Bob Brinker would show integrity if he made it clear to Moneytalk listeners that he re-evaluated and changed his stock market timing advice in January and February, 2008. Unfortunately, he didn't make that fact clear last weekend during his stock market commentary.
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Stevied commented: "Honey, you keep using goalposts that Bob never does."
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Honeybee says: Here are two examples (of many I could quote) of Brinker moving the goalpost:
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- First he said: October 3, 2007 Marketimer (S&P @ 1526.75), ".......we see the potential for the S&P 500 Index to rise at least into the mid-1600's range next year."
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Then he said: January 4, 2008 Marketimer (S&P@ 1468.36) Bob Brinker said: “…..conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008. We expect the S&P 500 Index to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600’s range in the process.” - .
First he said: August, 2007 – January 4, 2008 gift-horse buying opportunity: “mid-1400’s” - .
Then he said: February 10, 2008 gift-horse buying opportunity: “low-1300’s”
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Stevied continued: “He works on closing day S&P 500, you quoted intraday. This kind of "noise" is something Bob does not predict.”
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Honeybee says: To paraphrase what Larry Swedroe said, that kind of hair-splitting is ridiculous. Most people find a 19.5% decline in their stock holdings just as painful as 20% decline. The S&P closed on March 18th at 1276.60. The intraday low was 1256.98.
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Here's a dose of reality: For months, Brinker has been saying that there was no 20% bear market decline “on the radar.” He admitted that the current “correction” is more than he expected. And don’t forget that the Nasdaq has corrected 25%+, while a couple of Brinker’s portfolios are holding a mutual fund proxy for QQQQ.
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Steved Cont: “Be honest and tell your "fans" that Bob has said in the past there might be a correction on the way to new highs.”
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Honeybee says: Bob Brinker has always maintained that a 5-10% correction is “health-restoring." At no time this past year did he predict, OR EXPECT, a 20% decline. Just the opposite, he has maintained his gift horse buy level at mid-1400’s since last August.
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Honeybee says: So you want to set the goal-post only back to MID-January (after the correction hit), when he moved it and started over with a new bottom and a lower gift-horse buying opportunity. Did you forget that he was advising dollar-cost-averaging back in October when the S&P hit its all-time-record-high? Dollar-cost averaging is nothing new. The only thing that is new is that his mid-1400’s gift-horse looked ridiculous with the S&P down at 1300 and below.
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Stevied Cont: “Adding to positions at the bottom was the right thing to do. And the Bob NEVER said there would not be corrections along the way. This one was pretty short lived as things go.”
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I think many might argue with your statement that this has been a "short-lived" correction, but let me know if you ever hear Brinker say that. However, adding to positions at the bottom is always the right thing to do, but you seem not to know that Brinker has been bragging about “adding to positions” in the mid-1400s for several months now. Here is what he said just 3 months before he was blind-sided with this almost-20% correction:
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October 3, 2007 (S&P@ 1526.75) Marketimer, Page Bob Brinker said: “In August and September editions of Marketimer, we rated the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness in the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range. During August and September there were 18 buying opportunities, consisting of 15 market days on which the S&P 500 Index closed within the 1430 to 1470 range, and three market days on which the index closed slightly below that range. Although we do not believe further weakness into the mid-1400’s range must occur, we remain comfortable with rating the market attractive for purchase should any such additional weakness occur……….”
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Moving goal-posts, disappearing trades, and do-overs -- that's what it's all about...
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