August 29, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Commentary and Excerpts

Bob Brinker's best quote of the day: Moneytalk, Bob Brinker's Land of Critical Mass, "It's America's money show, where it's all about the money."

STOCK MARKET: Bob Brinker said: "I think you saw capitulation early in 2009 when people became convinced that the banks were going down. That's what gave you the S&P 500 low in March of 2009 at 676.....No, I don't think this is capitulation. I think we are having a mid-term election year correction as I have described in great detail on an ongoing basis in my investment letter."

Honey EC: Brinker has indeed been saying in both Marketimer and on Moneytalk that the stock market began a correction on April 23, 2010, when the S&P 500 Index was at 1217.28. In the June issue of Marketimer, Brinker recommended "dollar-cost-average on weakness," and projected a target range of 1275 to 1325 "by next winter."

In July after the market had corrected a full 16% (just 4% shy of his definition of a bear market), Brinker stated on Moneytalk that he had issued a new "attractive for purchase" outright-buy level on July 1st when he published the July issue of Marketimer. The S&P was at 1030.

In the August issue of Marketimer, Brinker fine-tuned that buy level to a more general "low-1000's" and wrote that he expected the "cyclical bull market trend that began during the spring of season of 2009 to resume during the second-half of this year."

HIGH YIELD BOND FUND (VWEHX): Brinker said: "High yield bonds have been doing very well. We've included those in our Fixed Income only portfolio on Page 7 of the investment letter each month. We've included for some time a high yield bond fund in there. And I'll tell you what, even today, the yield on that fund is about 7% taxable.....But we have taken a conservative position where we use that for fixed income only investors. We have not included a high yield fund in the balanced portfolio, and the reason is the balanced portfolio is about half in the stock market, we're taking plenty of risk there, so on the fixed income side, we've gone with very high quality. And that certainly has paid off because as you know the Ginnie Maes (VFIIX), which are part of that, have been a home-run with the bases loaded. A grand salami."

Honey EC: Just listening to Brinker's words, I believe that there are a few ways that listeners might have been mislead by what Brinker said about his portfolios. For starters, It was back in April 2003 when he SOLD Ginnie Maes in his fixed income portfolio in order to raise the cash to buy the Vanguard High-yield Fund:

April, 2003 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "Effective at the close on April 11, we are reducing our page seven all fixed-income portfolio weighting in Vanguard Ginnie Mae Fund from 50% to 35%, and we are introducing a 15% weighting in the Vanguard High Yield Corporate Fund."

Now one could argue whether or not that was a good decision, but for some who owned the high-yield fund during the 2008-2009 drop, it was very scary for them. I got letters from people asking for advice about selling out -- even at the bottom. But on Moneytalk, Brinker did not mention owning the fund during that time -- NOT ONCE!

(Incidentally, I'm no financial advisor and I don't even play one, but my advice to those who wrote to me was always, don't sell unless you have to, which paid off because the fund regained most of what it lost. Personally, I began buying the fund shortly after it bottomed and made good money in addition to the dividends.)

Brinker's comments summarized:

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT....Revised from 2.4 to 1.6 annual - distorted and controversial revision.

NEW JOBS GROWTH.... Unemployment is high, and new job growth is "insufficient."

HOUSING SECTOR.....It remains in the "doldrums." It's a tough time to be a new home builder.

ECONOMIC GROWTH...."We are in a slow growth economy, and will remain in a slow-growth economy this year."

INTEREST RATES/FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING: Brinker said: "With the Federal Funds rate sitting between zero and .25%......... That means that really the Federal Reserve has let the horses out of the barn - all of them on interest rates. There's not a heck of a lot they can do directly since interest rates are already in the short sector down near zero. What they can do of course, is what they've already done - quantitative easing, where they are out there buying Treasuries, buy mortgage securities. And what that does, that demand holds down the rates.

Caller Dean in Tinley Park, Illinois said that he had retired in December, 2007 and turned an annuity over to "a company" to manage for him. He said since that time, he had lost 13% of his value. Dean said he'd like to begin using Vanguard to establish one of Brinker's model portfolios.

Brinker answered: "We have a balanced portfolio in my investment letter and of course my investment letter for September will be coming out in a few days. And yes, in that portfolio, we do have a number of Vanguard Funds. All of our fixed income funds are Vanguard Funds at this time. And we also have other Vanguard Funds in that portfolio. And you should be able to talk to them about the possibility of setting up a self-directed IRA rollover account. And if you do that, you should be in a position to manage it yourself."

Caller Dean continued: "The only reason that I've been hesitant about it is because I'm not real savvy about what to pick and how to go about it. That's why I wanted to use your model portfolios."

Brinker replied: "Well you know, it's been a challenging year, it's not been a big deal one way or the other because the changes are small, but it's been a challenging year here in 2010. I was just looking at the performance of the balanced model portfolio III year-to-date, and believe it or not, we're showing a slightly positive total return, by a small percentage......Which is remarkable when you consider the kind of environment we are living in. But I do feel comfortable using a balanced portfolio out of the investment letter for the type of an objective that you have Dean. Not only do I think it is doable, but I think a lot of people are doing it right now."

Honey EC: I'm sure that Brinker is right. A lot of people are doing it right now. How difficult is it to put half your money in Vanguard Bond Funds and the other half in Vanguard stock market index funds if you want a no-brainer balanced portfolio?

Regarding Brinker's "investment letter" balanced portfolio that he talked about three times today: In the December 2007 issue of Marketimer (when Dean said he gave his money over to be managed and it lost 13%), Brinker's model portfolio III showed a balance of $214,141. At the low of the 2008-2009 Megabear, that 50% bond portfolio lost 23.9% -- this was during years that bonds did well. As of July 31, 2010, the portfolio was valued at $204,320.

In my opinion, Dean would do well to go to Vanguard Fund Group, but he may want to be a bit careful about investing 50% of his money in the bond funds that Brinker has in model portfolio III right now. One of the reasons the portfolio is up a small amount this year is because it holds 20% Ginnie Mae Fund and a couple other Vanguard bond funds. Who knows what will happen to them if interest rates go up?

As for the stock portion of that portfolio, most of it is in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund and the remaining funds hold such small amounts (a couple as small as 02.5%) that it would hardly be worth the trouble to mess with them if your account is with Vanguard.

