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Friday, January 2, 2009

Jeffchristie: Bob Brinker 2008 in Review

Long-time Bob Brinker analyst, "jeffchristie," compiled the following review, and included quotes from this blog Moneytalk Summaries over the past year. All 2008 Summaries are archived here except January 2008. Please look to the right column and you will see the link for year-2008 posts and comments. Click here for archived January 2008.



January 6th 2008, Brinker said the stock market conditions were "favorable as we enter 2008” and he took a whack at the “bad news bears.” He repeated his prediction of new highs reaching into the “1600’s range.”

Then the market began its fall! Brinker was absent from Moneytalk on January 12-13, 2008.

January 19-20th, when Brinker returned to Moneytalk, he said that the correction was more than he "expected."

January 20, 2008, Brinker issued a special bulletin retracting his “mid-1400’s” buy-in level and replacing it with dollar-cost-average ONLY.

February 4, 2008 Marketimer. Bob Brinker said: "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S$P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009."
February 10, 2008 special bulletin. Bob Brinker said: "We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."

March 4, 2008 Marketimer, Brinker said: "The process of establishing a stock market correction bottom has unfolded in text-book fashion over the past two months. This process involves the establishment of an initial closing low, followed by a short-term rally, followed by testing of the area of the prior established closing low on reduced trading volume ... The correction bottoming process (over the past few weeks) has seen a significant reduction in selling pressure in the vicinity of the Jan. 22 closing low. This is a very important aspect of any successful test."

Moneytalk Excerpt, April 19, 2008

BEAR MARKET…..Brinker said: “Those who are out there with the bear stories now are making fools of themselves because it just doesn’t compute does it? When you have a market that’s seen this kind of buying it just doesn’t compute……. that America is spiraling downward – doesn’t make any sense.”

31 May 2008

RECESSION CASSANDRAS.... Brinker said: “What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now. Because all that they’ve accomplished with their talk about recession…………all that they have to show for their efforts is that they scared the people who listened to them out of the stock market this past winter……….”

CORRECTION LOW AND TESTS.... Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows..... The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."

LOST JOBS.... Brinker said: “And your questions to the Cassandras should be where are the millions of lost jobs that we would expect to see in a recession? In fact, in this economic slowdown, so far, we’ve only lost a few hundred thousand jobs total – dating back to the beginning of this year…………”

STOCK MARKET BEARS.... Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.

We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.........................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards.. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”__Bob Brinker

Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch June 2 2008

Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested.



on Markets


• Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early July, Editor Bob Brinker reported that his stock-market timing model remains in favorable territory. However, he cautioned that oil's price constitutes a "wild card." "In the event oil prices continue to rise, consumers and the stock market will be held hostage to the cost of energy. This would provide a strong headwind against the economic recovery process. If oil prices stabilize or decline from current levels, we believe stock prices can make progress into 2009.." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested.

August 5, 2008:
If you have any new money, inheritance, retirement, lotto winnings or house-sale proceeds that you want to invest in equities, any weakness below the S&P 500 Index 1240 is an attractive for purchase level.

Moneytalk September 27, 2008, Bob Brinker's stock market-timing advice:

Caller Ken from Times River, New Jersey said: "Hi Bob, it's certainly a pleasure speaking with you. I've been a subscriber and a faithful listener for at least 20 years, and I have only the utmost regard for your market timing philosophy, and I think you did a beautiful, beautiful job when the stock market collapsed when the dot-com bubble bursted in the early 2000, but I've seen some precipitous declines in the market since that time -- stocks going down 20-25%, and at no time have I heard you say anything other than become fully invested, and I wonder, did you miss the boat or am I mistaken?"

Bob Brinker
said: "Mistaken about what, Ken?"

Ken replied: "About the fact that you still have everybody fully invested in the market after it has taken such precipitous losses. Do you think, is this still is the time to be invested? Is it the time to sell and get out of the market?"

Brinker said: "Actually Ken, it's not my opinion that you should be selling stocks right now. I don't have a recommendation to sell stock right now. And if I did have a recommendation to sell stock right now, you would know about it. No, I do not have that recommendation. And really, that's all I can say. We have not, we have not issued a sell signal on this market. And in fact, as things stand right now, I think that we are in a scenario right now -- this is just my opinion -- I think selling stocks here is a mistake. 1-800-xxx-xxxx. Linda in Thousand Oaks, you're on Moneytalk.....

October 12th

Bob Brinker said: “I want to make a comment about what we have seen recently which is unprecedented. Without question, this is the most difficult market environment I’ve seen, and my work did not forecast this bear market decline. I had no way of forecasting a global banking crisis. If I had, that would have been a huge forecast to make. And yes, it would have caused a lot of disbelief but I would have made that forecast if I had been convinced it was going to happen.

I’m not a person that believes in selling into a panic atmosphere and much prefer not to do so. My personal opinion is, it’s not the right thing to do. So recognizing that this is a situation that is going to require patience and time to resolve, that’s the way I feel about it. Obviously, we are seeing the reason that we always talk about a conservative balanced portfolio approach for those who are approaching or in retirement……..Now I believe that certainly we will come out of this over time, but there’s no question about it, it’s unprecedented.”

November 8th:

".......But I have not yet reached a point right now where I have been willing to upgrade the recommendation on the stock market right now from dollar-cost-average to buy. I do anticipate as we move forward that there will be an opportunity to upgrade the stock market recommendation, which is currently for new money -- we are talking new money -- as you have, which is currently dollar-cost-average, I do expect there's going to be an opportunity to upgrade that to buy a recommendation. But until those conditions fall into place, I would remain on a dollar-cost-average approach.........."

20 December 2008

Caller Pamela asked about California State Muni Bonds (General Obligations):

Bob Brinker said: "Well, I think the State of California is going to have to get its act together and until then, they are going to continue to do what they are doing right now, which is, they are threatening their bond holders with fiscal irresponsibility......Just look at the numbers, the State of California is facing a possible deficit in excess of $40billion in the next fiscal year.....They have to cut their spending.....dramatically."

Pamela asked: "So would you sell your bonds if you were me?"

Bob Brinker said: "That's a personal decision, Pamela. I really can't tell you what to do with your bonds. I have some California bonds, but in almost all cases my bonds might be different than your bonds and I'll tell you why. The bonds that I own have Treasuries behind them. In other words, they've been pre-refunded by earlier transactions by the state and backed by Treasuries. So in almost all cases, the California bonds that I own are actually backed by Treasuries and are not backed by the State of California....." [Honeybee EC: As this October 4th Summary quote clearly indicates, Brinker said he owned California bonds, but said NOTHING about them being backed by the Federal Treasury. I wrote: Brinker is adamant that California General Obligation Bonds are safe. He said he owns some of them."]

Brinker continued: "......If you own bonds that are backed by the State of California, then you need to make a decision on whether you're comfortable with the fiscal situation in California. I would not argue with anybody in here that would say that we have seen gross fiscal irresponsibility in the State of California. Their refusal to slash spending in California is part of the reason that they are in the pickle that they are in."

[Honeybee EC: This is a new and complete flip-flop for Bob Brinker. Never before, has he told a caller that selling California Bonds was their own decision and that he couldn't tell them what to do. He has never recommended selling them. The only cautionary word he has ever given was paraphrased in my October 18, 2008 Summary: Brinker recommended that investors keep those holdings small enough that it would not be a “life-altering event" in case something goes wrong with them. Brinker has always said that "Arnie" was "good for California" -- even saying that he got "ill" when he heard people bashing "Arnie." ]

Honeybee sez: Thank you very much, Jeffchristie. Click here to see a picture of Jeff's gorgeous car.
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