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Sunday, June 27, 2010

June 27, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today. Bob Brinker's Moneytalk has been canceled on Saturdays -- it is only broadcast on Sundays.

STOCK MARKET: Brinker recited the closing stock market numbers and pointed out that the S&P 500 Index is now 1077, just 11 1/2% below its April 23rd closing high.

June 6, 2010 Moneytalk, Bob Brinker said:
"Suffice to say this. I think that we're in a correction. I think that when all is said and done, it will amount to less than 20% on a closing basis from the 1217.....April 23rd high....So far, we're at 12 1/2%.....I've seen some things develop on the sentiment side that are definitely going in the right direction. There are some other things that I'd like to see fall in place and sometimes it takes some time for these things to fall in place.....We're in a dollar-cost-average mode at this juncture.....

......To answer your question very specifically, I think the market is driven by earnings. And I think corporate earnings are looking very, very good in 2010. And I think the outlook for 2011 is encouraging as we look forward.....I actually think when correction runs out of gas -- and I believe it will run out of gas, that we're going to see a market that is not only going back to the 1217 level of late April, but will rise above that level quite significantly, frankly. And I think those that go with that market are going to be happy campers....I can't join those who think it just gets worse and worse from here."



[Honey EC: Brinker's stock market roller-coaster ride rivals the Giant Dipper at the Santa Cruz Boardwalk. I Hope you have been buckled up for the last seven years that Brinker has had his followers and Model Portfolios fully invested for this ride. In my opinion, the ride will continue forever. I do not believe that Brinker will ever again issue a "sell signal" to raise cash. I have discussed the reasons why I think that, but would be happy to answer any questions about how I arrived at that conclusion.

However, Brinker has again begun to dangle that rubbery maybe-there-will-be-a-buy-signal carrot. No matter that it would be pointless if you are currently all-in and dollar-cost-averaging, as he advises -- unless you won a lottery or Aunt Tillie left you a bundle.
] 8)

* Here we go....All Aboard!
Bob Brinker returned 65% cash reserves (not counting what was already invested in his QQQQ trade of 2000-2001) to fully invested March, 2003, when the S&P 500 Index was at 811.

* Going up:
The S&P 500 Index all-time-high was 1565 on October 9, 2007.

* Going down: [Honey sez, Yeeeooowww! 8)]
The S&P 500 Index bear market low was 677 on March 9, 2009.

* Going up:
The S&P 500 Index cyclical bull market high was 1217 on April 23, 2010.

* Going down:
[So far] The S&P 500 Index maximum "cyclical bull market" correction number is 12 1/2% -- according to Bob Brinker.


According to the latest Hulbert Financial Digest, Bob Brinker is no longer one of the "Top 5 Performers" during the past 5, 10, or 15 years of all the newsletters that Mark Hulbert ranks.

While Bob Brinker steadfastly stays bullish, Mark Hulbert has written a Marketwatch article (July 10, 2009) saying that his top-performing adviser is now back in cash.

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Dan Sullivan has thrown in the towel on the stock market's four-month-old rally.

That's bad news, since Sullivan is not just any adviser.

His stock newsletter, entitled The Chartist, is in first place for stock market timing over the last three decades among those newsletters the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over this period. And though his mutual-fund newsletter -- The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter -- hasn't been published for all three of those decades, it also is one of the top performers over the years it has existed.

So the bull market has lost a formidable ally......" Read more


Last month, Brinker itemized what he believes are the "5 root causes of a bear market" and stated that there were none of them visible at the present time (these are all available in my May 22nd Summary) [LINK] and Brinker added this: "....So from my point of view, I think it's a correction. I don't think we are going into a bear market, defined as a decline of more than 20% of the S&P 500 Index. And I also believe that when the correction is over, we are going to see new recovery highs in the S&P 500 Index. That's what I think. I'm Bob Brinker."


INTEREST RATES: No changes....Fed indicated that interest rates will remain low for an "extended period of time."

MAY DEFICIT: $136Billion....Revenue (mostly tax income) of $147Billion collected in May. Outgo at $283Billion in May -- almost two dollars going out for every one coming in.

PRESIDENT IS EMBARRASSMENT TO THE UNITED STATES: Bob Brinker said: "Until someone in Washington takes the bull by the horns, or until the voters make enough changes in Washington to change the policy, we are stuck with this government......One good thing has happened on the global stage....There are some leaders out there who are out there right now talking about getting their budget deficits down in their particular countries.....

......Let me mention three of these to you.....One of them would be the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel. I have a lot of respect for her, she's very much out front on this issue.....David Cameron, the new Prime Minister of Great Britain, very much out front on this issue. And third and not least, Nicholas Sarkozy, the President of France.....These are three European leaders out there going in the right directions.....

......At this G-20 Summit this weekend, our president is out there trying to tell these people to spend more money. It's ludicrous. It's an embarrassment! (caller interjected: "It's humiliating.") I think we have to give kudos to those three leaders for trying to get a hold on spending instead of going on this runaway freight train spending spree that the United States continues on as we speak.....I'm Bob Brinker. This is America's money program."


Brinker's guest speaker today was William Isaac:




This picture shows the exact opposite of TFB's careful gardening and wrapped apples. This tree is totally neglected -- no water, no pruning, no fertilizer. But it is so determined to live that it grows from many feet below my deck on the side of the hill and hangs over and produces fruit every year. If you look closely, you will see it is loaded with small green apples. The wild life usually enjoys them long before they are sweet enough for me. I took this picture this afternoon:


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84 comments:

Anonymous said...

I did not hear all of Da Brink today as I was harvesting raspberries but I noticed something.

Not being the Brinker historian many are, I noticed Bob did say one thing I found very interesting and it was in regard to the people he invites on the show. He distinctly mentioned that he was looking for the equivalent of a diversity of opinions and to allow the listeners to make up their own minds.