(By the way, why does Brinker so carefully avoid using the name of his "investment letter" on the air? Anybody know the answer? TFB?)

BOB BRINKER ON POLITICS.... Several times today, Brinker talked about the "red herring" talk about the proposed Mosque-building at Ground Zero. He seemed to pooh-pooh it as simply a way for politicians to avoid facing the reality of the national debt.

Brinker said: "I've never seen a time when it was more important for a new administration to come indoor and focus like a laser beam on the economy. And I think if they had done that, I think that the economy would probably be doing better than it is right now. Yes, there's a recovery and we've had four consecutive quarters of rising real Gross Domestic Product and we certainly cannot blame this administration for the state of the housing sector.....But certainly you can hold the administration's feet to the fire in terms of the economy since that time and the steps that were taken to help the economy since that time. And there really was no focus on the economy. Yeah, there were things that were done. A very arguable stimulus package that contained way too much government spending and not enough tax incentive......They didn't focus like a laser beam. Instead, they took the laser beam over to other areas, health-care and other areas as well.......

.....The surveys show that the people do not believe that the president and members of Congress are working hard 24/7 on this economy. And I think the people are right in their analysis. It's in the polls. Less than 45% now trust Congress to do a good job on the economy. And only 41% approve of the president's performance with reference to the economy.....And right now, what are they doing? They're on a six-week summer vacation....When is the last time you had a six-week summer vacation (unless you are a teacher)?.........We are only about nine weeks away from a major election. Every member of the House and about 1/3 of the Senate and I expect that you will see at least some of the incumbents joining the ranks of the unemployed. And I'm sure some people would consider that to be appropriate."

REPORTS COMING OUT NEXT WEEK....Brinker comments summarized:

* On Monday: (a) Personal income for month of July expected to show a gain of 0.3% - better than June which flat-lined at zero. (b) Personal spending data for July - expected to grow 0.3%, it too flat-lined in June.

* On Tuesday: (a) Case Schiller Monthly Index for June - expect to see a gain of 3.6%. (b) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August- expect drop to 57 from slightly over 62. (c) Consumer Confidence Index for August - expect a slight uptick to 50.9, it was 50.4 in July.

* On Wednesday: (a)Automatic Data Payroll Assessment for August - projecting 17,000 new jobs, July had 42,000 new jobs. (b) ISM Manufacturing Report - expected to down-tick 52.8 versus 55.5 - no surprise because the economy is slowing. (c) Construction spending for July expected to drop 1/2 of 1%.

* On Thursday: (a) Initial claims for unemployment insurance - expected to be around 475,000, it was 473,000 last week, which was a big drop from the 500,000 prior week. (b) Factory orders for July expected to rise 4/10 of 1%.

* On Friday: (a) Non-farm payrolls, expected decline 100,000 - declined 131,00 in July. These figures include the censor workers lost jobs. (b) Private payrolls (exclude government agencies) rose 71,000 in July and the median-estimate for August is 47,000+ (private payrolls jobs growth) - if so, that will uptick unemployment to 9.6% from 9.5%. (c) Manufacturing payrolls grew 36,000 in July, estimated to grow about 10,000 in August.

Brinker's guest-speaker was Randall lane:



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What is Bob Brinker Saying Now?

So what IS Bob Brinker saying now? Bob Brinker is saying there will be no double-dip recession, no bear market and no inflation.

Moneytalk, July 11th, Brinker said that the market had been in correction mode and as soon as the correction ended, the upward trend would resume. Brinker also said that he had issued a new "outright buy" in the July issue of Marketimer.

Excerpts from my July 11, 2010 Summary:

Brinker monologue: ......And so there was the potential, as I described on the broadcast a few weeks ago to upgrade the stock market to attractive-for-purchase. In other words, to buy. So that lump sum purchase could be made at favorable price levels -- that's the whole idea. To time a favorable level to buy into the market. That's the whole idea of that upgrade.....

......It took a lot of patience because the correction began back on April 23rd when we made the 2010 recovery high in the S&P 500 Index of 1217. Now the broad-based index, the S&P 500 was down 16% on the night of June 30th, closing at the 1030 level.....And on the next day, Thursday, July 1st, my investment letter which went online that morning, cited that that level, the close of June 30th, 1030 region, that level of prices close to that level were attractive for purchasing the market. And prices in the low-1000's -- and certainly 1030 is right there -- in that range of the S&P 500 Index is what I was talking about, and specified at that time back on Thursday, July 1st.....

..... Now subsequent to that, the S&P 500 Index closed on that day at 1027. The next day was Friday, July 2nd, and the S&P closed at 1022. The next market day was Tuesday, July 6th, following the holiday weekend and the S&P again closed in the same region -- 1028 was the close. All of these closes.....were all within less 1% of the Wednesday, June 30th close of 1030, when I upgraded the stock market to attractive-for-purchase when my letter went online on Thursday, July 1st.......

Honey EC: July 2010 Marketimer that Brinker cited, Page 3, Brinker said: "We expect the S&P 500 Index to trade into the 1275 to 1325 range by next year based on our current economic assumptions."

Brinker continued monologue.....Now if I'm correct that all we've been seeing here is a stock market correction in an ongoing cyclical bull market, we should see a lot of happy campers...... when the S&P 500 makes new recovery highs down the road. That would mean it would have to get above the April 23rd, 1217 closing level.....

In the August issue of Marketimer, Brinker raised his S&P 500 target range to 1275 - 1325, which he said would equal a 27% rally from the low of 1022.58.

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August 22, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

No vacation for Bob Brinker today. Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk...

Bob Brinker's comments summarized, paraphrased or excerpted:

STOCK MARKET....Dow at 10,213; S&P 500 Index in a 2010 trading range that could be boiled down to "2-digits".....Brinker said: "It started at a shade over 11, it got up to a shade over 12, it dropped to a shade over 10 and right now it's a shade under 11. That would give you a real quick snapshot of what the S&P has been doing in 2010. Right now at 1071.69. The total return year-to-date, including cash dividends earned is minus 2.8% and the index is about 12% below its high for the year. It's also above its low for the year which was in early July back at 1022......The Nasdaq at 2179....That index this year has a total return of minus 1.8%. So you can see that the changes in these indexes for the year-to-date, 2010 -- and we're almost 8 months in now -- have been infinitesimal."

