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Sunday, June 27, 2010

June 27, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today. Bob Brinker's Moneytalk has been canceled on Saturdays -- it is only broadcast on Sundays.

STOCK MARKET: Brinker recited the closing stock market numbers and pointed out that the S&P 500 Index is now 1077, just 11 1/2% below its April 23rd closing high.

June 6, 2010 Moneytalk, Bob Brinker said:
"Suffice to say this. I think that we're in a correction. I think that when all is said and done, it will amount to less than 20% on a closing basis from the 1217.....April 23rd high....So far, we're at 12 1/2%.....I've seen some things develop on the sentiment side that are definitely going in the right direction. There are some other things that I'd like to see fall in place and sometimes it takes some time for these things to fall in place.....We're in a dollar-cost-average mode at this juncture.....

......To answer your question very specifically, I think the market is driven by earnings. And I think corporate earnings are looking very, very good in 2010. And I think the outlook for 2011 is encouraging as we look forward.....I actually think when correction runs out of gas -- and I believe it will run out of gas, that we're going to see a market that is not only going back to the 1217 level of late April, but will rise above that level quite significantly, frankly. And I think those that go with that market are going to be happy campers....I can't join those who think it just gets worse and worse from here."

[Honey EC: Brinker's stock market roller-coaster ride rivals the Giant Dipper at the Santa Cruz Boardwalk. I Hope you have been buckled up for the last seven years that Brinker has had his followers and Model Portfolios fully invested for this ride. In my opinion, the ride will continue forever. I do not believe that Brinker will ever again issue a "sell signal" to raise cash. I have discussed the reasons why I think that, but would be happy to answer any questions about how I arrived at that conclusion.

However, Brinker has again begun to dangle that rubbery maybe-there-will-be-a-buy-signal carrot. No matter that it would be pointless if you are currently all-in and dollar-cost-averaging, as he advises -- unless you won a lottery or Aunt Tillie left you a bundle.
] 8)

* Here we go....All Aboard!
Bob Brinker returned 65% cash reserves (not counting what was already invested in his QQQQ trade of 2000-2001) to fully invested March, 2003, when the S&P 500 Index was at 811.

* Going up:
The S&P 500 Index all-time-high was 1565 on October 9, 2007.

* Going down: [Honey sez, Yeeeooowww! 8)]
The S&P 500 Index bear market low was 677 on March 9, 2009.

* Going up:
The S&P 500 Index cyclical bull market high was 1217 on April 23, 2010.

* Going down:
[So far] The S&P 500 Index maximum "cyclical bull market" correction number is 12 1/2% -- according to Bob Brinker.

According to the latest Hulbert Financial Digest, Bob Brinker is no longer one of the "Top 5 Performers" during the past 5, 10, or 15 years of all the newsletters that Mark Hulbert ranks.

While Bob Brinker steadfastly stays bullish, Mark Hulbert has written a Marketwatch article (July 10, 2009) saying that his top-performing adviser is now back in cash.

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Dan Sullivan has thrown in the towel on the stock market's four-month-old rally.

That's bad news, since Sullivan is not just any adviser.

His stock newsletter, entitled The Chartist, is in first place for stock market timing over the last three decades among those newsletters the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over this period. And though his mutual-fund newsletter -- The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter -- hasn't been published for all three of those decades, it also is one of the top performers over the years it has existed.

So the bull market has lost a formidable ally......" Read more

Last month, Brinker itemized what he believes are the "5 root causes of a bear market" and stated that there were none of them visible at the present time (these are all available in my May 22nd Summary) [LINK] and Brinker added this: "....So from my point of view, I think it's a correction. I don't think we are going into a bear market, defined as a decline of more than 20% of the S&P 500 Index. And I also believe that when the correction is over, we are going to see new recovery highs in the S&P 500 Index. That's what I think. I'm Bob Brinker."

INTEREST RATES: No changes....Fed indicated that interest rates will remain low for an "extended period of time."

