • S&P 500 Index closed at 1266.69 -- down 0.93%
  • Oil closed at 114.53 -- up 1.5%
Wednesday, August 20, 2008:

  • S&P 500 Index closed at 1274.54 -- up 0.62%
  • Oil closed at 114.98 -- up 0.39%
Thursday, August 21, 2008:
  • S&P 500 Index closed at 1277.72 -- up 0.25%
  • Oil closed at 121.32 -- up 4.98%

Friday, August 22, 2008:
  • S&P 500 Index closed at 1292.20 -- up 1.13%
  • Oil closed at 114.65 -- down 5.39%

Some Fans of Seabiscuit's Brinker-Shave have chipped in with their own Brinker-Shaves.
Enjoy: 8~)

Jody said...

I love SeaBiscuit's Burma Shave idea, so here's my two cents:

He timed well in 2000 and 2003
Was it just luck, or real wizardry?
I stuck with the program, but now it’s certain,
His model doesn’t work, and my IRA’s hurtin’

Brinker Shave
Blogger Tom T said...

I loved the Brinker-Shaves by Seabiscuit. As one who has had his portfolio "shaved" by following the Marketimer, may I offer the following?
Save your 185

The Cassandras yell,

Why only buy

And never Sell?


Theres bears ahead,

Remember Sonny

That Marketimer

Didn't save the bunny.


The Marketimer

Will let you down

Quicker than

A Strapless Gown.


Many a fortune

Used to stand

Where the Marketimer

Got out of hand.


In this valley

Of toil and sin,

Your portfolio grows bald,

But not your chin.


Honeybee, thanks for this site -- and my apologies to Burma-Shave.

Tom T.

August 20, 2008 12:14 PM


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