Honey EC: On Moneytalk, Bob Brinker has repeatedly stated that NONE of his "5-root causes of a bear market" are flashing warning-signals. His portfolios are fully invested and he announced (on Moneytalk) that he had issued an outright buy-signal at S&P 1030 on July 1, 2010.

However, in Marketimer, Brinker has been forecasting sizable gains in the S&P for 2010 and the winter of 2011. Back in the March, 2010 issue, Brinker said: "Our 2010 target range for the S&P 500 Index remains in the 1200 to 1260 zone." In May, Brinker raised that to "upper-1200's to low-1300's." He nailed the numbers down a bit more in June and July, forecasting the S&P would reach "the 1275 to 1325 range by next winter." So far, those market-timing predictions have not even begun to materialize, and it's not looking too promising for them anytime soon -- certainly not in Brinker's time-frame.

INTEREST RATES/BOND.....3-month T-Bills annual return is 15 basis points; 6-month Bills @ 18 basis points; 1-year Treasuries @ 23 basis points; 2-year Treasuries @ 1/2 of 1%; 5-year Notes @ 1.45%; 10-year Notes @ 2.6%; 30-year Bonds at 3.66%.

TREASURY IMPLIED INFLATION RATE....Brinker said: "The Treasury market is saying that it believes the inflation rate for the next 3 decades, all the way out to 2040, will be 1.9% per annum."

MARGINAL TAX RATES....are low in 2010. They are as low as 10% and as high as 35%, but that will change January 1st unless Congress takes action. Brinker said: "The new brackets for next year will be 15 up to 39.6%......less than 1% taxpayers are currently paying the top bracket......and less than 4% of taxpayers are in the 33% bracket, which will go to 36%.....Most Americans are in the 15-25% marginal bracket. Many will go to the 28% bracket......Long-term capital gains are set to go from 15 to 20% on New Years Day. Qualified dividends.....will go all the way up to 39.6%....."

MARKET FLASH CRASH/UPTICK RULE....Brinker does not expect any kind of valid explanation for that 700 point stock market round-trip in May 2010. Brinker thinks the explanation that "all traders took a hike at the same time" is simply not credible. Brinker said: "I think that the deletion of the uptick rule in June, 2007, is one of the worst things that I've ever seen done on Wall Street......"

"COMRADE PETE" FROM LAS VEGAS: WEALTHY HOARDERS....Pete said: "It seems to me that there's a lot of wealthy, being 2 to 10 million dollars in wealth, that are sitting on their money. They are hoarding their money, both in this country and overseas banks and Switzerland.

They're not doing anything. They're not opening businesses. They're not growing businesses. And especially the elderly. The elderly in this country are sitting on God knows how much money and they're not doing anything with it.

In the debate over raising or lowering taxes, isn't it true that if you have a punishing tax structure, that force people to get up on their feet and do something with their money which would stimulate the economy.

Merely giving the wealthy huge tax breaks allows them to just sit on their butt and do nothing. And I'll take your answer over the air." [Honey EC: Karl Marx would be so proud! More comments here: LINK]

Brinker replied to Pete: "I think that your comments are off base and I'll tell you why. As a general rule, people who have a lot of money are very, very good at decoding tax law.....If you are a wealthy individual, you usually have Certified Public Accountants......at your beck and call......There are so many ways out there to manage your tax liabilities that there is no assurance whatsoever that you would force people to pay more taxes if you made changes in the tax code that were deleterious to high net-worth individuals. Let me be more specific. The easiest thing in the world to do is buy tax-exempt Municipal Bonds. And if you're worried about quality, one way to deal with that is to buy high-quality State General Obligations......(which) have had no failures in over a century including during the Great Depression years in the USA."

[Honey EC: Too bad that Brinker didn't ask Karl, errrr, I mean Pete, why he thought he had any right whatsoever to "force" anybody to do anything with their money -- or their "butts."]

GNMA (VFIIX) & BOND BUBBLE CONCERNS......Brinker advises using mental stops and selling if the net-asset-value drops to that price.

UNEMPLOYMENT.....Initial claims for unemployment due on Thursday.....projections have not done well lately....... Brinker said: "One thing we know for sure, when we see initial claims at this level.....we know for sure that there is no surge in new jobs imminent."

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.....For the second quarter, expect a downward revision....something in the vicinity of 1 1/2% plus or minus.

TOBACCO BONDS.....Brinker strongly recommends "staying away from them." Brinker thinks there will be defaults, especially in California, New York City, New Jersey, Ohio and Virginia.

HOUSING MARKET.....Existing home transactions report for July comes out next Tuesday and they are expected to "fall out of bed." Brinker said: "That tax credit for up to $8000, which was one of the finest stimulus ideas to ever come out of Washington because it really did help the housing market, up until spring of this year when it expired.....If the contract wasn't signed by the end of April, then that was that. So look what's happening to the housing market. It's going back to free-market forces. And free-market forces for the housing market right now have been very tough." Several times today, Brinker opined that it was really "bizarre" for those in power in Washington to have let the housing tax credit expire before the upcoming election. He thinks it should have been apparent that free-market forces would take over and not be helpful to getting re-elected.

ESTATE TAX/STEP UP PROVISION....There is no Federal estate tax in 2010. Brinker said: "The step-up provision is out the door this year".....which has resulted in a large tax increase for some people. [Honey EC: I have no idea what Brinker was referring to when he made that statement since he did not explain it. If the real estate step-up provision has been eliminated, that is truly a drastic change and a huge government rip-off. If one of our CPA/tax accountant-readers know about this, please help us out.] Jeffchristie sent the following information this morning:

jeffchristie said...

Honey

I found this posted at a Washington post Blog. I think it explains what Brinker was referring to. I am not a tax expert so I don't know for sure if this is factually correct but it is how I thought it works in 2010.

Posted by: manzoa | July 24, 2010 9:38 AM |

NO STEPPED UP BASIS: What is grossly missing from this blog and comments is that in 2010 middle class America is paying an "estate tax" that it never paid before because stepped up basis has been eliminated on inherited assets.