MAY DEFICIT: $136Billion....Revenue (mostly tax income) of $147Billion collected in May. Outgo at $283Billion in May -- almost two dollars going out for every one coming in.

PRESIDENT IS EMBARRASSMENT TO THE UNITED STATES: Bob Brinker said: "Until someone in Washington takes the bull by the horns, or until the voters make enough changes in Washington to change the policy, we are stuck with this government......One good thing has happened on the global stage....There are some leaders out there who are out there right now talking about getting their budget deficits down in their particular countries.....

......Let me mention three of these to you.....One of them would be the Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel. I have a lot of respect for her, she's very much out front on this issue.....David Cameron, the new Prime Minister of Great Britain, very much out front on this issue. And third and not least, Nicholas Sarkozy, the President of France.....These are three European leaders out there going in the right directions.....

......At this G-20 Summit this weekend, our president is out there trying to tell these people to spend more money. It's ludicrous. It's an embarrassment! (caller interjected: "It's humiliating.") I think we have to give kudos to those three leaders for trying to get a hold on spending instead of going on this runaway freight train spending spree that the United States continues on as we speak.....I'm Bob Brinker. This is America's money program."

Brinker's guest speaker today was William Isaac:

This picture shows the exact opposite of TFB's careful gardening and wrapped apples. This tree is totally neglected -- no water, no pruning, no fertilizer. But it is so determined to live that it grows from many feet below my deck on the side of the hill and hangs over and produces fruit every year. If you look closely, you will see it is loaded with small green apples. The wild life usually enjoys them long before they are sweet enough for me. I took this picture this afternoon:


Sunday, June 20, 2010

June 20, 2010 Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

June 20, 2010...Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today.


"If you are a long-term listener to our broadcast, you know that I have never believed that rising energy prices alone would cause inflation. I've never believed that and the latest CONSUMER PRICE INDEX report proves that that's true.....

......Listen to these number. In the past twelve months, year-over-year, the rate of inflation for gasoline, fuel oil and energy commodities is 27%. That's right......27% in one year! So where is the all-inclusive index -- 2.0 year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, which tend to be a lot more volatile than other sectors, the core rate of inflation over the past year is 0.9%......That's one of the lowest core inflation rates in recorded history.....

.....And if you take a look at the last quarter, it's even better than that. The CPI in the last quarter has risen at an annual rate of less than 1%, including all items. And the Core Index in the past quarter has risen at an annual only 4/10th of 1%. That is why I say, I do not believe that you could be getting inflation news any better than that."

STOCK MARKET: Brinker said:
"The stock market is trading 8% below its April year-to-date high. Its April recovery high to date, which was 1217 close on the S&P. It's currently trading at 1117......The Dow is transacting at 10,450. The Nasdaq at 2310. So that's what's going on in the financial markets....."

[Honey EC: Brinker's model portfolios and his followers have ridden the market up and down since March 2003. He likes to infer that he is going to make some big whiz-bang market-timing call, but I do not believe he will ever again advise raising cash in preparation of a market decline.

Why would he? He never raised cash in 2008-2009 megabear. He simply called it an unpredictable "exogenous event" and moved on to a new cyclical/secular market-timing plan when the market finally turned. He has his bases well-covered for all pullbacks. He claims 10% can happen anytime and is to be expected. Up to 20% is simply "in the teens." And he mostly just ignores the 20%+ declines. LOL!]

INTEREST RATES: Brinker said:
"The interest rate picture remain very, very low as there is simply no reason whatsoever at this time for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates."

[Brinker paraphrase and quotes]

* It's questionable whether or not BP will survive.

* If BP gets off with paying out only $20Billion, they are "lucky."

* BP's dividend payouts have been canceled.

* BP is doing the best it can to accomplish the "diabolical task" of taking down the Gulf of Mexico.

* Oil will continue to spill for at least several more weeks or longer -- worst case scenario, it takes out the Gulf and goes on up the East Coast.

* BP "yacht-master" CEO-Hayward appeared before Congressional panel and looked like a "deer in the headlights," while "basically stonewalling the panel members."