Now, my hat is off to him if this becomes a new trek for the Starship Moneytalk and if Brinker adopts the position of an honest interviewer. In the past, Brinker had back talked guest when they were off the air and not capable of rebuttal, however I would encourage this as a new direction for the Starship.

I have to admit I chuckled when the next call was one of those Bob is great cheerleaders who praised Bob for all he had down for him and then went on to explain how he did not actually follow Brinker's advice and had tied up a good portion of his money in 5 year Treasury's at four plus percent and was concerned about the renewal.

To Honey:

Try slicing the green apples and gently frying them. You could then add sugar and cinnamon. Personally I like frying green apples with potatoes, caramelized onion and sauerkraut of all things and serving with a little lean turkey ham.

birdbrain said...

Two calls you will not hear on Moneytalk:

"Hi,Bob. You think that we are currently in a market correction and dollar cost average mode. Could you explain the difference in market sentiment today versus almost three years ago when you recommended a lump-sum buy at S&P 1400 though at the time the index was only ten percent off its all time high?"

"Hello, Mr Brinker. I've heard you promoted as 'America's Most Trusted Financial Adviser'. Who awarded you this distinction?"

Honeybee said...

Good morning TFB,

Aw yes, "harvesting raspberries"....the thought of vine-ripened berries makes my mouth water. YUM!

I too heard Brinker make that comment about how he likes to invite guests that had opinions different from his own.

However, you are correct that most of the time in the past when guests have said something that he didn't not agree with, rather than confront them on the spot or simply "let the audience make up their own minds," he has waited until they are gone (sometimes even the next day) and then made his criticism and rebuttal.

I especially remember how he did that to Larry Swedroe who was bearish at the beginning of 2008. Brinker took great umbrage at that. History shows that Swedroe was absolutely correct.

The caller who praised Brinker and then gave away that he didn't actually follow Brinker, must have gone over my head. I have come to expect it, because I have never heard a caller who actually has followed all of Brinker's advice.

Even those who use his model portfolios, often call to ask about making substitutions.

PS: Thank you for the great suggestion on cooking my little green apples. 8)


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Anonymous said...

thanks for your comments summarizing brinkers radio show. You have to be one of his most loyal listeners!!!

Honeybee said...

Hi Birdbrain, 8)

Your questions are good ones, but as you said, they will never be heard on Moneytalk.

All I can say about who awarded him the title, "America's Most Trusted Financial Adviser" is that if it is true, who are the less trusted? Was Bernie Maddoff one of them? 8)

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Honeybee said...

Hi anonymous,

Thank you for your nice comments.

Yes, I have listened to Brinker for many years as a great fan for over a decade.

It was only after the internet appeared and I became aware that he was not being totally honest with listeners that I became fascinated with keeping a record of what he covers up and spins.

I never cease to be amazed at how cleverly he cover things up and spins the truth.

But OTOH, for the most part, he's safe from discovery, especially with new listeners or subscribers.

1. He has the microphone, squelch button and call screeners.

2. During all the months of the 2008-2009 megabear, he seldom even mentioned the stock market or let callers ask him about it.

3. He has no message boards -- those were shut down many years ago when uncomfortable questions were being asked.

4. He doesn't allow libraries to carry Marketimer.

5. In each new issue of Marketimer, he never refers back to what was said in prior issues unless the changes are flattering to him. (Never once did Marketimer ever indicate that he had issued buy signals at higher prices than each subsequent buy level in 2008-2009.)

I am not a fan anymore, but I am "loyal" to presenting a traceable record of Brinker's history -- much of it in his own words.

I report, people can make up there own mind if he can do, or has done, what he infers he can do: time the stock market.

I realize that he and his son (both NOW known as Bob Brinker) are the internet elephants and I'm the gnat. He's tried to swat me several times.... LOL!



.

Honeybee said...

Kirk Lindstrom's blog comments about Brinker's Market Outlook and 5 Root Causes of a Bear Market


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Honeybee said...

Wow! This site is amazing -- a search engine where you can find out almost anything or any calculation.

First listen to the introduction.

Wolframalpha

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Honeybee said...

Jim Cramer wrote an article titled: "Why Obama is Bad For Stocks"


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Kirk said...

Honeybee wrote:

"Wow! This site is amazing -- a search engine where you can find out almost anything or any calculation."

Key is "almost." Some things remain highly classified secrets such as "how old is Bob Brinker?"

I know that info to calculate this was posted on the net at Bob Brinker Biography where we can conclude he is 69 or 70 now.

QED! :D

Anonymous said...

July 10, 2009, 1:41 a.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:

The Chartist now charts a downward path
Commentary: Top-performing adviser is back in cash, again

Someone's date is wrong?

Honeybee said...

About the Marketwatch article date. You're right. I will correct it..

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Honeybee said...

Yesterday, Bob Brinker briefly talked about this Federal Reserve Press Release. Here are the details:

"Release Date: June 23, 2010

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time.

Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period...."


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Honeybee said...

This is FABULOUS!

Seagull Steals From World's Laziest Cat


(35 unbelievable seconds -- don't miss it.)

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anonymous said...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Tesla Motors will offer up its shares to the public for the first time on Tuesday, testing investors' faith in a company that has proven it can make functional and stunning electric cars but has never had a profitable quarter.

PayPal founder Elon Musk's seven-year old auto company lost $55.7 million last year and $260.7 million since its inception. The company has performed so poorly from a financial standpoint that Musk recently said he lost his entire personal fortune on Tesla.

Anonymous said...

The cat represents the taxpaying public and the seagull represents Congress.

--Frankj

anonymous said...

Citi halted on 15% drop, shares recover to down 6%

Biggest Loser said...

CNBC just reported MSFT was down 20% YTD making it the second worst performing stock in the DOW for the first half of 2010.

Does Brinker recommend any other DOW stocks besides MSFT in his newsletter?

How many individual stocks does he recommend and how are they doing YTD vs the DOW or S&P500?