Explanation: Up to 2010 the cost basis for any inherited assets was moved up to current market price of the asset (using the date of death). That meant a family inheriting their parents' home bought in the 1950's and sold the house to pay for college, loans, etc paid virtually no capital gains tax. The cost basis was nearly identical to the price they sold the home at.

Not today. That same family will pay 15% taxes on the the difference between today's price of the house and what it cost their parents in the 1950s. A huge tax that up to 2010 they would have never paid.

These comments and this article talk about 'double taxation', being unfair to the super rich, etc. and NEVER mention that today middle class America is paying taxes on inherited assets they never had to pay before.

And don't think that the very wealthy are paying cap gains taxes on their assets. If a very wealthy family inherits an office building in NYC, there is no need to sell but just enjoy the income. The super wealthy do not NEED to sell as to middle class.

So in 2010 Steinbrenner's heirs pay no taxes but the middle class family that inherited their parents' home is slapped with a huge tax. Where is the outrage?

Honey here: INDEED! Where is the outrage? I think it's buried deep in the media's do not report file. This is absolute proof that Obama has not kept his promise to NOT raise taxes on the middle class!!

Bob Brinker's guest-speaker was Robert Kolb:



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This morning, Dixiegeezer sent these beautiful pictures that he took. Notice the reflections in both of them. In the bottom picture, you can see the dark bird better in its reflection:

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August 15, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

August 15, 2010, Bob Brinker is not hosting Moneytalk today...

Bob Brinker's fill-in host is Lynn Jimenez. Jimenez is the business reporter for KGO Radio.

Some are commenting about how much time Bob Brinker has been taking off since his Saturday Moneytalk program was canceled. I looked back through the actual record and it's very interesting.

Brinker's first Sunday-only weekend was on June 6, 2010. Brinker hosted that program. Since then, Brinker has had fill-in hosts every third Sunday:

* June 13th: Neale Godfrey
June 20th: Bob Brinker
June 27th: Bob Brinker
* July 4th: Lynn Jimenez
July 11th: Bob Brinker
July 18th: Bob Brinker
* July 25th: Lynn Jimenez

Is Bob Brinker retiring on the job? Is his plan to work just enough to keep his name in the public eye so that he and his son, AKA: Bob Brinker, can sell "investment letters"?

Stock market for the week:
Dow down 3.3%
S&P down 3.8%
Nasdaq down 5%

Lynn Jimenez wrote a bi-lingual book titled in Spanish. I think the title translates in English to "Do You Talk Money?".... but I'm not sure.



Dolly says don't hate me because I'm beautiful. 8)



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Mark Hulbert's "Honor Roll": What Does it Mean?

August 13, 2010.....It's been years since Bob Brinker made it into the Top-5 of Hulbert Financial Digest "Overall Performance Scoreboard" in the 25-year, 15-year and the 5-year time slots that Mark Hulbert uses in his newsletters.

However, Hulbert has created a special category based on his own private criteria. He calls this category "Honor Roll." Interestingly, Bob Brinker's Marketimer has made it on that list several times, including 2010, in spite of Marketimer under-performing other newsletters that Hulbert ranks.

So how did Hulbert create the "Honor Roll"? In the August 2010 issue of Hulbert's Financial Digest, Mark Hulbert wrote:

"How much weight should you put on all this? To help you decide, let me briefly review how I constructed this Honor Roll........I started by dividing up the last dozen years into four distinct “up” periods and four well-defined “down” periods. Focusing first on the “up” periods, I determined which investment newsletters were in the upper 50% for performance among all advisers the HFD tracks. I then did the same for the “down” periods. Only those newsletters that were in both groups made it onto the Honor Roll. This approach was not designed to identify the advisers who produced the greatest profit over the last dozen years. And, sure enough, it didn’t......

.....Instead, to use a baseball analogy, it identifies advisers with a good on-base percentage and avoids those who might have a lot of home runs but also a disturbing number of strikeouts."

Honey here: Mark Hulbert is well aware that Bob Brinker rode the 2008-2009 Megabear market all the way down fully invested and issuing buy-signals as the market continued to drop. Brinker's had at least 3 strikeouts, but Hulbert repeatedly gives Brinker market-timing mulligans.

Brinker uses Hulbert's Honor Roll to promote and advertise Marketimer on his website. How fortunate for Brinker that Hulbert created the Honor Roll since Marketimer does not make it into any of the actual performance rankings. See this page: Bob Brinker's Land of Critical Mass

As Hulbert also said in the latest Hulbert Financial digest, his "Honor Roll advisers are bullish." Hulbert cited the following quote from Bob Brinker's August, 2010 Marketimer:

•Bob Brinker’s Marketimer. In the most recent issue of this newsletter, Bob Brinker wrote: “In our view, the stock market is in the second year of a cyclical bull market and has further to go in terms of percentage gains and durations. [We are] not anticipating a new cyclical bear market anytime soon.”

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August 8, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

August 8, 2010....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today. (Moneytalk is broadcast only on Sundays now. The Saturday program was canceled.)

Bob Brinker's miscellaneous points:

* Stock Market: Brinker reiterated that he believes the stock market underwent a correction this spring and summer, and he does not believe it is the start of a bear market.

* No Double-Dip Recession: Brinker said emphatically that he is not in the camp with those predicting a double-dip recession.

* Vanguard GNMA Fund (VFIIX): Bob recommends that those who are concerned about the extremely high net-asset-value of the fund set a "mental stop at $10.90" and sell if it drops to that price. [Honey EC: That would likely get you out of the fund between $10.88 and $10.92, well above the $10.50 that Brinker has always considered the top of the fund's NAV range. The fund is trading at $11.08 right now.]

* The National Debt was $8Trillion five years ago and is over $13 1/4 Trillion now.

* Gross Domestic Product, the economy has been in recovery since Q3 of 2009, but unemployment numbers have gone up to 9.5% from 9.4% one year ago. [headline year-over-year inflation = 1.1%; core inflation = 0.9%

* Non-existent Social Security Trust Fund: Expect changes in Social Security age requirements, but the changes will probably not apply to current recipients. Paul Volcker suggested slowly extending out retirement age requirements -- Bob thinks it's a great idea because of the substantial increases in life expectancies.

