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Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Bob Brinker Beehive Market Update - April 9, 2008

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Market Statistics

All the major markets remain down double digits off their recent highs made in 2007. The NASDAQ and S&P500 were down over 20% on an intaday basis at their worst while the DOW managed to "only" fall 19.4%.

S&P 500 Chart
(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 03/17/08 at 1,256.98
Current S&P500 Price 1,358.39
Decline in Pts 217.70
Decline in % 13.8%
Max Decline 20.2%

This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 20.2% and we are currently 13.8% off the peak.

The decline from the high to the low on a closing basis is 18.6%
DJIA Chart
(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 01/22/08 at 11,508.74
Current DJIA Price 12,528.00
Decline in Pts 1751.96
Decline in % 12.3%
Max Decline 19.4%

This means the correction from high to low has been 19.4% and we are currently 12.3% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 17.1%

(Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 03/17/08 at 2,155.42
Current NASDAQ Price 2,330.77
Decline in Pts 530.74
Decline in % 18.5%
Max Decline 24.7%

This means the correction from high to low has been 24.7% and we are currently 18.5% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 24.1%

Bob Brinker:

On January 04, with the 60-DMA of the put/call ratio at a then record of 1.00 and the S&P500 closing the day before at 1,447.16 , we reported here that Bob Brinker said this was bullish.

In his January Marketimer, Bob Brinker reported:
    "The 60-day put/call ratio remains in bullish territory as the new year begins."

Brinker remains bullish, does not expect a bear market (as defined as a 20% or more decline in the S&P500) and he looks for new highs to be made in the year ahead.

Click charts courtesy of to view full sized images

Brinker was so bullish then that he had a Lump Sum Buy for the market in the mid 1400s.

Today the 60 day moving average of the put/call ratio is 10% higher at a new record of 1.10! (See Put Call Ratio 60 Day Moving Average Record High )

On an intraday basis, the S&P500 declined 20.2% and has recovered to be "only" down 13.8% from its peak level as of today.

For more information, see Technical Analysis: Sentiment Indicators

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Click to view the attached (but slow to load) PDF file: Take Profits & Sell Sentiment Indictors from The Market Top.

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