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Thursday, October 9, 2008

October 9th: One-Year Anniversary of All-Time Market High

What was Bob Brinker saying one year ago as the S&P reached its all-time high of 1565.15 on October 9, 2007?

In the October 2007 Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: ".......we see the potential for the S&P 500 Index to rise at least into the mid-1600's range next year.....During August and September there were 18 buying opportunities, consisting of 15 market days on which the S&P 500 Index closed within the 1430 to 1470 range........"

Interestingly, October 9, 2002 is the anniversary of the bear market low of the 2000-2002 bear market. Could today possibly become the anniversary of the end of the 2008 bear market? We shall know in the "fullness of time."

Three things we now know for certain:

1. Bob Brinker's timing model did not even suspect the bear market was approaching.

2. Bob Brinker has remained 100% invested in his Model Portfolios during this bear market and so has any Marketimer subscribers or Moneytalk listeners who have followed his advice.

3. Bob Brinker has called several stock market bottoms in 2008 -- none of which were correct.

Kirk Lindstrom wrote that the average bear market decline is about 30%, and that we are currently down 38% in the S&P; 37% in the Dow; and 40% in the Nasdaq.

Blogger jumpnjoey said...

Honey, the SPX is down like 30% since Brinker said "don't sell here" three weeks ago?

October 9, 2008 12:26 PM

Will L, a long-time Bob Brinker expert and historian, wrote:

Anonymous Will_L said...

The hole Brinker dug for himself has no exit that would show him to be honest and competent.

His claim that he is out there hunting for his bottom, after having called bottoms in the 1400s, 1300s, 1200s--and we've been in the 900s and he says to $ cost average gives him NO avenue of escape.

If Brinker calls another buying opportunity around 900, it will make him the laughing stock of those who still haven't had their subscription to his rag expire.

They have followed him all the way down almost 4000 points on the dow, about 35% from the top last fall with him bullish all the way. He calls a "buying opportunity" in the vicinity that he called a buying opportunity 5 1/2 years ago. That means he gave up about 80% of those gains (took a round trip) and they are not going to be happy.

On the other hand if Brinker waits for the market to get back into the mid 1200s say, and calls his next "buying opportunity" to anyone subscribing he looks like a complete idiot for calling a buy at the same point he did months eariler and not when the market was in the 900s.

The charade that is Brinker's form of marketiming and the parlor game of calling the "buying opportunities" (a buy the dips strategy) has been shown for what it is--a flawed strategy for equity investing.

You see just as those buy the dips BS "buying opportunities" give confidence to fully invested investors in a bull market. Brinker's clueless buying opportunities in a bear market give subscribes the false sense of security that everything is fine as Rome burns.

Once and for all the troops have to admit --it was all hokem.

Now what can Bobby do? Lay low, jabber as though he called the thing and understands the bear market fully but don't talk about the bear market much and just HOPE the market moves up in 09.

Marketiming has become for Bob Brinker followers a "buy and hope" strategy.

October 9, 2008 6:39 AM

But what can Brinker do now?
Blogger Jody said...

The problem is that Brinker has no idea where the market is going to go, so the only thing he can do right now is minimize the number of mistakes that his model makes. Even if he hangs on all the way down to Dow 5,000, his non-sell signal can still be interpreted as only "one mistake," and he can try to pin the blame on outside forces.

However, if he cashes out now and the market turns around, then that would look like two mistakes to potential newsletter subscribers - buying high and selling low - and he cannot afford that in any way shape or form if he wants to keep his newsletter going.

October 9, 2008 5:38 AM

October 9, 2008 Market Update

S&P dropped another 7.6%.
Dow dropped 7.3%.
Nasdaq dropped another 5.5%
Oil dropped 5%

It seemed to be panic selling in the last hour. They're calling it a "cascading waterfall" on CNBC. Wonder if Bob Brinker's piano player has been taken out yet?

I know most investors don't feel much like laughing today, but SeaBiscuit has a Brinker-Shave for us:

Just put the bear

On "Ignore"

That's market-timing

For you, signor!

Brinker Shave


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