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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Bob Brinker Has Had No Sell Signal Since 2000

Moneytalk September 27, 2008, Bob Brinker's stock market-timing advice:

Caller Ken from Times River, New Jersey said: "Hi Bob, it's certainly a pleasure speaking with you. I've been a subscriber and a faithful listener for at least 20 years, and I have only the utmost regard for your market timing philosophy, and I think you did a beautiful, beautiful job when the stock market collapsed when the dot-com bubble bursted in the early 2000, but I've seen some precipitous declines in the market since that time -- stocks going down 20-25%, and at no time have I heard you say anything other than become fully invested, and I wonder, did you miss the boat or am I mistaken?"

Bob Brinker said: "Mistaken about what, Ken?"

Ken replied: "About the fact that you still have everybody fully invested in the market after it has taken such precipitous losses. Do you think, is this still is the time to be invested? Is it the time to sell and get out of the market?"

Brinker said: "Actually Ken, it's not my opinion that you should be selling stocks right now. I don't have a recommendation to sell stock right now. And if I did have a recommendation to sell stock right now, you would know about it. No, I do not have that recommendation. And really, that's all I can say. We have not, we have not issued a sell signal on this market. And in fact, as things stand right now, I think that we are in a scenario right now -- this is just my opinion -- I think selling stocks here is a mistake. 1-800-xxx-xxxx. Linda in Thousand Oaks, you're on Moneytalk.

Kirk Lindstrom astutely pointed out:

"Read his answer very carefully. I think both you and David let Brinker slip one by...

He NEITHER confirmed or denied to the caller that he rode the bear down 30% while fully invested like he did in 1987.

He makes it sound like he is denying what Ken said with his answer "Brinker said: "Actually Ken, it's not my opinion that you should be selling stocks right now."

He left the door open that he could have had different advice when the market was at a top and that Ken has his facts confused.

An HONEST ANSWER would have been "Yes Ken, you are correct. You have not missed anything. We do not advise selling into weakness and our Marketimer Stock Market Timing Model remains bullish as it has been since March of 2003."

This is the same sort of nonsense non-answer to a DIFFERENT QUESTION that he used in the 1990s to make me think he called the 1987 bear market or at least stayed fully invested rather than going to cash in 1988 AFTER the market fell 30% in 1987 while he was fully invested.

He is a MASTER at wiggling out of a direct answer to a direct question that make him look anything less than perfect. He is even better at giving an answer that makes him look better than his actual advice, especially for new listeners.

September 30, 2008 10:06 AM

Hollyhock growing in my brother's garden in Idaho:

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