Bob Brinker's Stock Market Bottom, Test and Re-Test
.It has been five months since Bob Brinker said that this current stock market correction had bottomed in January, and four months since Brinker said that the stock market had "completed a sucessful test of the bottom area in mid-March."
According to Peter Brimelow’s February 21, 2008 Marketwatch article, Bob Brinker said:
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"The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on Jan. 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the Jan. 22 closing low........We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
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"As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S$P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009."
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In Mark Hulbert's June 2, 2008, Marketwatch article, he wrote the following about Bob Brinker's stock market outlook:
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"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested."
Also, in the June 4, 2008 issue of Marketimer, Brinker said that since the March test of the lows: ".......a renewed uptrend has been underway, and we expect the market to trade with an upward bias until new record highs are achieved above the S&P 500 Index closing high of 1565.15 registered last October. Our S&P 500 Index price target remains in the 1600 range either late this year or in 2009."
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Since Brinker made that prediction on June 4, 2009, the S&P has dropped from 1400 back down to 1337.- Will the S&P reach Brinker's January 2008 "low-1300's" buying opportunity range again?
- What about the low that Brinker never mentioned either on Moneytalk or Marketimer that happened in March when the S&P dipped into the 1250 range?
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Jim Firestone wrote on Kirk's Facebook Bob Brinker Discussion Forum:
Honeybee replied:
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Hi Jim,
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You made all good points. Indeed, Brinker IS in a bind. He did away with the whole secular bear megatrend back in June, 2007 (he said it ended in June 2006), and has been ultra-bullish ever since.
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He was totally wrong back in October 2007 when he was predicting S&P 1600 and more new highs. Then in January, he said the market was "favorable as we enter 2008."
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OOOPS! About 3 days later the correction that he didn't "expect" began.
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Indeed, even his market-timing prognostications since January are not looking good.
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Of course, his Model Portfolios have been fully invested throughout this rather nasty 2008 market, so over the long-run, he will not take "credit" for any of these market timing blunders. When the market moves up again, he will just hearken back to March 2003.
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- "The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently."_________John C. Bogle
- "Well, let me tell you, I have been following markets for about 50 years, and I've never met anybody who could time the market correctly. And I say, stay the course............. And what I'm absolutely convinced of is: You'll NEVER, NEVER, NEVER be able to time the market._____Burton Malkiel