Honeybee said...

Biggest Loser asked: "Does Brinker recommend any other DOW stocks besides MSFT in his newsletter?

How many individual stocks does he recommend and how are they doing YTD vs the DOW or S&P500?


Hi BL,

As you may know, Brinker's individual stock recommendations are "off the books." It is just a short list of mostly ETF Indexes, including DIA, QQQQ, VTI and other household name ETFs.

You may also know that MSFT has been on that list for at least a decade -- along with VOD.

The only individual other stock that is on the list is SU which if you believe a word he says, you may want to buy. It's below his "attractive for purchase" price. LOL!

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Honeybee said...

I'm no mathematician, but I think my calculator is saying that the S&P 500 Index is now down over 14% from The April 26th high that Brinker is so fond of talking about.

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Kirk said...

Sorry for the crummy formatting ...

MSFT is down 23.5% YTD for 2nd to last.

Citigroup, if it was not tossed out of the DOW, would be in 2nd place at up 12.7% YTD.

Name Ticker YTD
Boeing Co BA 16.5 %
Caterpillar Inc CAT 6.8 %
McDonald's Corp MCD 6.4 %
E I du Pont de Nemours and Co DD 4.7 %
Kraft Foods Inc KFT 4.6 %
Walt Disney Co DIS 0.2 %
Travelers Companies Inc TRV (0.3%)
Procter & Gamble Co PG (0.5%)
Home Depot Inc HD (1.0%)
American Express Co AXP (1.1%)
Intel Corp INTC (3.0%)
Merck & Co Inc MRK (3.0%)
Bank of America Corp BAC (3.3%)
General Electric Co GE (4.3%)
International Business Machines Corp IBM (4.4%)
3M Co MMM (5.1%)
United Technologies Corp UTX (6.4%)
Johnson & Johnson JNJ (8.0%)
Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT (8.5%)
Cisco Systems Inc CSCO (9.7%)
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM (11.1%)
Chevron Corp CVX (11.2%)
Coca-Cola Co KO (11.7%)
AT&T Inc T (12.7%)
Verizon Communications Inc VZ (13.6%)
Hewlett-Packard Co HPQ (14.0%)
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM (16.0%)
Pfizer Inc PFE (21.5%)
Microsoft Corp MSFT (23.5%)
Alcoa Inc AA (35.9%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index $DJI (5.3%)
S&P 500 INDEX $INX (6.6%)
NASDAQ Composite Index $COMPX (5.9%)
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX $RUT.x (1.5%)

I'll try and make a better format and post this for the first half on my blog "Kirk's Market Thoughts" in July.

Anonymous said...

My darn tobacco stocks have been holding up to0 well...my clients pay quarterly so I'll have 6 figures to play with and have been thinking of working myself up to 4% each but I was hoping for better prices.

Love MO and PM, looking at Reynolds too.

For those looking to spread their risks my perennial favorite is Fortune Brands: FO, and interesting company to say the least.

McD is interesting also, but pricey. They are getting cagier about the number of franchise stores verses company owned(disclaimer: they have been a client of mine).

tfb

P.S. Honey, my Taylor raspberries started to ripen(I have been munching spring Heritage raspberries for the past few weeks). Taylor has the reputation of being the best tasting raspberry ever when fully ripe, and they are ambrosiac(yeah I know I invented a word there).

anonymous said...

Circuit Breaker Kicks In, Stopping Trades of Citigroup
By GRAHAM BOWLEY
Published: June 29, 2010

An experimental circuit breaker for stock markets that was put in place after last month’s so-called flash crash kicked in for the second time on Tuesday after an erroneous trade caused a sudden plunge in the price of Citigroup shares.

Trading in the shares of Citigroup, one of the most heavily traded stocks in the United States, was paused for five minutes at 1:03 p.m. after an over-the-counter trade of about 8,821 shares was posted at a price of $3.3174, or 12.7 percent lower than the $3.80 price of the previous trade.

The trade was later canceled, according to Nancy A Condon, a spokeswoman for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which regulates brokerage firms. Even so, Citigroup shares closed 5 percent lower for the day, at $3.79

Three years ago C was $52.00!

Sanford

Honeybee said...

Sanford,

I assume, and I'm sure that others agree, that you are saying that you think Bob Brinker recommended Citigroup a few years ago.


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Honeybee said...

TFB,

Raspberry "ambrosiac"...

I can only fantasiziac.... 8)

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Anonymous said...

Brinker is still recommending VOD and MSFT? What a maroon! Is the infomercial king still knocking gold too?

Honey, you might find this interesting:

"Slow and steady wins the race.
And I mean really slow — and really steady.

That is the inescapable conclusion that emerges from the Hulbert Financial Digest's three decades of tracking investment advisers' performance. Believe it or not, the adviser at the top of the rankings over those 30 years has been largely in cash for more than a decade."

Honeybee said...

TFB,

Now after our last email exchange, why do I suspect that you wrote that last winning the race post? As Sir Mr Pig sometimes sez: "ROAR"!

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Anonymous said...

Nope that was not my fluffy self. I do owe you a private e-mail though - can't you tell by IP?

tfb

Honeybee said...

TFB,

IP? That would take the mystery out of it. 8)

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Jim said...

The S&P 1040 support level finally broke down. The futures are pointing to a down open for Thursday and on Friday we face another possible disappointing jobs report. Looks like the market could be getting close to bear territory in the very near future. If Brinker were to miss a second consecutive bear market in such a short time frame after proclaiming on the air that it won't happen, then I'm afraid we may no longer hear Bob Brinker on Sunday either.

Anonymous said...

Well earned vacation day this Sunday?

LOL.

anonymous said...

When Elena Kagan is confirmed to the Supreme Court and she serves until she's 90 -- the age of her predecessor Justice John Paul Stevens -- she will become the longest serving justice in U.S. history.

Dan G said...

