May 29, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Bob Brinker did not host Moneytalk this weekend. Bob Brinker's replacement guest-host was Lynn Jimenez.

Saturday, Ms. Jimenez made the comment that she is a business reporter for KGO radio, not a financial advisor. In my opinion, she's an excellent business reporter.

According to Bob Brinker's brief announcement last weekend, this is the last Saturday Moneytalk will be broadcast. Brinker's program will be broadcast on Sundays only.

Year-to-date, the Dow in down 2.8%, and the S&P 500 Index is down 2.3%. And the Nasdaq is down 21% since 2007. Brinker is on record saying the market is only in a correction and will not become a bear market because none of the five roots causes of a bear market are in play.

Moneytalk, May 8th, Brinker said:

.....Remember we had a correction in January and February. It lasted three weeks and it was 8.1% in the S&P 500. A lot of people saw that correction and said the world is coming to an end, run for the hills. They were wrong. Now we've seen an 8.7% correction to date that has been in process for the last couple of weeks since late April which has been against the backdrop of what's been happening in Greece and in Europe, and we getting those same screams from these people who are panicking and saying run for the hills, it's all over. Well, that's their opinion, that is not my opinion.....

.....I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to derail the United States economic recovery. And as a consequence of that belief, I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to produce a bear market in the United States. Bear markets are defined as losses in the major indexes, such as the S&P 500, in excess of 20% on a closing basis."

Moneytalk, May 22, Brinker said:

......You know, just a couple of weeks ago in my investment letter, this is what I wrote, quote: "Any short-term weakness is viewed as a health-restoring event." I also went on to write earlier this month that I would take a more positive view with regard to investing new money into the market during a correction for those who find themselves under-invested. And I do believe that those who are looking for opportunities to make additions to their stock market portfolios and are using this correction and periods of weakness within this correction -- there have been plenty of those. I think that's a reasonable course of action....

....So from my point of view, I think it's a correction. I don't think we are going into a bear market, defined as a decline of more than 20% of the S&P 500 Index. And I also believe that when the correction is over, we are going to see new recovery highs in the S&P 500 Index. That's what I think. I'm Bob Brinker. This is America's money program."


I took these pictures this morning on my morning walk. Both trees are absolutely beautiful. Enlarge to get a better view of the blossoms:



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Bob Brinker's Secular Bear Megatrend: First He Saw it, Then He Didn't, Now he Sees it Again

Bob Brinker seems to be very good at spotting those market trends in the rear-view mirror. It's just too bad that Bob Brinker doesn't have enough integrity to tell the whole truth. Instead, he just leapfrogs backwards over his blunders. Why do I say that? Here's why:

Sunday, a caller asked Bob Brinker if he thought we were still in a secular bear market. Brinker told the caller, yes, it began in the first quarter of year-2000 and this is the 11th year of it. Brinker just happened to neglect to say that he had taken a little detour from this bit of market-timing shtick over those eleven years:

Brinker first spotted that secular bear market in August, 2001:

August 2001 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:

"U.S. stock market entered a secular bear market in the first
quarter of year 2000.

Standard and Poor's 500 Index: 1527.46 = March 24, 2000

Dow Jones Industrial Average 11722.98 = January 14, 2000 "

June, 2007, just months before the market reached its all-time-high, Brinker said that the "secular bear megatrend" had retroactively ended in June, 2006.

June, 2007, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:

"In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P 500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."

In May, 2009, just months after the market had dropped 55%+, Brinker changed his mind and said that the secular bear megatrend hadn't ended after all.

May, 2009 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:

"Although it appeared to us that the secular bear megatrend that began in year-2000 had reached its conclusion, there is no question that the secular bear megatrend remains intact...."

Brinker explained to the caller that his "timing model" work is based on cyclical markets. Maybe that explains why the return to an intact secular bear market. Can you have a cyclical bull market inside of a secular bull market? I don't know, but it sure wouldn't be as exciting, would it?