Bob Brinker said: "Instead of creating a real Social Security Trust Fund, what the government did was they spent the money. They went to a unified budget many years ago. That was a dramatic change in policy. It gave them the right in Washington to spend the Social Security payroll tax on general expenses. And as a consequence, all we have now in this so-called Social Security Trust Fund is a giant pile of IOUs. In other words, long term, the way Social Security benefits will be paid will be by the Treasury selling Treasury securities to raise money to pay the benefits. That's the long-term business model right now for paying out on Social Security. It's pretty dramatic......So I think the way to get around that is to very slowly ease back the retirement age for future generations -- not for today's beneficiaries."

* The private payroll rose to 71,000 in July, up from 31,000 in June -- averaging out to 51,000 new jobs per month-- this cannot even cover the monthly 100,000 new entrants into job market and consequently, it can do nothing to lower unemployment numbers.

* The Federal Reserve is not going to raise rates at the upcoming meeting on Tuesday, August 10th - next week. Bob Brinker said: "On the contrary, they are going to continue to hold rates near zero percent and they are going to continue to do everything in their power to be stimulative and accommodative in their monetary policy. And the reason I think they are going to continue to do this is because they really have absolutely no choice on this one."

* Education is a top priority for employment:

National average unemployment is 9.5%:
No high school diploma: 13.8%
High school diploma: 10.1 %
Some college: 8.3%
College degree: 4.5%

*Other unemployment demographics:

Adult men: 9.7 (year ago, 9.8%)
Adult women: 7.9% (year ago, 7.6%)
Teens, 16, 17, 18, 19: 26.1 (year ago, 24.5%)
Black teens: 40.5% (year ago, 36%)
White: 8.6% (year ago, 8.7%)
Black "community": 15.6% (year ago, 14.7%
Latino "community": 12.1% (year ago, 12.4%)

* "Free" college in Europe.....Bob Brinker said: "I would say that everybody that has the ability to go to college, should go to college....We don't have that in the United States. We have a financial hurdle you have to get over to afford to go to college or you don't go. But in Europe, you mentioned Europe, specifically in the UK, if college is in your future, you can go to college. That opportunity is afforded you in those countries. In the United States, you've got to get over the financial hurdle or you don't go."

* Broken health-care model.....Bob Brinker said: "I've said this for two decades on this broadcast. There should be no linkage whatsoever between your job and the payment of your health-care costs. They should have never gone down this road and now they're stuck with it......And it's a broken model and it will never work in terms of solving the health-care problems across the USA. There's not a chance."


Caller Rick in California said he had just received this month's issue of Marketimer and noticed that Brinker had a nice "discussion of causes of bear markets." Rick asked Brinker if he could expand on the reasons why rapid growth is not good for the stock market.

Bob Brinker replied: "The reason that we focused in this month's investment letter on the causes of bear markets is because there has been do much bearishness out there recently, talking about a new bear market. Now as we have discussed on this broadcast, as well as written about in the investment letter, that is not my belief. I do not believe we are entering a new bear market at this time. I think we have had a correction for sure......in this spring and summer of 2010. And at its deepest level, it took the S&P 500 on a closing basis, down in the 15-16% range. It's currently down from its closing high about 7.9% on a principal-only basis right now on the S&P, off its closing high back on the 23rd of April.....

[Honey EC: As Brinker said, in the August issue of Marketimer, he wrote that none of the primary causes of a bear market are flashing a warning -- his S&P 500 target-range is currently 1275 to 1325. Brinker recommends dollar-cost-average and outright buy in the "low-1000's" S&P 500 price range.]

......Brinker continued: But you are right, we did write in the investment letter this month about several causes and one of those causes of a bear market is rapid growth. And the reason rapid growth is very important to monitor -- and we don't have that now, and we don't have the prospect of having it now -- is because when you get rapid economic growth, you get fall-out. And all of the fall-out that you get from rapid economic growth is dangerous to the stock market. Let me give you some examples.....One of the fall-out measures would be inflation pressure. When you get a booming economy, rapidly growing, you tend to get pressures on inflation. They show up in the Consumer Price Index, for example.......

......Now in addition to that.....you also get interest rate problems and that causes problems for the market from a competitive standpoint. If people can get high interest rates without taking a lot risk, for example in a Treasury instrument......then very frequently they are going to switch some money to that side out of the stock market.....

.....And when the economy starts to run at full capacity because the factories are working overtime, then you run out of labor slack. Right now, we have excessive labor slack.......All of those things can flow from that one thing that we mentioned in the August investment letter, just out this week.....That's the reason that we include rapid growth as one of the factors that we monitor when we're looking at these types causes......Now the good news is, we don't have it now. And from my point of view, I don't see any prospect at this time that we're going have to worry about rapid economic growth. On the other hand, we are worrying about a gradual or slow-growing economy which has not been creating enough jobs even to take care of the new entrants into the labor force."

[Honey EC: If you want to read Brinker's complete list of the 5-root causes of a bear market, please see my article titled, "Bob Brinker's 5-Root Causes of a Bear Market Not Present Now " Brinker covered them all very thoroughly on the May 22nd Moneytalk program.]

CALIFORNIA MUNI BONDS: A caller from Cupertino, California asked Brinker about putting 30-40% of his portfolio into California muni-bonds. Bob said that if he is going to do that, he should limit his risk to 1% in any one issuer and have a highly diversified portfolio in order "to avoid the pain that comes when a municipality declares bankruptcy. We've already seen the declaration of bankruptcy in Vallejo, California. I think there will be other municipalities in California that likely will go bankrupt." Bob pointed out that a bond fund offers wide diversification but is subject to interest rate risk.

Brinker's guest-speaker was Alan Blinder. Mr. Blinder appeared on Moneytalk September 13, 2008. [LINK]

Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. Moneytalk has been canceled on all Saturdays. The Sunday program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots. To download and listen later, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window: kgofeedback@yahoo.com

This looks like prom or graduation time to me?


This is more recent, but not real recent:



.

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Honeybee on Annuities

August 7, 2010....Bob Brinker has never been a fan of annuities. The following email arrived in my mailbox yesterday. I sure hope this is not another shark-attack victim.