S&P just 3 1/2% away from an "official" bear market. I'll bet "Minor Correction Bob" is chewing his fingernails down to the quick about now! He just can't afford to miss yet another bear market call.

The long term market indicator has eroded a bit since last month, but it still bullish. But the short term outlook is sick and sicker! Support doesn't help and oversold keeps getting "oversolder".

Cash, though it sure isn't paying much these days, is looking better and better!

Honeybee said...

anonymous,

Concerning your comments about Kagan:

The spineless Republicans that are going to let her be confirmed without a fight should be voted out of office in November -- along with all the democrats.

Starting with that RINO Lindsay Graham...

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Honeybee said...

anonymous,

"Vacation"? It's a break for Brinker that Sunday is a holiday.

His perfect excuse for being absent.

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Honeybee said...

Dan,

Sure looks like history is repeating itself, doesn't it?

Will Brinker actually have the nerve to go under cover and pretend the stock market doesn't exist like he has always done before when he is blatantly wrong.

More important question: Can't the man EVER get ANYTHING right?

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Honeybee said...

Note to all anonymous':

It sure would be nice for other readers if you would sign your posts with something to differentiate yourself. Thanks... 8)

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Bluce said...

Aren't we STILL IN A BEAR until the market rises above the the high achieved in the fall of '07?

What is the official definition of when a bear market is over?

Honeybee said...

Jim said: "If Brinker were to miss a second consecutive bear market in such a short time frame after proclaiming on the air that it won't happen, then I'm afraid we may no longer hear Bob Brinker on Sunday either."


Hi Jim,

Your comments are always appreciated because you seem to have a finger on the pulse of Brinkerdom.

So you are fear that Brinker may end Moneytalk in defeat after all these many years?

I find that very sad and my heart actually goes out to him today and how he must be feeling.

.

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anonymous said...

"Aren't we STILL IN A BEAR until the market rises above the the high achieved in the fall of '07?"
------------------------------
Aren't we still in a ten year bear market? The market has gone nowhere for ten years now.

FVP

Anonymous said...

The spineless Republicans that are going to let her be confirmed without a fight should be voted out of office in November -- along with all the democrats.

Starting with that RINO Lindsay Graham...


Exactly. I left the Republican party when they ran Dole and never looked back. The women in the Republican party are the only one's with moxie.

And this is why the Republicans may not gain as they think they will. they are weak. Look at the weak mayonnaise and cucumber sandwich candidates they are lining up for a Presidential bid.

They should really look harder at Palin, she is learning and has the balls the men of the GOP locked away in mantle boxes decades ago.

Kagan is a disgrace and so far from the mainstream it is astounding. A woman, never married, no child raising experience, which is the human norm on the Supreme Court bringing her academic only experience and persona life devoid of relevant experience to the court for what purpose?

Anonymous said...

the preceding long post about kagan was by tfb

Honeybee said...

TFB,

You betcha. 8)

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Anonymous said...

According to the Market Ticker, all indices are down 20% from 1/1/10. We are now in a bear market.

Way to go Bobbie!

Personally, I think that Bobbie is doing his best to croon/pump the market as he sells into it. Only thing that makes any sense.

Honeybee said...

Regarding the bear market questions from FVP and Bluce:

Even though he has flip-flopped on this subject several times, Brinker's current take is that the stock market is in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market.

According to the June issue of Marketimer, Brinker believes the current cyclical bull market "remains intact" and has a target in the "1275 to 1325 range."

Please remember that I only report, that doesn't mean I agree -- or disagree. 8)

.

Anonymous said...

"Kagan is a disgrace and so far from the mainstream it is astounding. A woman, never married, no child raising experience, which is the human norm on the Supreme Court bringing her academic only experience and persona life devoid of relevant experience to the court for what purpose? "

This is changing. The new Pew Research Center report found the percentage of women ages 40 and older who do not have children has doubled to nearly 20% since the 1970s.

http://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/758/rising-share-women-have-no-children-childlessness

"Childlessness is most common among highly educated women. "

BTW, would you say a man without children is also a disgrace?

Honeybee said...

Bluce,

Your question about when is a bear market over is a good one. Hope we can get some answers for you...

.

Honeybee said...

Anonymous,

Down 20% from 1/1/10? YIKES!

Let's see where we close and then count Brinker's chips. 8)


As for Brinker pumping the market to sell it: Don't know on this one, but I know he did it 11-12 years ago with UTEK. Only back then he did it with an "anonymous" alias on the internet.

He can't do it anonymously anymore since they made that sort of thing illegal.

It isn't illegal for him to express opinions, but it would sure be immoral, wouldn't it?

.

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Bluce said...

Honey said: "Your question about when is a bear market over is a good one. Hope we can get some answers for you..."

Thanks! Of course I'm railing against Li'L Bobby, who thinks the stock market itself began in March 2009. Or that's what he'd like new listeners to believe, and that he correctly called '09 as being an up year, making him a timing genius.

Dan G said...

There are several answers to when a bear becomes a bull market.

The Dow Theory says a bear market turn to a bull market when both the Industrials and the Transports make higher highs and lower lows. That is, two up thrusts of intermediate length, the second one exceeding the first peak on a closing basis. For example, the Industrials gave a bull signal on 7/20/09 when they passed the previous intermediate high of 8799 occurring on 6/10/09. I believe the Dow Jones Transports confirmed by doing the same 3 days later. That confirmed a bull market was in progress.

Both averages must do this before the trend is considered changed.

That's the definition I would use. Others may have different ones based on percentage move upwards, or other criteria.

Anonymous said...

This is changing. The new Pew Research Center report found the percentage of women ages 40 and older who do not have children has doubled to nearly 20% since the 1970s.

Okay that is a cute number. So what percentage of the population is women...lets go with 50% (yeah I know that is off a bit, but it keeps the math easy) America is graying but Latinas are on the rise and will alter those numbers in short order so let’s just say 50% of the women are effectively over 40. So 50% of 50% is 25% and now you say 20 percent of that 25%...yielding about 5% of the population.