== > In Edit: June, 2011: Bob Brinker has not changed his stance on the secular/cyclical aspect of the stock market. He believes the cyclical bull market is intact within a secular bear market. Brinker's model portfolios are still fully invested and he advises dollar-cost-averaging for new money:

May 2011 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "....we prefer a doll-cost-average approach for new stock market money.....All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested."
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May 22, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk May 22, 2010:

Bob Brinker said: "The Dow at 10,193, S&P 500 at 1087, the Nasdaq at 2229 and the Nasdaq 100 at 1822. Now the the total rate of return year-to-date on the S&P 500 is negative 1 3/4%, that includes cash dividends and price change. The Wilshire 5000.....minus 0.95%.....So what's going on out there?.....Let's look at this market and see if we can put some semblance of order into what is going out there. I know there is a lot of emotion in the market and a lot of politics, too, especially with what's coming out of euro-land.......

......What are the root causes of a bear market. We don't have a bear market here -- we have a correction.....The S&P 500 is down about 10 1/2% from its closing high, been down as much as 12%, as of this past Thursday at the close.....So this is a correction. Anything below a 20% decline is considered a correction in Wall Street. So we have a correction -- that we know. What about this talk we hear out there about a bear market.....Are we going to have a bear market right now, here.....I'll give you my perpective on the way I look at that because I use several filters when I analyze the causes of a bear market. Now it's true you can have exogenous factors like you did in 2008, where you had the subprime meltdown and it definitely was an unusual situation because it led to a banking crisis.......

.....First one of the root causes of a bear market is tight money. What is tight money. That is when the Federal Reserve pulls in their horns, takes away the punch bowl, restricts the growth of the money supply. And money is harder to get, and as a result money price of money goes up....Do we have that now? No. Do we have the prospect of having that now? No. We have easy money now and the Federal Reserve is clearly on an easy money track.....especially with what is going on in Europe.....

......What's another root cause of a bear market? No question, rising interest rates. I'm not talking about the federal funds rate going from 1 to 2. I'm talking about a meaningful rise in interest rates.....When we look at the rates today, they are low, low, low. How low are they? Well, 3-month Treasury Bills are 15 basis points. That's about 1/7 of 1% a year. Six-month Bills are 21% basis points....One-year Treasuries are about 1/3 of 1% annual. Two-year Treasuries about 3/4 of 1% annual. Five-year Treasuries at 2%. Ten-year Treasury Bonds at 3 1/4. Thirty-year Bonds at 4.1........Rising rates are not a problem as we look at the market place right now.......

.......What's another root cause of a bear market, a decline in excess of 20% in the S&P 500......No question about it, Hyperinflation, rising inflation. Do we have that? No. I know there are a lot of people out predicting it, but they've been wrong. Right now we have a year-over-year Consumer Price Index increase of 2.2. And better than that, the year-over-year core Consumer Price Index is one of the lowest of all times. It's 0.9.....excluding food and energy......So if you've been betting on inflation, well, that horse fell somewhere down a back stretch. I hope it's okay. ......We don't have an inflation problem right now......

.....What's another cause of a bear market. At the root, it's rapid economic growth and a boom in the economy. The economy is roaring ahead. Do we have that? Not on your life. Not even close......Some people are worried about a double dip.....

....And another root cause of a bear market is over-valuation. When stock prices are so high relative to valuations they're on the moon like they were in January of 2000. Well, not true. We don't have over-valuation right now. We have good valuation right now.....

....So all five of those are no's. We don't have tight money. We don't have rising rates problems. We don't have rising inflation problems. We don't have rapid growth in the economy and we certainly don't have over-valuation in the stock market......Out of five possible root causes of a bear market, we have zero. That is why I am of the opinion that we are not in a bear market. I know there are people out there that are saying, ohhh, Katy bar the door. They have every right in a free country to express that view, but I am not in that camp. I do not believe this is a bear market. I think it's a correction. And obviously, corrections are always the same...they cause a lot of angst and we are seeing that right now.....and that is what they are supposed to do.....

......You know, in my investment letter this year, I wrote that quote: "Cyclical bull market corrections typically fall within a range of 5-10% and sometimes reach the teens in percentage terms." All of those are less than 20. And we've already been down as much as 12% Thursday night. There's nothing unusual about such corrections. They've occupied the headlines in the financial sections many times in the past during cyclical bull markets. And after we all saw the S&P 500 rise 80% in almost a straight line in a period a little over one year. Well the market certainly is entitled to have a correction of some consequence along the way, doncha think?......