* Charlie Maxwell blamed BP for the debacle when he was a guest on Moneytalk last month. Brinker said: "But there are also others to blame besides BP......"the mineral and management service which is under congressional oversight in Washington for contributing to this fiasco. It's obvious that they failed to provide the regulation, supervision and follow-up that is their task."

* BP's history is sorry when it comes to accidents -- including Prudoe Bay and the disaster at Texas City that took many lives.

* It's sad that this has to smear Exxon-Mobil or Conoco-Phillips, or any other oil company that is doing the right thing. Brinker said: "And they are smeared by this, look at the moratorium on drilling. That affects everybody. That doesn't just affect BP.....So the question is, is BP a disgrace to the oil industry and a menace to society? You be the judge.....I nearly died this week when one member of Congress apologized to the CEO of BP for the fact they're being held accountable for destroying the Gulf of Mexico. I couldn't believe it, so I checked up and I saw the guy was an oil guy......

......While they work on the problem, we have to import even more oil from Canada and other big oil exporters into the United States. We have no choice. The US economy runs about 40% on the use of oil every day. That's how heavily we rely on petroleum. We have a transportation system in the United States that essentially runs on petroleum based products. We've ignored the opportunity to expand our nuclear power over the last 30 years -- being held hostage by special interests with an agenda.....

......And of course, we've ignored the shot across the bow, the act of war in 1974 by the royal family of Saudi Arabia against the United States of America. That one was the oil embargo against the US. So pardon me if I don't carry a brief for the royal family.....We have a rogue oil company on the loose here, and they have done untold damage to the Gulf of Mexico."

Caller Charlene from Ann Arbor
suggested to Brinker that instead of just beating up on BP, the Federal Government should have gone out there on day-one and helped to make sure the oil was contained. [Honey EC: Brinker began repeatedly interrupting and yelling over Charlene which made it very difficult to hear what she was trying to say.] Brinker demanded that she tell him what she would have done to halt the leaks if she had been the Federal Government on day one....

..... Charlene replied: "Well, they had skimmers. Thirteen different nations offered equipment. A lot skimmers were offered from Holland. They could have got skimmers out of Texas. They had disbursers they could have put on it. They could have burned it. I mean...." [Honey EC: Charlene kept talking, but Brinker raised his voice so much that I could not understand her.] Brinker, with raised voice, said: "Problem solved! Problem solved......"

Near the end of the exchange, Brinker accused Charlene of wanting to blame Washington for the oil spill rather than BP. She tried to deny that and explain that she was simply saying that Washington should have acted sooner and the disaster could have been mitigated.....

..... Brinker told her that he would side with Charlie Maxwell, but if she wanted to blame government she could go to the "permit desk" and find out why permits for deep-water drilling were given to BP in light of their disastrous record of safety violations. [Honey EC: It's very unpleasant to listen to a caller try to make points and Brinker talking over what he doesn't want to get out on the air because he does not agree with the caller's views.....

...... Brinker added a political diatribe about how the same people keep getting re-elected who don't know what they are doing and he included another attack on the congressmen who "apologized" to BP. Of course, Brinker must not have heard that same congressman apologize for the apology. LOL! You can't make this stuff up, but If you want to hear the call, it's about 50 minutes into the first hour. As usual, Brinker carefully avoids even intimating that the person in the White House has any responsibility whatsoever.]

Brinker told a caller that the $8000 tax credit which ended April 30th was a help to the housing market -- it was a good government program. Brinker said: "I think 5 or 6 years down the road is enough time for some improvement to show up in a lot of markets across the country. There probably are markets that have been just taken out where it will take much longer than that. But I think the typical market around the country, five years from now, I'd be inclined to think it could be in much better shape than it is today....

.....But let's put that in perspective, the housing market, real estate today is pretty much on life tell it like it is. Now we've talked about exceptions. They've had a real nice bounce in KGO country, in the the SF Bay Area -- a nice bounce there in the past year......But when you look around the country, there are a lot of housing markets right now that are sluggish is the about the best you could say about it."