So Kagan has a life experience that is radically different than approximately 95% of the population and that difference transcends races, and what is more it disproportionally effects minorities negatively as minority women tend to have more children. Thus the supreme court nominee cannot even relate to minorities of her own gender.

The disgrace mentioned was not just that she is barren as a woman, but the total life experience package deficit.

As to your comment about men, my advice to all men is that marriage is an experience and until you marry and have children that you raise in a marriage you will never know the full range of emotions and experiences available to a sentient being.

I do not say the experience will necessarily make you happier or improve your life, but I shall say with confidence you will never experience the full panorama of what it is to be human until you have raised a family.

tfb

Dan G said...

BTW, speaking of Dow Theory, just in case anyone is interested, by most interpretations of Dow Theory (including mine), a bear market was signaled yesterday when both Industrials and Transports closed below previous reaction lows.

So if you believe in this age-old theory, you may want to consider holding off on purchases and lightening up on any rallies. Just a thought, not a suggestion.

anonymous said...

"So Kagan has a life experience that is radically different than approximately 95% of the population..."

So what? Being Jewish also puts her in a radically different minority too. Shall we scratch all Jewish nominees?

And she's not a veteran, black person, or even a man. She's in the distinct minority in all cases. Should that preclude her nomination too?

ANY kind of a litmus test for court justices is a very slippery slope to be avoided.

She WILL make a fine addition and WILL be on the court for the rest of her long life. And probably everybody here too.

Feinblatz

Honeybee said...

Dan,

The S&P has corrected more than 15% now and Bob Brinker is bullish and has said to buy on weakness.

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jeffchristie said...

Anonymous said:

"When Elena Kagan is confirmed to the Supreme Court and she serves until she's 90 -- the age of her predecessor Justice John Paul Stevens -- she will become the longest serving justice in U.S. history."

Your SPECULATION seems to be based on the fact that she will be 50 years old when sworn in. I seem to remember that Chief Justice John Roberts was also 50 years of age when he was sworn in back in 2005. I have no idea as to which of these two will spend the longest amount of time on this court.

Dan G said...

"Bob Brinker is bullish and has said to buy on weakness."

BUY? With WHAT? I thought he and his disciples were still 100% invested...since March 2003.

In any case, he sure has been getting lots of "weakness" to buy on in case he or any followers who still have jobs have some extra money. So he must be a happy camper!

Anonymous said...

In any case, he sure has been getting lots of "weakness" to buy on in case he or any followers who still have jobs have some extra money. So he must be a happy camper!

Nope. If had followers they would have taken his advice and went back to school for IT degrees just in time for the whole sale slaughter of IT workers, so they have no jobs and no money. Ya see how well that advice worked for Da Brink's kid.

I have two relatives that graduated with tech degrees from Devry that never were able to even get an entry level IT job interview much less a job.

Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on this Cramer guy?

Gang, so a few months ago everyone's favorite rodent started reading market comments by this Jim Cramer chap when they appeared as links on the web site I get stock quotes from.

Interesting chap, but i wonder is he, uh a bit unstable? I have never, ever seen someone who vasicalltes so much on the market. On Wed he is looking for a bullish break out, and on Thursday he is throwing in the towel. It is like watching someone with manic depressive episodes in a compressed time frame. Any thoughts? I get the idea he is suppose to be someone, but being kind of reclusive, keep my own council type without a TV set so occasionally I don't learn about these celebrity types.

I obviously Googled, but the info says nothings about his vacillations nor allude to it. If I was that unstable in front of my clients I know I would be out of work.

Ever curious,

The adorable little rodent,: tfb

Anonymous said...

jeffchristie said...


"Your SPECULATION seems to be based on the fact that she (Kagen) will be 50 years old when sworn in. I seem to remember that Chief Justice John Roberts was also 50 years of age when he was sworn in back in 2005. I have no idea as to which of these two will spend the longest amount of time on this court."


I think you and anonymous are leaving someone out. There is a person who is currently sitting on the court for the last 19 years who was only 43 years old when he was sworn in. Clarence Thomas was added to the court in 1991 at age 43.

Dan G said...

"I have two relatives that graduated with tech degrees from Devry that never were able to even get an entry level IT job interview much less a job."

Now that is really sad! DeVry is an outstanding technical school. I've worked with their graduates and they really were top rate.

It's the recession, which can't last forever. I hope they don't give up. If they just hang in there, I'm sure things will work out. DeVry is tops. Expensive, though!

Anonymous said...

Honey,

More from Market-Ticker:

"The SPX, NDX, and Russell are all down monstrously from their highs, with the S&P 500 now back to levels seen the first week of September - of 2009.

The Dow and Transports both broke their significant lows, confirming a Dow Theory SELL signal.

We are now officially (back) in a Bear Market.

A Bear Market that virtually every so-called "expert" and a whole host of prognosticators claimed couldn't and wouldn't happen because "Bull Markets last, on average, 42 months."

The problem with their claim is that we weren't in a Bull Market.

We are still in the previous Bear Market which began in 2007.

The Government conspired with the banks and mainstream media to suck you into believing in a faux "Pax Americana" recovery that in point of fact never really happened.

You've lost 36% of the "gains" - more than a third - you had off the March 2009 lows. You are now down 30% from the highs - still. Cramer's "Getting Back To Even" has now been exposed as a complete load of crap - the correct thing to do for long-term investors was to get the hell out of the market in late 2007 or early 2008 and stay the hell out."

Anonymous said...

Concerning the down 20%.

Brinker will keep using the April closing numbers. Even thou he has given back all of 2010 and 5% of 2009.

Honeybee said...

