About 45 minutes into the second hour, a caller asked Bob Brinker an important question about his market-timing history during the 2008-2009 Megabear.
In particular, the caller pointed out that right at the beginning of the bear, Brinker had issued an all-in buy-signal at S&P mid-1400's. Evidently, Brinker did not want to admit that he had done that because he spun a very duplicitous tale and hearkened back to the year-2000 and an entirely different bear market!
However, the truth is, Bob Brinker did issue that mid-1400s buy-signal in September, October, November and December of 2007. He even bragged that there had been "18 opportunities" to buy at the mid-1400s "weakness." He also issued it again in January 2008 (then rescinded it on January 20th), the month the Megabear got seriously underway and didn't bottom until March, 2009 at S&P 677.
Caller Frank was VERY CLEAR about what he is asking, but Brinker's shtick is one of confusion and deception to listeners. And rudeness and arrogance toward anyone who simply asks for a little honest transparency.
Caller Frank from San Mateo asked: "As a market-timer, how successful were you in avoiding the horrific bear market of '08 - '09?"
Bob Brinker: "I did not avoid it."
Frank: "Okay, so you sold out before S&P 1400?"
Brinker: "I did not avoid it. You having difficulty hearing me, Frank?
Frank: "No, I heard you in September of '07 recommending lump summing into the market at S&P 1400..... (Brinker interrupts and talks over Frank here)
Brinker: "Frank, let me repeat myself. I did not, I did not, N-O-T avoid it. Is there any part of that you don't understand?"
Frank: "Okay, so you're recommending buying lump-sum at S&P 1400 is incorrect?"
Brinker: "No, my lump-sum recommendation was made in March 11, 2003 [Honey: Frank clearly said "08-09"] when our model portfolios were mostly in cash. [Honey: So "all-in" and "lump-sum" are not the same thing?] We had most of the model portfolio money in cash as a result of a sell signal that was issued in January of year 2000. And that sell signal was issued with the S&P 500 trading in the 1400s. We put most of the model portfolio money [Honey: Brinker raised 60% cash in January 2000] into cash at that time and held it in cash until March 11, 2003. And on that day, the S&P 500 was around 800. And on that day, we recommended taking all of the available cash which was most of the model portfolio money that had been out of the market from the drop from the 1400s in the first quarter of year 2000, it was held in cash, it was placed back in the market March 11, 2003...... That was a lump-sum recommendation derived from cash reserve holdings.....
.....Now there have been various levels along the way since that time where we have made lump sum recommendations [Honey: Oh, I see that "lump-sum" does mean a "buy recommendation" after all . Were you lying about that or confused, Bob?], or in other words recommended the market attractive for purchase. We've done this at various level, but you have to understand, each time we did that, we were fully invested. Every single time we made a lump-sum recommendation since March 11, 2003 to the present, every time, we were already fully invested when we made the recommendation so it would only have applied to money that would have come in the interim. And so that was the recommendation that we made. We made it at several different levels following March 11, 2003, but our model portfolios could not do anything with those recommendations because they were fully invested. ...... [Honey: So what was it that drove Brinker to repeatedly admit that all of his "lump-sum" recommendations are worthless?]
.......And the most recent attractive for purchase recommendation that we made was July 1st of this year, a month ago, when the S&P 500 was at the 1030 level. When the S&P 500 got to the 1030 level, actually on July 1st, a month ago, we recommended that investment letter subscribers who were looking for a buying opportunity, take advantage of that level......And we had a few days there at the beginning of July, stretching out to the 6th of July, where the market remained at that level before moving higher. .....[Honey: Beware of Brinker's "off-the-books" and "off-the-record" and worthless buy-signals. They can be DANGEROUS to your financial health. See the chart below."
......Prior to the July 1st, 2010 recommendation, the last time we made an all-in recommendation was in February of 2009. But remember, we were already fully invested at that time, so it didn't affect the model portfolios in any way. But at that time, with the S&P trading in the low-to-mid 800s, we made an all-in recommendation at that time. [Honey: What Brinker forgot to say is that in March, 2009, it bottomed 150 points below the February buy-signal.] Again, the model portfolios went fully invested around the S&P 500 800 level on March 11, 2003 and they have remained fully invested. This is America's money program. I'm Bob Brinker."
Bob Brinker's marketing-plan is brilliant, but deceptive and costly to both subscribers and listeners who have gotten suckered by the recommendation-blunders that he has never taken responsibility for -- such as the QQQ-trade that certainly DID use model portfolio cash, but he "decided" not to include in the record.
Bob Brinker said that he has been - in essence - a buy-and-holder since March, 2003, while at the same time, he sells himself as a market-timer. He explained that all those lump-sum buys were meaningless because his model portfolios were fully invested all along.
Bob Brinker said it best when he was introducing the program today. He said: "It's all about the money." [$185 times 8 years of buy and hold = $1480]
Caller Frank sent these comments to us:
-
birdbrain said... For the record, I was Frank from
San Mateo at 2:40 PST
As you heard, Mr B will not admit his buy recommendations from the radio, only from the newsletter
His attempt at insults "what don't you understand" confirms the arrogance of the host and his disregard of those listeners who may have followed his ruinous advice of a S&P 1400 investment
three years ago
Chart courtesy of Kirk Lindstrom, click to enlarge:
Brinker's guest-speaker was Barry Ritholz:
Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. Moneytalk has been canceled on all Saturdays. The Sunday program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots. To download and listen later, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window: kgofeedback@yahoo.com
