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Saturday, January 31, 2009

Bob Brinker Sez Bottom is in (Again)

Bob Brinker always says that the stock market anticipates the future about six months in advance, so one would have to conclude that he believes the market bottom is now in, and it will soon be turning up -- IF 2009 is going to turn out to be a good year like he is forecasting.

But don't forget that he has made several similar forecasts during this mega-bear market. Here are three examples. (February, June and October, 2008):

1) According to Peter Brimelow’s February 21, 2008 Marketwatch article, Bob Brinker said:
"The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on Jan. 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the Jan. 22 closing low........We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level." . "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S$P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009."

2) In Mark Hulbert's June 2, 2008, Marketwatch article, he wrote the following about Bob Brinker's stock market outlook:

"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested."
[Honeybee EC:] Also, in the June 4, 2008 issue of Marketimer, Brinker said that since the March test of the lows: ".......a renewed uptrend has been underway, and we expect the market to trade with an upward bias until new record highs are achieved above the S&P 500 Index closing high of 1565.15 registered last October. Our S&P 500 Index price target remains in the 1600 range either late this year or in 2009."

3) Mark Hulbert's October 7, 2008 article in Barron's says the following:

"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early October, editor Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe the stock market will return to an uptrend within six months of the start of the next economic recovery. Although the timing of the recovery is uncertain, our view is that it could be underway by next spring. If that scenario unfolds, we could be looking at a stock market turnaround beginning in this year's fourth quarter. This bear market decline has been accompanied by an extraordinary flow of negative financial news, but we are focused on stock market recovery in 2009 as investors go through the process of discounting economic recovery prospects in advance of an improved economic outlook." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested."

Dixiegeezer sent this picture of Mt. Hood in Oregon:


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