......You know, just a couple of weeks ago in my investment letter, this is what I wrote, quote: "Any short-term weakness is viewed as a health-restoring event." I also went on to write earlier this month that I would take a more positive view with regard to investing new money into the market during a correction for those who find themselves under-invested. And I do believe that those who are looking for opportunities to make additions to their stock market portfolios and are using this correction and periods of weakness within this correction -- there have been plenty of those. I think that's a reasonable course of action....

....So from my point of view, I think it's a correction. I don't think we are going into a bear market, defined as a decline of more than 20% of the S&P 500 Index. And I also believe that when the correction is over, we are going to see new recovery highs in the S&P 500 Index. That's what I think. I'm Bob Brinker. This is America's money program."

Misc. Bob Brinker points:

* There was a lot of discussion about possible reasons for the stock market's May 6th "flash crash." Brinker made the point that even though there has been lots of speculation, it still remains a mystery -- and it definitely needs more investigation.

* Regarding stop losses: A lot of people with them got hurt on May 6th. Brinker said: "Sooner or later they are going to take you out." And: "It's a matter of live by the sword, die by the sword." [Honey EC: That seems to me like a rather strong expression.]

* Regarding Greece: Brinker doesn't think that Greece will "sink the world economy."

* Brinker talked quite a lot about the almost $13 Trillion National Debt and called it a "disgrace." He believes that changes need to be made to entitlement programs, including Social Security. After much discussion about the US national fiscal irresponsibility, Brinker said: "We are talking about the future of our Republic."

* Brinker said that the new health care plan is a "gigantic new entitlement." He said the claims that were made about insurance companies having to take patients with "pre-existing conditions" is not true. He said that all they have to do to "get off the hook" is pay a daily fine of $100 for each case, which is a lot cheaper than accepting patients with pre-existing conditions.

* In response to a caller who mentioned Black Monday in October 1987, Brinker said that was a day that "will live in infamy," but that it did not come close to "bear market parameters" at its "absolute low."

* Brinker revealed a tidbit about his past to caller-Debbie. He said that many years past, he was almost killed by a big rig on a Texarkana Bridge.

Bob Brinker's Saturday guest-speaker was Laurence Kotlikoff:



Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The three hours of the programs are archived Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm. To download the programs and listen later, just choose the day, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window: kgofeedback@yahoo.com

Saturday, at the end of hour-three, Bob Brinker made the announcement that he will be hosting Moneytalk on Sundays only, beginning June 6th. Blog readers have known that for a couple of weeks now. 8)

Dixiegeezer's Parrots in Love:


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Did Bob Brinker Do it Again?

Bob Brinker is known for missing bear markets. Matter of fact, in the past 24 years, he has only PARTIALLY called one bear market -- that was in 2000 when he sold 65% of equities in his model portfolios. Bob Brinker missed the mega-crash in 1987 and the 1998 almost-20% bear. And he was a roaring bull during the worst bear market of our lives -- 2008-2009.

[CNBC is reporting that the S&P 500 Index is now "red for the year."]

Brinker was absent from Moneytalk last weekend, but here are his most recent market prognostications:

May 5, 2010, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "We view any short-term periods of market weakness as a health-restoring event within the context of an ongoing cyclical bull market.....we recommend using a dollar-cost-averaging approach for new stock market investing....in cases where new subscribers find themselves underinvested [sic]."

May 8, 2010 Moneytalk, Bob Brinker said: "....I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to derail the United States economic recovery. And as a consequence of that belief, I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to produce a bear market in the United States. Bear markets are defined as losses in the major indexes, such as the S&P 500, in excess of 20% on a closing basis."

[Note that Brinker gives himself a 20% stock market decline leeway so he can claim he is "right." Any market declines that are less than that, he says are normal corrections. Obviously, one should not expect him to get you out of the market for anything less than a 20% decline! And obviously, his batting average for larger declines is almost non-existent.]

David Korn wrote the following Bob Brinker bear market commentary in his July 5-6, 2008 Newsletter. Posted with David's permission:
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Bob Brinker has missed bear markets in the past.  In the late
80s, he missed one, but he claims to have changed his timing
model after that to include the Sentiment Indicator. Also,
back in 1998, the Dow declined 19.4% on a closing basis,
and 21% on an intra-day basis he stayed fully invested.

