Here are some Bob Brinker excerpts from May 10, 2009:
Bob Brinker said: “The stock market took a big hit in 2008, but the stock market right now is up a little bit for 2009. So the stock market has really kept itself together. You know, I published a statement in January that I thought that 2009 could be a good year for the stock market – and that was back in January……A lot of people thought basically I had gone insane to make a comment like that. Look, it’s only May and we’re already in positive territory. Certainly we can slip back into negative territory for a period. Nobody can rule that out because we are only in minor positive territory using the S&P 500…..I still think 2009 is going to be a significant positive year for the stock market. I’m on record back in January having said that and I’m not changing anything about that forecast. I think that 2009 will be a significant up year for the stock market. And I certainly think that what we have seen so far, despite the volatility…..bears that out."
Bob Brinker said: “I was looking up during the break the comment that I had published in January. I’ll give you the exact quote on that comment, ‘We expect calendar year 2009 to be a significant positive year for the stock market.’ Now year to date, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is in positive territory. But the gains are slight to date because of the volatility we’ve had this year and the uncertainty that the market has had to deal with this year…….But hey, it’s only the 10th of May. The market still has many, many more months in 2009. So I would have to tell you, from everything I’m looking at, and it just represents my opinion of course, that I think that comment is on track – that calendar 2009 should be a significant positive year for the stock market. We’ll see how that works out. I don’t see any reason to make a change in that projection, and that projection was made back in January.”
Please note: Brinker did not publish the statement that he quoted above in Marketimer. ["We expect calendar year 2009 to be a significant positive year for the stock market."] It was a tag line added to his January 15, 2009 special bulletin that he issued to recommend a new-money stock market-bottom buying-opportunity at the S&P "low-to-mid 800's" level. (Of course, two months later, the S&P bottomed at 677.)A few cautionary words about Bob Brinker's "market timing" skills:
* Since March 2003 when Bob Brinker returned all available stock market cash reserves to a fully invested position, Bob Brinker has steadfastly remained a "buy and holder."
* Throughout the bear market that began over 18 months ago, Brinker has never recommended raising any cash reserves.
* For his model portfolios, that translated into a fully invested roller coaster round-trip from S&P 807 to 1565 and back down again to a low of 677 -- a decline of over 50% from market high to market low.
* At the stock market top in late 2007, Brinker was a raging bull. December 5, 2007 (S&P 500 1481.16) Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We continue to believe that a bear market (S&P decline in excess of 20%) is not on the radar screen at this time. We expect the bull market to continue at least well into 2008, and we look for significant stock market gains, including new S&P 500 record highs."
Response by DanG, respected market-analyzer:
PS from DanG: "BTW, those are not recommendations! I don't do those. I'll leave those to Bob and others who get paid to get yelled at!Honeybee: I took this picture of a neighbor's rhododendron:
They are just stocks I like and present them for anyone to do their own due dilligence on. So if they turn out to be "turkeys", don't blame me, please!"
- Dan G
Some readers have asked for a picture of Kirk Lindstrom windsurfing. Here he is in San Francisco Bay at Palo Alto. Kirk says this picture was "shot by a guy with a Canon EOS 40D with a very huge, long lens."
Bob could be right about the market in 2009 being a positive one. But here are a couple of reasons that I don't think so...at least not for the next several (like six at least) months.
- Dan G [LINK]1) The presidential cycle is in its first two unfavorable years (the first two of a presidential term).
2) We are now in the seasonally unfavorable period ranging from approximately May through October.
Also, the three major indexes have approached their downtrending 200-day moving average. And they are all taking a big hit today.
I have only one position, and that's in a master limited partnership recommended in Barron's a few weeks back. Its symbol is MWE and sports a super yield with a low p/e ratio. I don't recommend stocks, but you may want to take a look at this one for yourselves. Disclosure: I own 1,000 shares and it's my only holding at present.