"With reference to the advice to sell out of the market because the long-term capital gains rate is going to go from 15 to 20% next year, it is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous.....A big pile of nonsense."

Brinker opined that after all high-earners have been pumped for all the tax increases Washington can get out of them, he expects to see Washington propose a value-added tax -- which of course, will affect everyone.

Brinker's guest-speaker was Charles Geisst:

To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after it is broadcast. Moneytalk has been canceled on all Saturdays. However, the Sunday program is archived in the 1-4pm time slots. To download and listen later, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window:

As promised, here are more of TFB's beautiful garden. Can you believe these are tomatoes?

Is there anything more beautiful than newly planted gardens. TFB has three types of corn here:


Sunday, June 13, 2010

June 13, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk

Sunday, June 13, 2010....Bob Brinker is not hosting Moneytalk today. Neale Godfrey is acting as fill-in host.

Right now (opening monologue), she is listing all of the books she has written for children and how Oprah caused them to "pop off the shelf" -- and how her kid told her to use plastic to pay for a new car. LOL!

If you are interested in financially "empowering children" so they will "leave the nest," this may be the program for you. 8)

In Edit: I listened to the first hour and caught little bits of the rest of the program. Based on what I heard, there was nothing that I found interesting enough to report on. I think some of the comments that have already been posted tell the story rather well.

I would make one suggestion to Bob Brinker: Dear Bob, if you don't want to do Moneytalk anymore, do yourself and your audience a favor and retire completely, or get a guest-host who has some real financial expertise -- someone who is willing to raise the level of conversation above the "It Takes a Village to raise kids" level.

Many thanks to TFB who sent these pictures of his fabulous garden. I will post three now and more at a later time. Click on the pictures to enlarge to full screen.

Strawberries framed by raspberries. YUM!!

Cherry tree wrapped with netting:

I've never seen corn grow this high:

Saturday, June 12, 2010

No More Saturday Moneytalk Programs

June 12, 2010....For those looking for Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, it is only broadcast on Sunday afternoons now. No more Saturday programs. On some stations, Larry Kudlow is hosting a show. Bob Brinker claims this cut-back was his idea and commented last Sunday that he very much enjoyed having Saturday off. That's understandable. He's well past retirement age.

Last Sunday, Brinker said that it's possible that he would call an "outright buy" on the stock market. Of course, this would apply to new money only because Brinker's model portfolios are 100% invested -- as they have been since March, 2003.

Additionally, Brinker has repeatedly advised followers to "buy on weakness." Now he is also saying to dollar-cost-average. This could only apply to those who have new money to put in the market.

Brinker has had many buy levels over the years and several during the 2008-2009 Megabear market, but how many sell levels (raise cash) has Brinker issued over the past 25 years? The answer is exactly two.

The first one was a short time after the 1987 bear market crash. That one was costly for his followers because the stock market made a lot of gains before he was back to fully invested.

The second one was in year-2000. He raised 65% cash reserves that year. That was a good call, but it was mostly wiped out by his buy-QQQQ trade that he issued via "special bulletin" in October 2000.

So in spite of the fact that Brinker has not raised any cash for years, and completely missed the recent Megabear, he is back to talking as though he is a successful market-timer.

When you look at Kirk's chart below, you will see Brinker's buy-levels in 2008-2009. The chart doesn't show that Brinker repeated his long-standing mid-1400's "gifthorse" buy in January 2008.

No wonder Brinker simply FROZE up and missed the March 2009 market bottom.

How much integrity does it take for Brinker to begin to talk about "outright buy signals" again?

And how much nerve does it take for him to dangle the "special bulletin on my website" carrot again?

The last two special bulletin "outright buy signals" Brinker put on his website were in 2008 and 2009:

* In February 2008, his "outright buy signal" was low-1300's (700 points above the low).

* In January 2009 his "outright buy signal" was S&P mid-800's (130 points above the low).

Dixiegeezer photographed this beautiful butterfly:

Sunday, June 6, 2010

June 6, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

June 6, 2010....Bob Brinker's Moneytalk is now broadcast on Sundays only. Bob Brinker opened the program by talking about the stock market.

