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Friday, January 16, 2009

Bob Brinker's Current Advice and How He Got There

Bob Brinker can issue new "buying opportunities" until the cows come home, but it will not change the fact that his model portfolios are fully invested and he has raised no cash reserves to buy anything with.

Brinker called two specific stock market bottoms in 2008, and issued several "buying opportunities," including the mid-1400's, mid-1300's and low-1200's. Finally all of them were done away with, and the advice has remained to dollar-cost-average new money. All that occured as the S&P 500 Index dropped to a low of 752 in November.

First 2008 bottom call:

March 2008 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "The process of establishing a stock market correction bottom has unfolded in text-book fashion over the past two months. This process involves the establishment of an initial closing low, followed by a short-term rally, followed by testing of the area of the prior established closing low on reduced trading volume ... The correction bottoming process (over the past few weeks) has seen a significant reduction in selling pressure in the vicinity of the Jan. 22 closing low. This is a very important aspect of any successful test."

Second 2008 bottom call:

September 3, 2008 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "Although additional testing of the area of the July 15 closing low may occur, we view the S&P 500 low-to-mid 1200's range as an attractive area for equity purchases."

In January 2009 Marketimer, Brinker said he was looking for a NEW bottom and he thought it would stay in the range of
the "November lows" in the "mid-880's" range. (However, the November lows were in the mid-700's, so saying "mid-880's" makes little sense, but it sure sounds better.) S&P 500 Index 752 (the November low) is BELOW Brinker's March 2003 all-in buy-level.

So will Brinker be correct this time??? Is the market "successfully testing" the lows? And is this actually an opportunity to buy the stock market at favorable prices? We shall know in the fullness of time. 8^)

I took this picture recently:


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