Of course, the market went on a tear after the bottom was in,
and daBrink claimed that his model had stayed correctly
invested since it wasn't technically a 20% decline on a
closing basis.  But if you remember back to
1998, sitting through a 19% plus decline wasn't any
walk in the park.

If the S&P 500 manages to stay above the 1262 level
on a closing basis, I am sure Bob will crow again
that his model worked as it should have. Personally,
I think we will get the bear on a closing basis.  Stay
tuned."

David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob
Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials,
 and Special Alert E-Mail Service.  Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2008

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I took these pictures a couple of days ago. 

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May 15, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Posted May 15, 2010....Bob Brinker did not host Moneytalk this weekend . His fill-in for Saturday was Neale Godfrey.

Ms Godfrey did a good job today. There was a lot of discussion about how financially illiterate "our" children are from lack of education on the subject. She talked at length about the oil spill and the financial problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. She does not make predictions about the direction of the stock market, but basically sounded optimistic about an economic recovery.

[SUNDAY UPDATE: Brinker's Sunday fill-in host was Lynn Jimenez.]

BOB BRINKER REVIEW

Last weekend on Moneytalk, Bob Brinker had this to say about the economy and stock market:

.....I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to derail the United States economic recovery. And as a consequence of that belief, I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to produce a bear market in the United States. Bear markets are defined as losses in the major indexes, such as the S&P 500, in excess of 20% on a closing basis."

May 5, 2010, Marketimer, Brinker said: "We expect the S&P 500 Index to make additional progress into the upper-1200's to low-1300's range going forward."


Bob Brinker and his fill-in hosts have largely turned Moneytalk into political talk. My friend, "Fluffy Bunny" commented:

What has always amazed me about our Founding Fathers is the vast breadth and depth of their understanding of philosophy, business, Government and human nature. It was rather unique period of time when men who were aspiring to leadership were overall expected to well schooled in several disciplines.

Having the misfortune to have met several Congressmen, Senators and a couple of Presidents (before they became Presidents), I can truly say I am underwhelmed by so many of those who were elevated to such positions of power. Most are clearly intellectually inferior and it is shameful that they think they have the judgment or intellectual where withal to govern.

Take the current buffoon holding the Chief Executive position, a man of middling intellect at best, who merely mimics some of the speech patterns of men of thought. He clearly stood revealed for the intellectual lightwieght he is when he debated Alan Keyes for the U.S. Senate. Keyes, a truly brilliant, albeit eccentric, man dished out one of the most brutal intellectual beatings I ever have witnessed administered to Barack Obama.

It was a one sided battle of substance over rhetoric; too bad the voter of Illinois are collectively a bunch of idiots and elected this shiftless, substance-less, deceitful, dolt to a higher office.

Of course this type of commentary is what you get now that Da Brink has turned Money Talk into the ignorant political hack with a microphone radio program.

What really riles me is people tend to assume anyone discussing financial matters over the airwaves actually knows what they are speaking of so when they start with political commentary I believe it has undue influence.

the fluffy bunny

May 16, 2010 1:05 PM

Here is a picture of Fluffy Bunny (holding the flag) and Rick Biesada, the founder of the Chicago Minute Men Project and author of "The Angry White Men and the Horse He Rode in On." Fluffy Bunny provides security for the Minute Men. I know I'd certainly feel safe with him around. 8)

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Bob Brinker's Market-Timing Over Past Ten Years

Posted May 14, 2010....Today, Drudge reported that the Dow closed exactly where it was ten years ago. Bob Brinker sells himself as a market-timer. See ten-year Dow chart.

It was pointed out to me that if you plug the S&P 500 Index into that same chart, it shows that it is down 20% over the same time frame! Bob Brinker uses the S&P as a market gauge: Here is the ten-year chart.

On Moneytalk (when the market gives him opportunities) Bob Brinker will infer that he has made some good timing moves, even when he has actually made no changes whatsoever to his model portfolios and has not raised any cash reserves.



Joe sent these comments (posted here):

"As BB hate to admit he missed the 2008 correction; and the jury is still out on the lastest correction 5/4 - 5/14 when all gains for the year was wiped out.

No fun taking a roundtrip; wise to take some profits off the table once you have at least a 20%-25% gains.

BB does not want to wipesaw readers in and out of the markets."

My reply to Joe:

"You are correct that Brinker does not do short term trades anymore.