Brinker said that he believes the stock market is undergoing a correction -- that it is not going to turn into a bear market (defined as more than a 20% decline) -- and that when the correction is over, the S&P 500 Index will exceed its April 2010 high.

* Gary from Columbus asked Bob Brinker what might serve as a catalyst to drive the stock market forward since we seem to be inundated with bad news every day.

Bob Brinker replied: "I've given my projections in my June investment letter and some parameters that go with that. [Honey EC: Brinker's little infomercial was correct. I checked it out and this is what he said in the June 2010 Marketimer: "We regard the current period of stock market weakness as an opportunity to increase equity holdings......We are now five weeks into the correction process, which we fully expect will mature with a decline of less than 20% in the S&P 500 Index.....We expect the S&P 500 Index to reach the 1275 to 1325 range by next winter. We are optimistic regarding the likelihood of additional S&P 500 earning gains in 2011.....All model portfolios remain fully invested....."]

Brinker continued with his reply to Gary: "Suffice to say this. I think that we're in a correction. I think that when all is said and done, it will amount to less than 20% on a closing basis from the 1217, April 23rd high....So far, we're 12 1/2%.....I've seen some things develop on the sentiment side that are definitely going in the right direction. There are some other things that I'd like to see fall in place and sometimes it takes some time for these things to fall in place.....

[Honey EC: Once again, Brinker is playing his ridiculous and meaningless game of pretending he can call tops and bottoms in the market while remaining fully invested. Notice he totally ignores the real high in the market of 1565 in October 2007. He simply gave himself a complete pass on the 57% market decline in 2008-2009 (note my summaries during that period, Brinker almost NEVER mentioned the stock market). Then he re-set his scorecard to a chosen date and started the game of "secular bears-cyclical bulls" all over again. The purpose? Why the obvious one, of course. Keep reading.]

Brinker continued talking to Gary: "Is it possible that we could get an outright buy signal on the market? Yeah, it's possible. If that were to happen, I would issue that in a special subscriber message at my website at Bob has not happened to date. We're in a dollar-cost-average mode at this juncture.....

[Honey EC: "an outright buy"? ROFLOL! That's a good one, Bob Sr. If your subscribers have followed your advice, they already have every dime of stock market money IN THE MARKET. Unless perhaps they won the lottery or inherited a bundle or maybe retired with a lump sum. The last time you raised any cash was in year-2000, and that was a rather small percentage after all was said and done....

....And oh yeah, by all means, let's wait for one of Brinker's special "buy bulletins." LOL! The last bulletin he issued was in January 2009. It contained his last buying-opportunity level to get in the market in the "mid-800's." The last chance to ride the market down to the 677 bottom in March, 2009. "ROAR!" All the other gift-horse buying opportunities were much higher -- as much as 50% higher. They were: mid-1400's, low-to-mid 1300's, low-1200's. Yikes! Be very glad if you missed any or all of them. 8)

Prior to the January 2009 special bulletin, Brinker issued one in February 2008. (Recall that in 2008, the S&P declined from the 1400's to the mid-8oo's.)

Here are some excerpts from Brinker's February 2008 special bulletin:
February 10, 2008
S&P 500 Index: 1331.29

Marketimer views the establishment of a correction bottom as a process which unfolds over a given period of time. This process involves the initial establishment of a closing S&P 500 Index low, followed by a short rally, followed by a test of the area of the previously established low on reduced trading volume. The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on January 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the January 22 closing low.

In our view, the correction bottoming process has proceeded with a high degree of historical consistency to date. We have witnessed a decided reduction in selling pressure during the testing process, which is essential to a successful outcome. We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1300's, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level. We view any such stock market weakness as an attractive buying opportunity for subscribers seeking to add to stock market positions. We regard any additional testing and probing in this S&P 500 Index price range as an
opportunity to purchase equities at what we regard as bargain level prices.
Brinker continued talking to Gary: "I think that if you go back on any correction historically, you will find that there are always several reasons that the market corrects.....I think the catalyst for this correction more than anything else -- remember I've already gone over the fact that we already had the pre-conditions for a correction because we had a lot of people over on one side of the boat when the investor sentiment got to 75% bullish. That's a really high number. That's come down substantially to the current reading of 58%......You had a market at that point in late April that had gone up 80% pretty much in a straight line.....