As we go through 2010, we should be aware of what's coming and take defensive action -- if possible --such as taking capital gains, etc.:


"In just six months, the largest tax hikes in the history of America will take effect. They will hit families and small businesses in three great waves on January 1, 2011:

First Wave: Expiration of 2001 and 2003 Tax Relief

In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors, small business owners, and families. These will all expire on January 1, 2011:

Personal income tax rates will rise. The top income tax rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which two-thirds of small business profits are taxed). The lowest rate will rise from 10 to 15 percent. All the rates in between will also rise. Itemized deductions and personal exemptions will again phase out, which has the same mathematical effect as higher marginal tax rates. The full list of marginal rate hikes is below:

- The 10% bracket rises to an expanded 15%
- The 25% bracket rises to 28%
- The 28% bracket rises to 31%
- The 33% bracket rises to 36%
- The 35% bracket rises to 39.6%

Higher taxes on marriage and family. The “marriage penalty” (narrower tax brackets for married couples) will return from the first dollar of income. The child tax credit will be cut in half from $1000 to $500 per child. The standard deduction will no longer be doubled for married couples relative to the single level. The dependent care and adoption tax credits will be cut.

The return of the Death Tax. This year, there is no death tax. For those dying on or after January 1 2011, there is a 55 percent top death tax rate on estates over $1 million. A person leaving behind two homes and a retirement account could easily pass along a death tax bill to their loved ones.

Higher tax rates on savers and investors. The capital gains tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 20 percent in 2011. The dividends tax will rise from 15 percent this year to 39.6 percent in 2011. These rates will rise another 3.8 percent in 2013.

Second Wave: Obamacare

There are over twenty new or higher taxes in Obamacare. Several will first go into effect on January 1, 2011. They include:

The “Medicine Cabinet Tax” Thanks to Obamacare, Americans will no longer be able to use health savings account (HSA), flexible spending account (FSA), or health reimbursement (HRA) pre-tax dollars to purchase non-prescription, over-the-counter medicines (except insulin).

The “Special Needs Kids Tax” This provision of Obamacare imposes a cap on flexible spending accounts (FSAs) of $2500 (Currently, there is no federal government limit). There is one group of FSA owners for whom this new cap will be particularly cruel and onerous: parents of special needs children. There are thousands of families with special needs children in the United States, and many of them use FSAs to pay for special needs education. Tuition rates at one leading school that teaches special needs children in Washington, D.C. (National Child Research Center) can easily exceed $14,000 per year. Under tax rules, FSA dollars can be used to pay for this type of special needs education.

The HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike. This provision of Obamacare increases the additional tax on non-medical early withdrawals from an HSA from 10 to 20 percent, disadvantaging them relative to IRAs and other tax-advantaged accounts, which remain at 10 percent.


[Continued next post]
.

Honeybee said...

Tax increases continued:

Third Wave: The Alternative Minimum Tax and Employer Tax Hikes

When Americans prepare to file their tax returns in January of 2011, they’ll be in for a nasty surprise—the AMT won’t be held harmless, and many tax relief provisions will have expired. The major items include:

The AMT will ensnare over 28 million families, up from 4 million last year. According to the left-leaning Tax Policy Center, Congress’ failure to index the AMT will lead to an explosion of AMT taxpaying families—rising from 4 million last year to 28.5 million. These families will have to calculate their tax burdens twice, and pay taxes at the higher level. The AMT was created in 1969 to ensnare a handful of taxpayers.

Small business expensing will be slashed and 50% expensing will disappear. Small businesses can normally expense (rather than slowly-deduct, or “depreciate”) equipment purchases up to $250,000. This will be cut all the way down to $25,000. Larger businesses can expense half of their purchases of equipment. In January of 2011, all of it will have to be “depreciated.”

Taxes will be raised on all types of businesses. There are literally scores of tax hikes on business that will take place. The biggest is the loss of the “research and experimentation tax credit,” but there are many, many others. Combining high marginal tax rates with the loss of this tax relief will cost jobs.

Tax Benefits for Education and Teaching Reduced. The deduction for tuition and fees will not be available. Tax credits for education will be limited. Teachers will no longer be able to deduct classroom expenses. Coverdell Education Savings Accounts will be cut. Employer-provided educational assistance is curtailed. The student loan interest deduction will be disallowed for hundreds of thousands of families.

Charitable Contributions from IRAs no longer allowed. Under current law, a retired person with an IRA can contribute up to $100,000 per year directly to a charity from their IRA. This contribution also counts toward an annual “required minimum distribution.” This ability will no longer be there.


LINK

.

Anonymous said...

"So Kagan has a life experience that is radically different than approximately 95% of the population..."

So what? Being Jewish also puts her in a radically different minority too. Shall we scratch all Jewish nominees?

And she's not a veteran, black person, or even a man. She's in the distinct minority in all cases. Should that preclude her nomination too?

ANY kind of a litmus test for court justices is a very slippery slope to be avoided.


Either you are incapable of grasping the issue or you are being ingenious. There are certain life experiences that transcend race, creed, and culture. Family rearing is one of them. Kagan could at least share a world view with the a majority of people if she had that experience, but her insulation from the real world via her work in Government and Academia, her isolation form the human condition by not being a family woman means she really has little life experience that is applicable even to a sliver of society.

Given she wished to interpret the Constitution in light of modern society one would think she would at least have shared common experiences with the societal views she purports to champion, but she does not.

tfb

Anonymous said...


Now that is really sad! DeVry is an outstanding technical school. I've worked with their graduates and they really were top rate.

It's the recession, which can't last forever. I hope they don't give up. If they just hang in there, I'm sure things will work out. DeVry is tops. Expensive, though!


It hit the skids maybe 8 years ago. The two I reference graduated a while back with their IT degrees and never got to use them. I know one looked for around 4 years, trying to use that degree. After a year he took bartending classes and worked as a bartender while he looked, and then ended up working at trader Joe's and continued looking. He then became an asst mgr and when they offered him his own store he finally cashed in his IT chips never having even secured an interview. Good grades, and internship in IT but no job. It is just sad.

