What if Bob Brinker Threw a Stock Market Party and NOONE came? 8^)
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According to CNBC, the S&P 500 Index had its worst quarter since the summer of 2002 and just ended its fifth straight month of drops.
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Let’s investigate what Brinker has been saying about the stock market over the past 8 months -- five months, plus the three months prior:
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August 3, 2007 (S&P 1455.27) Bob Brinker said: “We rate the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s."
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September 6, 2007 (S&P 1473.99) Bob Brinker said: “The Marketimer stock market timing model is currently in highly favorable territory as the health restoring summer correction has significantly enhanced our market outlook into 2008.”
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October 3, 2007 (S&P 1526.75) Bob Brinker said: “….we see the potential for the S&P 500 Index to rise at least into the mid-1600’s range next year.”
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November 5, 2007 (S&P 1549.38) Bob Brinker said: “The Marketimer stock market timing model remains in decidedly favorable territory as we move closer to the winter season….the S&P 500 Index should rise at least into the mid-1600’s range next year, in our view….We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year…….attractive for purchase in the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s….”
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December 5, 2007 (S&P 1481.16) Bob Brinker said: “….We expect the bull market to continue at least well into 2008, and we look for significant stock market gains, including new S&P 500 record highs……attractive for purchase….mid-1400’s range…….any additional weakness below this range is regarded as a gift horse buying opportunity.”
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January 4, 2008 (S&P 1468.36) Bob Brinker said: “We expect the S&P 500 Index to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600’s range…….attractive for purchase on any weakness in the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range.”
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February 4, 2008 (S&P 1378.55): Brinker did away with the mid-1400’s "gift-horse buying opportunity" (as of January 20, 2008), and he changed the time-frame on his long-time prediction of new S&P highs and the 1600’s (lowered from mid-1600's) S&P target. Brinker said: “As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S&P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009…….potential to carry the index into the 1600’s by late this year or in 2009.....we recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing at this time.”
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February 10, 2008, Brinker issued a special bulletin saying that he believed the market was bottoming and he issued a new attractive for purchase gift-horse buy-level of “low 1300’s.”
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“All of them (“Bold Bulls”) seem shaken by the economy's deterioration, but still positive long-term. Brinker said recently: "Marketimer views the establishment of a correction bottom as a process which unfolds over a given period of time. This process involves the initial establishment of a closing S&P 500 Index low, followed by a short rally, followed by a test of the area of the previously established low on reduced trading volume. The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on Jan. 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the Jan. 22 closing low."
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"In our view, the correction bottoming process has proceeded with a high degree of historical consistency to date. We have witnessed a decided reduction in selling pressure during the testing process, which is essential to a successful outcome. We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
March 4, 2008 (S&P 1330.63) Brinker reiterated what he had said in the February 10, 2008 special bulletin and said that the market was establishing a bottom in “textbook fashion over the past two months.”
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RECAP:
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Bob Brinker is 100% bullish, 100% invested, and has stated on Moneytalk, that we are not in a bear market.
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June, 2007, Brinker said that the "secular bear megatrend" (which he claimed was running concurrently with a "cyclical bull" market), had ended the prior year (as of June, 2006).
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Brinker originally said this current cyclical bull market would last 1-2 years -- that was back in March, 2003.
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So if he truly believes in "secular trends," as logic would dictate (because how can he claim something ended unless he believed it had started), then the only conclusion one can make is that he now believes we are in a "secular BULL megatrend."
