Back in June when the S&P was at 1400.38 and Oil was about $125 per barrel, Bob Brinker said that the price of Oil was the "wildcard" in his "stock market forecasts." Brinker talked about this on Moneytalk and repeated it in his newsletter in July, August and September.
September Marketimer, Bob Brinker said that the July 15 closing low of 1214.91 might be tested, but that low-to-mid 1200's was an "attractive for purchase" level. (He has since dropped that advice and gone back to DCA only.)
Unfortunately, not even his "wildcard" and "inverse correlation" has worked out for him as an excuse. In September, the S&P 500 Index dropped as low as 1106, and the price of oil dropped as low as $93.24
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Kirk said...I will update these tomorrow at the Bob Brinker Fan Club Blog
but it is worth pointing out Brinker has now missed a 2nd 30% (29.8% is 30% in my book) bear market while fully invested and if you count two bear markets of short duration that were just over 20%, he missed four of the five bear markets that have occurred since he's been on the radio.
(Gulf war and 1998 bears where short but just over 20%)
2007-2008 Bear Market Statistics 09/30/08
S&P500 Chart
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 09/29/08 at 1,106.39
Current S&P500 Price 1,159.13
Decline in Points = 416.96
Decline in percent = 26.5%
Max Decline = 29.8%
=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 29.8% and we are currently 26.5% off the peak.
=>The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low was 29.3%
DJIA Charts
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 09/29/08 at 10,266.76
Current DJIA Price 10,767.91
Decline in Points = 3,512.05
Decline in percent = 24.6%
Max Decline = 28.1%
=>This means the decline from high to low has been 28.1% and we are currently 24.6% off the peak.
=>The decline in the DOW off the closing high to the closing low was 26.8%
NASDAQ Charts
Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 09/29/08 at 1,983.73
Current NASDAQ Price 2,078.58
Decline in Points = 782.93
Decline in percent = 27.4%
Max Decline = 30.7%
=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 30.7% and we are currently 0.273607291 27.4% off the peak.
=>The decline in the NASDAQ off the closing high to the closing low was 30.6%
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