The other is similar story only he graduated 2 years after the first and gave up after about 2 years and now is a trucker. Both are happy though, but unhappy as they wasted a lot of time and money in a tech training school that does not open up other doors. Apparently Devry grades are not viewed well in terms of mgmt skills etc.

Since I am a business consultant I have made inquiries out of curiosity and I will confirm few large companies consider Devry grads as mgmt track candidates.

Nothing wrong with being a tech and staying there, the problem comes in if you can't land a job it seems you have limited latitude.

All the best,

tfb

Kirk said...

I was trying to stay out of this... since it usually gets me in trouble but...

I find this sort of "litmus test" offensive.

"Either you are incapable of grasping the issue or you are being ingenious. There are certain life experiences that transcend race, creed, and culture. Family rearing is one of them. Kagan could at least share a world view with the a majority of people if she had that experience, but her insulation from the real world via her work in Government and Academia, her isolation form the human condition by not being a family woman means she really has little life experience that is applicable even to a sliver of society."

Being able to have children is something "humans" share with most life forms. Are you arguing rabbits and dogs that are good at breeding with anyone (and somethings anything) or a swan that mates for life are better choices for the Supreme Court since they "share common experience" with you rather than Kagan?

Well, I believe a "good many" marriages are a result of acting like rabbits where the woman gets pregnant and they "do the right thing" and marry. 65% of marriages, last I heard, end in divorce which is TERRIBLE for kids. Kagan, OTOH, was a teacher so she helped children rather than the 6large number of "families" that took the selfish way out and got a divorce because the parents could not continue to do the right thing for their kids... (There are exceptions where divorce is good such as abuse, addictions, etc... )

It seems rather "odd" to argue that someone who ELECTS to not have children so she can serve society or her own ambition is a poor choice to interpret the US Constitution.

You are entitled to your opinions but on this I respectfully disagree. Note I am not saying if Kagen is a good or bad choice. I am only saying I don't agree with your litmus test. Maybe if you had loved a woman who could not have children then you might think as I do. Or maybe you have never done "big brother" or "Big Sister" type work like I have where I've seen some of hurt bad parenting causes... Think about it at least.

Kirk said...

BTW, Mr. Fluffy Bunny. Would you ALSO say raising your children would make one a better senator to make the laws the Supreme Court interprets than a woman who did not have and raise her own children?

Or does your view only apply to interpreting the laws of the land?

Anonymous said...

Kirk, perhaps, you missed the point. It is not a litmus test, it is part of an overall package. Read the thread. Someone tried to justify her appointment by suggesting Kagan's lifestyle resembled society. That is what I am disputing.

I think if you are liberal that is going to try and interpret the Constitution in a modern context, which is exactly what Kagan will do, then you sould at least live the life of the people you are purporting to pervert the Constitution for.

Let me try it this was, I am all for an originalist on the court, I believe that is the correct position and I am against a modern interpretation type which is what Kagan is. That being stated, if you are going to be a modern interpretation type I think your life should at least reflect that of the society as a whole that you live in. Kagan's does not.

She is a political pawn being promoted to promote an agenda that I do not believe will serve the general populace (which is her purported position) nor preserve the integrity of our Constitution.

I hope that is clear.

Anonymous said...

Kirk:

The purpose of a Senator is to represent the rights of the State against encroachment by the Federal Government. A Senator does not represent the people, A Senator represents the State's interest - period.

As such I think the question is irrelevant.

However I think to an extent it is relevant to a member of the House, especially since we have unfortunate capped the number of members to the House.

tfb

Anonymous said...

Kirk:

You wrote:

Or maybe you have never done "big brother" or "Big Sister" type work like I have where I've seen some of hurt bad parenting causes... Think about it at least.

My reply:

I am father, and I also have been affiliated with an orphanage and teach youth classes for children at the township and have for decades.

So I have similar experience in terms of working with other's children. I can also tell you, though my heart bleeds for these children, an I care for them deeply, it is different than when you have your own - it really is.

It is something you have to experience to understand. But I know when I am with the counselors at night socializing after working with the children the topic often comes up.

In regard to seeing bad parenting, yes I agree it does exist. But I find it irrelevant to the perspective I advanced. Once gain it was not a litmus test as much as a vertical in an overall package.

In summary I don't see how you can advance the idea that you will interpret the Constitution in modern light when you are divorced from the common experiences of modern society.

tfb

Pig said...

Mayor Daley=1
Supreme Court =0

We don't need no stinkin Supreme Court in Chicago........

City Council passes Daley gun restrictions 45-0

This is Chicago.......we do what we want to do, regardless of the law.

OOPS..........Is President Obama from Chicago................OOPS!

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/clout_st/2010/07/city-council-passes-daley-gun-restrictions-450.html

Honeybee said...

Mr. Sir Pig,

I can't believe my eyes. Here's your link:

Don't Need No Stinkin' Supreme Court in Chicago

.

Kirk said...

I feel for you Mr. Pig in the windy city...

This is clearly unconstitutional:

"*Applicants would need a Chicago firearm permit, costing $100 every three years, as well as an Illinois firearm owner's ID card. They would be required to register all their guns with the city, at a cost of $15 per gun every three years."

Can you imagine the outcry from Chicago if you had to pay $100 every three years plus $15 every time you wanted to vote?


Mr Bunny, what is clear to me is you don't like Mrs Kagen's politics and have arrived at a rather convoluted excuse similar to how the liberals tried to discredit President Bush's appointments to the highest court. For any law to take effect, the Senate must pass what the house passes it it is back to the drawing board. Your argument seems to say Boxer is better than Fiorina in the Senate because she has her own brood of kids. I much prefer Fiorina over Boxer and hope your litmus test is not used.

Anonymous said...