...... I talked about the very insignificant correction from mid-January to early February. A period of only three weeks. A decline of only 8% in the S&P 500.....Other than that, we had no meaningful corrections going all the way back to March of last year.....So I believe that the market was ripe to have some sort of a profit taking period and certainly a correction was part of that. .....I don't think there's anything unusual about, but I do think it's healthy....I think what is does is it strips out of the market place a lot of people that don't belong in the market...

[Honey EC: "healthy correction"?? Beware, he was saying the same thing back in 2007 as the S&P was nearing it ALL-TIME-high.] September, 2007, Marketimer, Brinker said: "....highly favorable territory as the health restoring summer correction has significantly enhanced our market outlook into 2008." He added: "......anticipate significant stock market gains going forward."

Brinker continued talking to Gary:
"You know you get people that go into a market when it's rising. They tend to buy at very high levels, usually after the market's taken a big run and then they decide, oh wow, this looks like an easy deal, and then they join in. And usually at that point, it's too late. And that's what happens when you see these sentiment ratings getting up to 75%. That's a really high number, and when you see that, it's telling you that a lot of people are joining the party.....Well it's never easy. There's no room for complacency in stock market investing, and it's never easy. And those who think it's easy usually wind up finding out it's not as easy as they thought....."

[Honey EC: Evidently Brinker thinks the "church of buy and hold" is a much nicer way to go. Both of his stock model-portfolios are underwater year-to-date -- again.]

Brinker concluded his comments to Gary:
"To answer your question very specifically, I think the market is driven by earnings. And I think corporate earnings are looking very, very good in 2010. And I think the outlook for 2011 is encouraging as we look forward.....I actually think when correction runs out of gas -- and I believe it will run out of gas, that we're going to see a market that is not only going back to the 1217 level of late April, but will rise above that level quite significantly, frankly. And I think those that go with that market are going to be happy campers....I can't join those who think it just gets worse and worse from here."

Brinker's guest-speaker was Douglas Irwin:

To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The three hours of the Sunday-only program is archived in the 1-4pm time slots. To download and listen later, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window:

Dixiegeezer snapped these gorgeous purple water lilies:


Thursday, June 3, 2010

Bob Brinker's 2010 Model Portfolio Performance

Bob Brinker has been gone from Moneytalk for a couple of weeks now as the month of May (YIKES) drew to a close. In the January, 2010 issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker returned to reporting on his "stock market timing model." Brinker had completely stopped writing about his timing model in Marketimer during the 2008-2009 megabear market.

This is the same "timing model" that Brinker once admitted to a caller had completely missed the 2008-2009 megabear market. Now he is saying that this timing model is "currently positive," and our stock market views are favorable ".....based solely on our cyclical stock market view." Why believe the timing model now? Brinker does -- you decide if you want to or not.

Now about 2010: Since the market decline that began a few weeks ago, Brinker has claimed that the market was just having a "correction" and the bad news bears are all wrong. (Please see excerpts from Moneytalk in prior posts.)

In May, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were off 8% --their worst May since 2000. For the Dow, it was the worst May in percentage terms since 1940, and it was the Dow's worst May ever, measured by points. However, in general, the stock market is close to where it began the year. So what did all of Brinker's "market-timing" do for him and his subscribers? Inquiring minds want to know. 8)

Bob Brinker's model portfolios performance year-to-date, as of May 31, 2010:

* Model Portfolio I: Minus 0.8%

* Model Portfolio II: Minus 1%

* Model Portfolio III (balanced, about 50% bonds): Plus 0.7%

Dixiegeezer photographed this picture of a "honeybee" 8)


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