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Bob Brinker did not expect this correction -- as he clearly stated on Moneytalk. It took him totally by surprise. In the January 4, 2008 Marketimer, he was still recommending mid-1400's as "attractive for purchase" for new money. After the correction took the market down well below 1400, Brinker removed it on January 20th.
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Bob Brinker's latest stock market views:
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February 4, 2008 Marketimer. Bob Brinker said: "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S$P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009."
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February 10, 2008 special bulletin. Bob Brinker said: "We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
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March 4, 2008 Marketimer, Brinker said: "The process of establishing a stock market correction bottom has unfolded in text-book fashion over the past two months. This process involves the establishment of an initial closing low, followed by a short-term rally, followed by testing of the area of the prior established closing low on reduced trading volume ... The correction bottoming process (over the past few weeks) has seen a significant reduction in selling pressure in the vicinity of the Jan. 22 closing low. This is a very important aspect of any successful test."
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1) Brinker's portfolios are 100% invested.
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2) Brinker is not bearish and does not expect a bear market.
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3) Brinker recommends "low 1300s, or any minor weakness" as "attractive for purchase." (This recommendation would apply to new money only for those who follow his advice and are fully invested.)
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RECESSION PREDICTIONS
.March 6, 2008, Moneytalk, Bob Brinker said:
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Now as I have said, there is an even-steven chance that the first 6 months of 2008 will see negative GDP growth in real terms. If that were to happen, and I’m only putting the odds of that at 50-50, but if that were to happen, that would mean we would get a first quarter negative GDP report which does look likely, right now. And then in the second quarter of the year, that remains to be seen because that is when that rebate check, stimulus package kicks in with the checks arriving for the most part in May. A lot of that will be spent in May and June, and some of it could be spent in anticipation in April. So the second quarter get some sort of a lift out of the stimulus package and so we don’t know yet. And if it does not, those who are guaranteeing a recession won’t have their recession because the traditional and historic definition of a recession is two straight quarters of negative real Gross Domestic Product. Right now we think there’s a pretty good chance we will get a negative first quarter, but the second quarter is very hard to call and that’s why I’m leaving the odds of a recession……at 50-50…………..”
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March 4, 2008 Marketimer, Brinker said: "We continue to believe that the door is open to the possibility of a brief and mild recession during the first two quarters of 2008."
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