It's a shame that Pam's mother didn't call Bob Brinker's Moneytalk and ask him about annuities before making this decision based on what sounds like a cold call to her home:

Subject:	Question_From_Honeys_Bob_Brinker_Beehive_Blog_Reader
Date:	12:14:34 -0700
From:	Pam xxxxxx@mac.com>
To:	honey88bee@gmail.com

Hello,

I am not sure if this is the correct place to address this question. I have been listening to Bob Brinker for some time but have never had a reason to call in the show. However, recently, as early as yesterday, I received a phone call from my 72 year old mother that she was approached by someone other than her financial advisor to take, move, $300,000 into an Annuity account with Aviva. It is a LifetimePay Plus Version account promising 6% initial return.

I understand that Aviva is rated A but I am very concerned about this move. She has already signed the papers and 2 out of the 3 money transfers from her accounts have been made. Should we be concerned?

Thank you for your time,

Regards,

Pam Hxxxx

Honey's return email to Pam:

Hi Pam,

Firstly, let me state that I am not a financial adviser nor a lawyer, but if this was my mother, I would be concerned for several reasons.

I would want to know if an annuity is the best way for your mother to invest her money based on her overall financial situation -- such as what portion of her net worth is the $300,000.

The fact that they contacted your mother rather than her contacting them, tells me that there is a commission involved. I would want to know how much it was.

I would also want to know what the ongoing costs are and what kind of penalties would be assessed in case your mother should change her mind and want to get out of it.

You say that this "lifetime" annuity pays 6% "initial return." That tells me it is a "variable annuity," so I would certainly want to know how long that amount will be paid and what the ongoing returns will be.

Six percent is a very large amount to guarantee someone these days, even for the short-run. Treasury yields are minuscule and even the 30-year Bond is yielding only 4.0%. And there are no guarantees in the stock market.

Perhaps she should talk to her own financial adviser and find out what he thinks about annuities in general and this one in particular. Perhaps he has some prior experience with Aviva. I have never heard of it until now.

Since you have been listening to Bob Brinker, you are probably aware that he is no fan of annuities. The only company that he recommends for people who are determined to buy annuities against his advice is Vanguard. Here is a link to annuity information at Vanguard.com.


Best Regards....Honey


I searched back through some of my Moneytalk Summaries for Brinker's comments about annuities. Here are a few words of caution:

• Bob Brinker Tidbits of Advice:
• Buying FDIC Certificates of Deposit is not the same as buying Annuities. When bankers tell customers that they are both guaranteed, that is “bull-bleep.” Annuity guarantees are not the same as FDIC guarantees.

• ANNUITIES.....Brinker is totally against buying annuities. He says that a high percentage are inappropriately purchased, have high expenses and surrender charges -- the Vanguard annuity program is the one exception.

Part of the South SF Bay Area Ironman/Vineman Team (in my opinion, the most beautiful part) 8) that raised a half-million dollars to help fight Leukemia last weekend:

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August 1, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: David Korn's Commentary

August 4, 2010....Bob Brinker's Sunday-only Moneytalk program seems to be almost as informative as his Saturday program used to be. Bob Brinker has also begun to include more stock market discussions since the Saturday program was canceled.

David Korn writes a weekly investment newsletter, which includes a summary of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk. In my own summary this week, I focused on the interesting call about Brinker's market-timing, so here are some other interesting program topics that David Korn covered in his newsletter.

The following excerpts from David Korn's newsletter posted with David permission:

August 1, 2010 Newsletter

TAX BATTLE COMING

Brinker Comment: There is going to be a major battle in Congress about tax policy following the summer Congressional recess when politicians return in September. There are tax cuts on the books implemented from earlier in the decade that expire on December 31st of this year. Unless Congress takes action, there will be a whole new set of tax rates going into effect on New Year's Day of 2011. Bob said nobody seems to want the entire set of tax cuts to expire. The President has stated he is comfortable allowing the top tax rates to expire so that only individuals making over $200,000 (married filers making over $250,000) would be effected. The 35% federal marginal tax rate would go to 39.6% and the 33% would go to 36%. Bob noted that in the current economic climate, even some Democrats are starting to cast doubt on whether they want to let these tax cuts expire.
........

Brinker Comment: There is no doubt there will be a lot of wrangling over the many tax issues in play. The President appears to be in agreement on allowing the long term capital gains and dividend tax rates to go up from 15% to 20%. Congress is also going to be grappling with the estate tax which needs some resolution. And they still haven't figured out what to do with the Alternative Minimum Tax which the President wants to adjust for inflation. Congress keeps putting patches on the AMT instead of addressing head on. Bob gave his harshest criticism for the President's idea to cap deductions for things like charitable contributions.
......

Brinker Comment: Bob said in his opinion, now is not the time to raise tax rates. This is a difficult economic environment and you would be hard pressed to find an economists that think raising taxes would be a good idea in this kind of climate.

[David Korn] EC: Ironically, Alan Greenspan who Bob bashed a little later in the broadcast, said this weekend that he disagreed with the notion that the Bush-era tax cuts should be extended upon their expiration at the end of the year. Greenspan says he is in favor of tax cuts, but not with borrowed money.

Brinker Comment: Bob said if it were up to him, he would implement a 12-month extension of the tax cuts.

[David Korn] EC: The Tax Foundation has launched a calculator that allows taxpayers to compare their 2011 federal income tax liabilities under three scenarios: (1) if all the Bush tax cuts expire completely at the end of the year; (2) if they are all extended into 2011 or made permanent; or, (3) if President Obama's budget is adopted which includes a combination of expirations and extensions:

http://www.mytaxburden.org/

GNMA

Caller: There is talk about the government selling its stake in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. How would that impact owning a GNMA mutual fund? Bob said he didn't see any impact. The GNMA situation was established in 1968 and this is a government owned corporation housed in HUD. The whole purpose is that a government guarantee could be provided to certain mortgages. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are different entities and so Bob didn't see any correlation to their status and the net asset value of a GNMA fund.

Caller: How long should you own the Vanguard GNMA Fund? Bob said it would depend on your outlook for interest rates, as well as whether you can tolerate net asset value fluctuation. Bob said the credit backing of GNMAs is solid and he has maintained a major position in GNMA securities in his balanced portfolio and fixed income portfolio. It has done extremely well and is trading at historic highs. Some people won't want to own GNMAs because of fear that the net asset value will decline when interest rates rise. Others just want to collect the interest and aren't worried about the daily fluctuations. The Vanguard GNMA Fund has been a great performer.