The last one he did was when he predicted a "countertrend rally" in October 2000 and sent the special bulletin advising subscribers to use up to half of their Model Portfolio cash reserves (65%) to purchase QQQQ at $83.

That trade has never been closed and today QQQQ is selling for $46.93 (almost TEN YEARS LATER).

But OTOH, it is ridiculous for a financial adviser who sells himself as a market-timer to remain fully invested as the stock market drops 50%+.

I would be curious as to how you think "the jury is still out" for Brinker on this latest correction.

You are aware that he has made ZERO cash reserve changes since March 2003 when he returned all Model Portfolios to fully invested?"

So the question remains, if Bob Brinker has been fully invested since 2003, including the ravenous bear market of 2008-2009, by what stretch of logic should Brinker get credit for the 2009 - 2010 market gains? And how many round-trips and failed "buying opportunities" should Brinker get before it becomes clear even to himself that he cannot time the stock market.

This chart (courtesy of Kirk Lindstrom) shows Brinker stock market timing calls since 2003.



All I would add to that chart is that in January 2000, Brinker raised 60% cash reserves, and increased that to 65% in August 2000.

[Bob Brinker's radio talk show time will be cut to one day only (Sundays) beginning June 6th. Please see prior post.]
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Bob Brinker's Moneytalk Program Time Cut in Half

This news about Bob Brinker was posted Sunday May 9th at 4:21PM: NTS MediaOnline.

I was celebrating Mother's Day with my family, so only read the news this morning.

Bob Brinker Cuts His Mic Time in Half

"After hosting MoneyTalk every Saturday and Sunday for almost 25 years, Bob Brinker says it’s time for him to spend just a bit less time behind the microphone. Beginning June 6th, the Citadel Media syndicated financial talk show will move to a Sunday-only schedule, where it will continue to air in its familiar 4-7pm (ET) time slot. In a memo sent to MoneyTalk affiliates about the move, Citadel Media SVP Carl Anderson said, “We’re grateful for Bob’s dedication to the show and its affiliates through the years and proud that we will still be offering his insight on the economic factors shaping our country.” Along with his weekly Talk radio show, Brinker is also the publisher of Marketimer, his award-winning monthly investment newsletter."



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May 8, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

SUNDAY UPDATE: I was celebrating Mother's Day with my family Sunday, so did not hear any of Bob Brinker's Moneytalk. A big thank you to those who heard the program and sent their comments about it!!!

Posted May 8, 2010....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk this weekend.

GREECE AND THE US ECONOMY: Brinker said: "We are going to talk about what is happening in Greece and Euroland, which of course has been at the heart of the stock market trepidation that we have seen. But the reality is the crisis, in my opinion, is not going to derail the United States economic recovery."

STOCK MARKET: Brinker said: "If I'm right about this, the crisis in Greece is not going to derail the United States economic recovery, then it's not going to derail the United States bull market that we have been in since March 2009. Remember this started at S&P 676, right now it's setting in around 1110. It's had a tremendous run, but it's 8.7% below it's recovery high in this second correction of 2010.....

.....Remember we had a correction in January and February. It lasted three weeks and it was 8.1% in the S&P 500. A lot of people saw that correction and said the world is coming to an end, run for the hills. They were wrong. Now we've seen an 8.7% correction to date that has been in process for the last couple of weeks since late April which has been against the backdrop of what's been happening in Greece and in Europe, and we getting those same screams from these people who are panicking and saying run for the hills, it's all over. Well, that's their opinion, that is not my opinion.....

.....I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to derail the United States economic recovery. And as a consequence of that belief, I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to produce a bear market in the United States. Bear markets are defined as losses in the major indexes, such as the S&P 500, in excess of 20% on a closing basis."

Honey EC: Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested (as they have been since March, 2003) and he is again recommending dollar-cost-averaging. May 5, 2010, Marketimer, Brinker said: "We expect the S&P 500 Index to make additional progress into the upper-1200's to low-1300's range going forward." Remember that Brinker was fully invested for a 50%+ market decline in 2008-2009. His model portfolio I lost over 50% during that time. Brinker's balanced portfolio III, which is for retirees, lost 23.9% in the bear market that ended March, 2009 and is still underwater.

