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Thursday, May 20, 2010

Did Bob Brinker Do it Again?

Bob Brinker is known for missing bear markets. Matter of fact, in the past 24 years, he has only PARTIALLY called one bear market -- that was in 2000 when he sold 65% of equities in his model portfolios. Bob Brinker missed the mega-crash in 1987 and the 1998 almost-20% bear. And he was a roaring bull during the worst bear market of our lives -- 2008-2009.

[CNBC is reporting that the S&P 500 Index is now "red for the year."]

Brinker was absent from Moneytalk last weekend, but here are his most recent market prognostications:

May 5, 2010, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:
"We view any short-term periods of market weakness as a health-restoring event within the context of an ongoing cyclical bull market.....we recommend using a dollar-cost-averaging approach for new stock market cases where new subscribers find themselves underinvested [sic]."

May 8, 2010 Moneytalk, Bob Brinker said: "....I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to derail the United States economic recovery. And as a consequence of that belief, I do not believe that the crisis in Greece is going to produce a bear market in the United States. Bear markets are defined as losses in the major indexes, such as the S&P 500, in excess of 20% on a closing basis."

[Note that Brinker gives himself a 20% stock market decline leeway so he can claim he is "right." Any market declines that are less than that, he says are normal corrections. Obviously, one should not expect him to get you out of the market for anything less than a 20% decline! And obviously, his batting average for larger declines is almost non-existent.]

David Korn wrote the following Bob Brinker bear market commentary in his July 5-6, 2008 Newsletter. Posted with David's permission:
Bob Brinker has missed bear markets in the past. In the late
80s, he missed one, but he claims to have changed his timing
model after that to include the Sentiment Indicator. Also,
back in 1998, the Dow declined 19.4% on a closing basis,
and 21% on an intra-day basis he stayed fully invested.

Of course, the market went on a tear after the bottom was in,
and daBrink claimed that his model had stayed correctly
invested since it wasn't technically a 20% decline on a
closing basis. But if you remember back to
1998, sitting through a 19% plus decline wasn't any
walk in the park.

If the S&P 500 manages to stay above the 1262 level
on a closing basis, I am sure Bob will crow again
that his model worked as it should have. Personally,
I think we will get the bear on a closing basis. Stay

David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob
Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials,
and Special Alert E-Mail Service. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2008

I took these pictures a couple of days ago.

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