Bob Brinker didn't see it coming, so he lowered the goal post and continued the game, just like he did with QQQ in March 2003:
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Bob Brinker did not see this intraday 20% S&P correction (25% Nasdaq bear correction) coming. Admirably, he has admitted that fact on Moneytalk.
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Up until the day the market-drop started, he had been predicting new highs and advising a dollar-cost-average approach for many months. Until the middle of January, when he did away with the call, he had been recommending MID-1400's as a gift-horse buying opportunity.
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When the S&P was topping out in October at 1576+, Brinker was predicting the S&P would reach into the MID-1600's. He has been recommending 100% all-in for stock market allocations since March 2003 and has ridden this correction down with Model Portfolios fully invested.
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He never at any time (since 2003) has recommended raising any cash reserves. IOW, his advice to listeners and subscribers: Hold ZERO cash reserves in your equity allocations...
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On Moneytalk this Saturday, Brinker said this: "...........if you are looking for the market into 2009, then obviously, you should be feeling pretty good about your stock market portfolio. Because not only has it shown a very nice advance since the correction lows in March."
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Now why would anyone who had been following Brinker's advice (even since January 4, 2008) feel "pretty good" about their stock market porfolios right now? That makes NO sense whatsoever! His followers are still down 10+, after riding it down 20% from the high. I'd like to ask Mr. Brinker why he thinks it would feel good to regain a portion of such a big loss?
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Saturday, Brinker continued: "......but in addition to that, I think it has a lot further to go. And I continue to expect, as I have said, that we will see new all-time-historic-record highs in the S&P 500 Index."
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Yes, Brinker did say he expected all-time-historic record highs in the S&P 500 Index, but it isn't NEW by a long shot. He was "expecting" new highs last October, November, December and when he published the January issue of Marketimer.
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What he wasn't "expecting," by his own admission, was an intermediate-term correction. So far, he has managed to miss the 20% decline on a closing-basis definition of a bear in the S&P -- but only by a bear's-hair.
I agree with Larry Swedroe, that kind of splitting-hairs is downright silly.
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Here are some comments from Kirk's Facebook Bob Brinker Discussion Forum:
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Steve T., who has extensive background knowledge of Brinker wrote:
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"Thanks Honey Oakes, I must say I believe your comments were quite generous. I think you are way to easy on bob and his numerous character flaws. What I have never been able to decipher is bob aware how dishonest he is and it doesn’t bother him or disrupt his sleep? Maybe he justifies his actions as long the money keeps rolling in? Or has he been so far out of the ethics mainstream for so long he doesn’t even realize what he is doing? Apparently lying has become a habit. Does he do it while being totally unaware he is doing it. I’ve seen this behavior in others but it is most often associated with profane language. Either way I sure would NOT want to be in his shoes when he meets his maker. "
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Jim Firestone wrote:
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" Very good summary Honey. Brinker finally discussed the market on the radio. I guess he felt it would be a good opportunity to attract new subscribers by bragging about his "low 1300's" buy call. Had the market gone down, he would not have even mentioned the market. He wants the uninformed to think "wow, this guy is really in touch with the market! I'd better subscribe". Of course his current subscribers and readers of this forum and your site know the real story. If the market gets back to S&P 1565, Brinker will brag about all the money made since his low 1300's buy call, but in reality fully invested subscribers will simply have gotten back to even at that point."
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