[David Korn] EC: The Vanguard GNMA Funds net asset value closed at $11.08 last week. Bob had previously stated that he thought the fund would trade in a general range of $9.50 to $10.50, so the fund has far exceeded his expectations. The fund has a year-to-date return of over 5% with a yield of about 3.19%.

STOCK MARKET DOWNTURN?

Caller: This caller keeps hearing predictions that there will be a stock market downturn in the September/October time frame. Bob said there are always people out there that are going to be made forecasts on the upside and downside and you could pick any month for such predictions. You have to be able to separate good from bad and pay attention to those with a good record.
That said, even the ones with a good record, you have to understand that it is not always easy to forecast the future.

[David Korn] EC: Investors tend to get spooked about the month of October, perhaps because there have been some serious market crashes during that month. On October 29, 1929, the Dow plunged 12.8%, then went on to lose approximately 90% of its value. On October 19 1987, the Dow lost 22.6% of its value in one day. And more recently in October of 2008. The S&P 500 lost more than 27% in a month. On the other hand, I am reminded of Mark Twain's quote about speculating: "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February."
......

Brinker Comment: Right now members of Congress are ignoring the $800 pound gorilla in the room which is the interest that we have to pay each year just to service the debt. For example, the interest alone on the foreign holders is $144 billion for calendar year 2009. And right now, we are borrowing money at low interest rates. The real problem is if we ever get into a scenario where the economy is doing well, then you could see some crowding out in the credit market. That occurs when the demand for money created by expanding corporations and individuals taking out loans causes upward moves in interest rates. Then you could have a major increase in the amount of interest that would have to be paid on this Treasury debt. This debt is a big deal. Congress should have put in a 10-year program to get rid of these deficits. Instead, they keep going on with their spending addiction and don't want to talk about it.
.......

VALUE ADDED TAX

Caller: If Congress establishes a value-added tax, what percentage do you think it would start at? Bob said this is a very popular tax in Europe. If it happened, you could expect something in the teens or less. They wouldn't start it at a higher level than the teens and it is possible they would start in the single digits. What it would be is getting the "camel's nose under the tent." The objective of the proponents of a value tax is to get it on the books at some level. Then it can get jacked up down the road. The wonderful thing about the value added tax for politicians is that it is kind of a stealth tax where you aren¹t seeing your marginal tax bracket go up.

INFLATION - DEFLATION

Brinker Comment: On the fixed income side, rates are so low, it is almost unfathomable. The Three-Month Treasury Bill has an annualized yield of just 14 basis points.

* The six-month Treasury Bill is paying 19 basis points annually.
* The one-year Treasury is yielding 25 basis points.
* The two-year Treasury Note has an annual yield of .53%.
* The Five-year Note is yielding 1.6%.
* The 10-year Note is yielding 2.9%.
* The 30-year Bond is yielding 4.0%.

[David Korn] EC: I don't like those numbers one bit. Think about it. Treasuries are probably the most heavily traded security in the world. And investors world wide are willing to tie up their money for just 60 basis points annually for two years? That doesn't pass the smell test. It's bothering me. The Wall Street Journal reported today that this is a record low in the 2-year Treasury. What's the market trying to tell us? For starters, it is reflecting the fear of a very long period of well-below economic trend. Looks like the concern has indeed shifted from inflation to deflation.

MUNICIPAL BONDS

Brinker Comment: The Ten-year AAA Municipal Bond General Obligations are currently yielding 2.76%. if you were in the 35% top federal tax bracket, that would equate to a little over 4.25% taxable equivalent. That certainly isn't anything fantastic, but that's what is out there right now.

[David Korn] EC: I am not an alarmist at all, but the municipal bond market is bothering me a bit. If we get a few municipalities defaulting at the same time, could start an avalanche. I'd stick with general obligations in the muni market. Can't imagine the Fed not stepping in to bail out a state. But for local cities and things like transportation authorities and such, that's a different story. Check out the very well researched article entitled, "The Muni Debt Bomb" which was published two days ago in the WSJ by a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute...."

David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2010


Honey here: David Korn and Kirk Lindstrom publish "The Retirement Advisor." Here are a few excerpts from The Retirement Advisor about muni bonds:

Municipal Bond Downgrades

"The problems with California’s budgetary crises have brought a new level of concern in the municipal bond market. As noted above, defaults in municipal bonds are rare. More likely and also worrisome to investors are downgrades. In the first quarter, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded 327 municipal issues. That already exceeds the total downgrades of 264 that occurred in 2008. A downgrade doesn’t necessarily mean the municipal bond is doomed. But invariably, a downgrade will result in a decline in the bond’s price value. Typically, the bond will continue to pay its fixed interest (although that is not always the case), but if for some reason you need to sell your holding following a downgrade, you will probably sell at a loss. On the other hand, if you own a diversified municipal bond fund, the impact on a downgrade of any one holding should have minimum impact. The bigger risk holding a municipal bond fund is interest rate risk. When interest rates go up, the bond fund’s net asset value tends to decline. More on municipal bonds in future newsletters."

You can get complimentary issues of David Korn's weekly newsletter and "The Retirement Advisor" at this [LINK]

The Retirement Advisor Portfolios	Dollar Value on 7/31/2010	Change
Model Portfolio 1	$219,682	9.8%
Model Portfolio 2	$231,512	15.8%
Model Portfolio 3	$248,518	24.3%
DJIA 12,501.52 on 1/1/2007	$10,466	(16.3%)
S&P500 1,418.30 on 1/1/2007	$1,101.60	(22.3%)

The Retirement Advisor Model Portfolios all began with $200,000 on 1/1/2007. Returns by year shown at bottom of page 10.

The Retirement Advisor Portfolio Performance By Year Through July 31, 2010
Model Portfolio	2010 YTD	2009	2008	2007	2007 to Now
#1: Aggressive	2.4%	19.7%	(18.2%)	9.5%	9.8%
#2: Moderate Risk	3.3%	13.2%	(8.7%)	8.5%	15.8%
#3: Conservative	4.8%	5.5%	3.7%	8.3%	24.3%

I have read a sample of Bob Brinker's son's fixed income newsletter and in my opinion, David and Kirk's Retirement Advisor is greatly superior.

