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Friday, January 9, 2009

What is In Bob Brinker's Timing Model?

Bob Brinker's Timing Model totally missed the 2008 bear market. November 22, 2008, a Moneytalk caller asked Brinker: "Did your market timing model detect any of this chaos in the market?" Brinker replied: "It did not."

Some of you have asked me what is in Brinker's Timing Model. Well, I believe the answers are in these excerpts from David Korn's 2005 summary of Brinker's live appearance at the San Jose Leukemia Cure-a-thon. (I previously posted the whole Cure-a-thon summary on January 7th, 2009. Check the column on the right for the link to it.)

Bob then discussed what he looks at in his stock market timing model. He looks at (1) Economic Cycles; (2) Monetary Policy; (3) [equity] Valuation; and, (4) [investor] Sentiment......"

[Korn EC]: I updated all of the sentiment data that I believe Bob follows in his model......"

[Korn EC#2]: Another of Bob's favorite sentiment data points is the Investor's Intelligence Survey...... Using the formula [(bulls)/(bulls + bears)]......... Bob uses the four-week moving average......."


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