On Daley's gun control. One thing people forget is that we should be thankful we have firearms so gang members have a method of killing each other that is fairly discriminate. It is horrible that on occasion innocents suffer, horrible indeed (I lost a student his way once). But if you look how things are settled where there are not firearms you may understand the point. In absence of firearms disputes are often carried out using indiscriminate killers such as improvised munitions and fire.

It is a sad commentary but I would rather have gangbangers shooting at each other and the occasional innocent by-stander than having them bombing restaurant or apartment buildings in the hope they can get their target.

Ironically yesterday in Chicago at the Taste a man was stabbed. Where there is a will there is a way. And mass poisonings, gassing, munitions and fire are not ways I wish to see people retaliating against each other.

We live in sad times...

tfb

Kirk said...

Mr Bunny (tfb)

I admire all you've done for kids. Of course it is different helping others than your own. My observation is it is EASIER to tell them what they need to hear partly because they are not our own. For example, relating mistakes we've made in life they can learn from.

As for Kagen:

"In summary I don't see how you can advance the idea that you will interpret the Constitution in modern light when you are divorced from the common experiences of modern society."

I see it as political noise. Truths are:

She is probably qualified.

President Obama is president which comes with the perks of selecting supreme court justices.

It doesn't matter if she believes as you or I about any issues. It only mattered to president Obama.

If she keeps her mouth shut and says as little as possible, she will probably be confirmed as were others the Liberals didn't like but couldn't block when they were not in power.

I wish the country could spend less time on petty bickering and more time on the big issues.

Dan G said...

I watched some of the confirmation hearings. Only two kinds of questions were thrown at Ms Kagen: Softballs from Democrats, and beanballs from Republicans. And she was batting without a helmet!

She wouldn't be my choice, but I'm not President...yet! I don't think the country will collapse (any further than it already has) if she's confirmed. It will be liberal replacing liberal.

Now the NEXT appoinment will be more critical if it's a conservative stepping down. That's likely to be a conservative replaced by a liberal. That could get nasty!

Lisa said...

Kirk: This is clearly unconstitutional:

"*Applicants would need a Chicago firearm permit, costing $100 every three years, as well as an Illinois firearm owner's ID card. They would be required to register all their guns with the city, at a cost of $15 per gun every three years."

Maybe it's constitutional maybe not, that's what the Supreme Court is for.

But until, or even if, it ever gets that far, it's the law in Chicago and you have to obey it.

It will be interesting to see how Justice Kagan votes on this one if it ever comes up.

Anonymous said...

Mr Bunny, what is clear to me is you don't like Mrs Kagen's politics and have arrived at a rather convoluted excuse similar to how the liberals tried to discredit President Bush's appointments to the highest court. For any law to take effect, the Senate must pass what the house passes it it is back to the drawing board. Your argument seems to say Boxer is better than Fiorina in the Senate because she has her own brood of kids. I much prefer Fiorina over Boxer and hope your litmus test is not used.

Not even close Kirk, I was upfront about my preference but also very honest in my appraisal of her.

You miss my motive. It is similar to my motive about Da Brink, people deserve to hear the truth. But just like with Da Brink people will ignore the truth.

Kagan is being positioned as a populist appointee when she cannot even comprehend the populist because she has been insulated from the lifestyle of the populist.

It is not convoluted to state the obvious.

Frankly I could care less if she is leftist populace, a socialist tool, or a commie sympathizer - makes not difference to me as I am in a different camp anyways.

My point is honesty is what is needed. This woman is no more able to voice the concerns of the people than Obama is or George Bush (either one) was able to.

But when I hear my lib acquaintances talking about Kagan they think they have their champion at hand; they do not. They have an elitist theoretician at hand who thinks she knows better than those little uneducated, ignorant, ethnocentric masses.

Like I said no skin off my nose, I know an enemy when I see one. But I am not the one thinking I am getting something I am not.

tfb

Lisa said...

"Kagan is being positioned as a populist appointee when she cannot even comprehend the populist because she has been insulated from the lifestyle of the populist."

That is a personal opinion. Kagan is not being positioned as ANYTHING other than a well qualified nominee for the court.

The Bunny's entire position is summed up when he says"...I know an enemy when I see one..."

He is using her lack of married motherhood as a code attack on her sexuality.

Honeybee said...

"Lisa"

Lest you think you are fooling me, I am well aware of who you are -- and you are no "lisa."

However, let's get one thing straight: Everything you wrote is OPINION, just as you accused TFB of writing.

You've made it clear where you are coming from on this subject.

In my opinion, the sooner this country is destroyed by Constitution-hating, political radicals, the happier you will be. That is why you are rooting for Obama's leftist, destroy-the military, radical nominee.

I have a few more opinions about you, but no need to state them since you do such a good job of revealing yourself.

.

Anonymous said...

The Bunny's entire position is summed up when he says"...I know an enemy when I see one..."

He is using her lack of married motherhood as a code attack on her sexuality.


Wow, now that is either psychotic, manipulative, or delusional.

It is not an attack on her sexuality it is a statement of fact that she has not gone through the natural progression of one of life's experiences that transcends race, creed, and color.

And I quite agree that Kagan is fully qualified to interpret the Constitution through the eyes of the very narrow segment of the population she represents, which would be: childless, never married, Ivy league graduate elitists who are socialist sympathizers. I do think she is fully capable of representing that narrow segment of the population as that is the life she has lead. She is fully qualified for that.

But don't worry she will be confirmed and we will have another enemy of liberty ascending to a position of presumptive authority.

Dan G said...

Lest you think you are fooling me, I am well aware of who you are -- and you are no "lisa."

Uh-oh, did "Lisa" get caught being a Lie-sa? It's not nice to fool Mother Bee Lie-sa! There is no quicker way to get stung!

Honeybee said...

Now Dan, you know my buzz is worse than my sting. LOL!

Hope you have a great 4th....Come on up to see the fireworks here in my town. They're great.

Something about the sound that reverberates through and around the mountains that inspires patriotism.

.

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