THURSDAY STOCK MARKET EVENT: Brinker discussed the Thursday stock market 1000-point drop and 700-point bounce back extensively today. He called it "bizarre," a "casino," "absurd," etc. He said the "circuit breaker methodology" clearly did not work and something needs to be done to restore confidence in the market.

STOP LOSS/LIMIT ORDERS: There were a few callers who had stop loss orders in place and got hurt. Brinker does not recommend stop losses and called them "dangerous."

FRIDAY JOBS REPORT/UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: Brinker said: "The new jobs report that came out on Friday is the best new jobs report we've seen in four years.....Private payrolls advanced 231,000 in the month of April and were upwardly revised in March to 174,000.....That's sounds pretty good, but can you tell me why the unemployment rate went up? Yes, as we've said on the broadcast, the unemployment rate is going to be really stubborn and remains so at 9.9...up from 9.7. And the reason is because hundreds of thousands are coming into the workforce because they see the economy turning around."

INFLATION: Core inflation at 1.1%.

Honey EC: Brinker, as usual, took every opportunity to bash big spending in Washington, but during his guest-speaker interview he made what I consider his lowest cheap-shot demagogue against the Tea Party in general and Sarah Palin in particular....

Yo, Mr. Brinker, out of all the names you could have bashed today, you chose Sarah Palin to cheap shot. Why is that, SIR? Are you not aware that Governor Palin was fiscally very conservative when she was Governor of Alaska? Are you not aware that she has not been responsible for one DIME that was spent in Washington DC? What is it about women in politics that sticks so firmly in your craw?

Bob Brinker's Saturday guest-speaker was John Steele Gordon:



Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The three hours of the programs are archived Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm. To download the programs and listen later, just choose the day, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window: kgofeedback@yahoo.com

Dixiegeezer took this gorgeous picture:


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Brinker's Take on Bad News Bears Before the Bear Bit and Brinker's Take Now

Posted May 2, 2010:

Lest readers get too comfortable with what Brinker said on Moneytalk yesterday (see the next post) about "discounting sources" that are making bearish predictions, take a look at what he was saying in the early innings of the greatest bear market decline since the Great Depression.

The following is from my May 31, 2008 Moneytalk summary:

February 4, 2008 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S&P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009.". .

[Moneytalk May 31, 2008] Bob Brinker gave the following market statistics: “The stock market had a good month in the month of May, finishing at 1400.38 in the S&P 500 Index……….a gain of about 1.48%.........and for the second consecutive month the market showed gains. The Dow finished the month at 12,638, that was up 1.3% for the week……..and the Nasdaq Composite had a big week – up 3.2% to close at 2522.”

CORRECTION LOW AND TESTS.... Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."

STOCK MARKET BEARS.... Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.....

.....We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”__Bob Brinker

Steve T took this picture. Steve said: "This one is sort of unique. It was taken on on a Prairie Chicken lek. The bird on the right is a male Prairie Chicken the one of the left is a male Sharp Tail Grouse. I guess the Prairie Chicken is not happy the Sharp Tail is that close to a prospective mate. "

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May 1, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

May 1, 2010....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today. Most of the program was devoted to the tragic Gulf Coast oil spill -- along with some repetitious political talk. The only comments Brinker made about the markets that you might be interested in are these:

Brinker said: "There's a lot of alarmist talk out there and sometimes, unfortunately, it's for a vested reason. Let me give you an example. Suppose you were forecasting a market decline. Well, if you were forecasting a market decline, you're probably pretty upset right now because the market has had a tremendous run in the past year. So you might come up and say, well you know, we're going to go bankrupt and everything is going to zero -- or something like that to keep your followers in line.....

....I would discount forecasts coming from two sources right now. I would discount forecasts coming from those predicting a stock market collapse right now because they've been wrong and they are trying to save face. And I would also discount such rhetoric coming from precious metals vendors because they need that to sell their stuff.....And I hear this stuff all the time and it's basically not credible in my point of view."


Brinker's Saturday guest speaker was Paul Ingrassia:



Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The three hours of the programs are archived Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm. To download the programs and listen later, just choose the day, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window: kgofeedback@yahoo.com

A dear family member took this picture a couple of days ago nearby my home:


SteveT. sent this picture. Steve said: "I titled this one "Calm of the Wild". The animal is a wolf. Fear not he is a pampered model. I took it a photo workshop."



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