It's easy to compare and see if you agree with me. You can download a free sample of Brinker's Fixed Income Advisor from his website, and download a free sample of The Retirement Advisor here.

Notice that you will not find 2008 or 2009 performance numbers for Brinker's newsletter on his website. And remember that this Bob Brinker is not the talk show host who publishes Marketimer. Many think that it is, and obviously, that is okay with both Bob Brinkers.
.

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August 1, 2010 Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

August 1, 2010....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today. [BTW: Bob Brinker's Saturday Moneytalk program has been canceled.]

About 45 minutes into the second hour, a caller asked Bob Brinker an important question about his market-timing history during the 2008-2009 Megabear.

In particular, the caller pointed out that right at the beginning of the bear, Brinker had issued an all-in buy-signal at S&P mid-1400's. Evidently, Brinker did not want to admit that he had done that because he spun a very duplicitous tale and hearkened back to the year-2000 and an entirely different bear market!

However, the truth is, Bob Brinker did issue that mid-1400s buy-signal in September, October, November and December of 2007. He even bragged that there had been "18 opportunities" to buy at the mid-1400s "weakness." He also issued it again in January 2008 (then rescinded it on January 20th), the month the Megabear got seriously underway and didn't bottom until March, 2009 at S&P 677.

Caller Frank was VERY CLEAR about what he is asking, but Brinker's shtick is one of confusion and deception to listeners. And rudeness and arrogance toward anyone who simply asks for a little honest transparency.


Caller Frank from San Mateo asked: "As a market-timer, how successful were you in avoiding the horrific bear market of '08 - '09?"

Bob Brinker: "I did not avoid it."

Frank: "Okay, so you sold out before S&P 1400?"

Brinker: "I did not avoid it. You having difficulty hearing me, Frank?

Frank: "No, I heard you in September of '07 recommending lump summing into the market at S&P 1400..... (Brinker interrupts and talks over Frank here)

Brinker: "Frank, let me repeat myself. I did not, I did not, N-O-T avoid it. Is there any part of that you don't understand?"

Frank: "Okay, so you're recommending buying lump-sum at S&P 1400 is incorrect?"

Brinker: "No, my lump-sum recommendation was made in March 11, 2003 [Honey: Frank clearly said "08-09"] when our model portfolios were mostly in cash. [Honey: So "all-in" and "lump-sum" are not the same thing?] We had most of the model portfolio money in cash as a result of a sell signal that was issued in January of year 2000. And that sell signal was issued with the S&P 500 trading in the 1400s. We put most of the model portfolio money [Honey: Brinker raised 60% cash in January 2000] into cash at that time and held it in cash until March 11, 2003. And on that day, the S&P 500 was around 800. And on that day, we recommended taking all of the available cash which was most of the model portfolio money that had been out of the market from the drop from the 1400s in the first quarter of year 2000, it was held in cash, it was placed back in the market March 11, 2003...... That was a lump-sum recommendation derived from cash reserve holdings.....

.....Now there have been various levels along the way since that time where we have made lump sum recommendations [Honey: Oh, I see that "lump-sum" does mean a "buy recommendation" after all . Were you lying about that or confused, Bob?], or in other words recommended the market attractive for purchase. We've done this at various level, but you have to understand, each time we did that, we were fully invested. Every single time we made a lump-sum recommendation since March 11, 2003 to the present, every time, we were already fully invested when we made the recommendation so it would only have applied to money that would have come in the interim. And so that was the recommendation that we made. We made it at several different levels following March 11, 2003, but our model portfolios could not do anything with those recommendations because they were fully invested. ...... [Honey: So what was it that drove Brinker to repeatedly admit that all of his "lump-sum" recommendations are worthless?]

.......And the most recent attractive for purchase recommendation that we made was July 1st of this year, a month ago, when the S&P 500 was at the 1030 level. When the S&P 500 got to the 1030 level, actually on July 1st, a month ago, we recommended that investment letter subscribers who were looking for a buying opportunity, take advantage of that level......And we had a few days there at the beginning of July, stretching out to the 6th of July, where the market remained at that level before moving higher. .....[Honey: Beware of Brinker's "off-the-books" and "off-the-record" and worthless buy-signals. They can be DANGEROUS to your financial health. See the chart below."

......Prior to the July 1st, 2010 recommendation, the last time we made an all-in recommendation was in February of 2009. But remember, we were already fully invested at that time, so it didn't affect the model portfolios in any way. But at that time, with the S&P trading in the low-to-mid 800s, we made an all-in recommendation at that time. [Honey: What Brinker forgot to say is that in March, 2009, it bottomed 150 points below the February buy-signal.] Again, the model portfolios went fully invested around the S&P 500 800 level on March 11, 2003 and they have remained fully invested. This is America's money program. I'm Bob Brinker."

Bob Brinker's marketing-plan is brilliant, but deceptive and costly to both subscribers and listeners who have gotten suckered by the recommendation-blunders that he has never taken responsibility for -- such as the QQQ-trade that certainly DID use model portfolio cash, but he "decided" not to include in the record.

Bob Brinker said that he has been - in essence - a buy-and-holder since March, 2003, while at the same time, he sells himself as a market-timer. He explained that all those lump-sum buys were meaningless because his model portfolios were fully invested all along.

Bob Brinker said it best when he was introducing the program today. He said: "It's all about the money." [$185 times 8 years of buy and hold = $1480]

Caller Frank sent these comments to us:

birdbrain said...

For the record, I was Frank from
San Mateo at 2:40 PST

As you heard, Mr B will not admit his buy recommendations from the radio, only from the newsletter

His attempt at insults "what don't you understand" confirms the arrogance of the host and his disregard of those listeners who may have followed his ruinous advice of a S&P 1400 investment
three years ago

August 1, 2010 4:37 PM [posted here]

Chart courtesy of Kirk Lindstrom, click to enlarge:





Brinker's guest-speaker was Barry Ritholz:



Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. Moneytalk has been canceled on all Saturdays. The Sunday program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots. To download and listen later, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window: kgofeedback@yahoo.com

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