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Saturday, October 4, 2008

Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Discussion, Commentary and Excerpts, October 4, 2008

Bob Brinker's Moneytalk Excerpts and Honeybee's Commentary, Updates and Discussion

Bob Brinker took one stock market call today:
Caller John from Providence RI, said: “Hello Bob. Bob, are you still on the opinion that the S&P’s going to challenge the all-time-highs this year?"

Bob Brinker guffawed loudly and then said: “Well I think John, that obviously that’s going to take time because we have seen a very, very difficult situation here. And I think that if you expected that to happen this year for example, that would really be off the table. I think to see new highs in the market this year would be impossible. Just my opinion. 1-800-xxx-xxxx, let’s get Cesar on the line in…..”

If caller John expected new highs in 2008, it may have been because Brinker predicted them repeatedly for the last few months of 2007, and has predicted them several times in 2008. In my April 19, 2008 Summary, I wrote:

Brinker, in answer to his guest speaker’s direct question, “Are you still bullish," said that he thinks we are going to have “new record highs in the stock market by next year” but that a lot of people think he’s lost his mind.
Brinker then said: “We’ll see who wins out. I’m pretty confident of my forecast…........if you are looking for the market into 2009, then obviously, you should be feeling pretty good about your stock market portfolio. Because not only has it shown a very nice advance since the correction lows in March, but in addition to that, I think it has a lot further to go. And I continue to expect, as I have said, that we will see new all-time-historic-record highs in the S&P 500 Index........

..........And I believe those new all-time-historic-record highs will develop as we move into 2009. And I believe that what we will have in the record book point is what we already have, which is a stock market correction. And unfortunately, there are people in the market who don’t understand that stocks do fluctuate. And they can certainly fluctuate within the correct zone of less than 20% and they’ve done it many times in the past -- Nothing unusual about it at all.”

STOCK MARKET CORRECTION: Brinker said: “....Stock market sitting in at 1390 on the S&P 500 Index. Now the all-time high recorded last October at 1565 prior to the correction, and we’ve had the correction. In my opinion, it came and it went and it’s in the history books. And right now, we are in a position where investors are looking ahead. I think they are looking ahead to an economic recovery down the line and that’s why we’ve seen the market improving.”

BEAR MARKET…..Brinker said: “Those who are out there with the bear stories now are making fools of themselves because it just doesn’t compute does it? When you have a market that’s seen this kind of buying it just doesn’t compute……. that America is spiraling downward – doesn’t make any sense.”

According to Peter Brimelow’s February 21, 2008 Marketwatch article, in the February Marketimer, Bob Brinker said:
"The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on Jan. 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the Jan. 22 closing low........We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level." . "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S$P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009."

In Mark Hulbert's June 2, 2008, Marketwatch article, he wrote the following about what Brinker said in the June issue of Marketimer:

"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested."
Also, in the June 4, 2008 issue of Marketimer, Brinker said that since the March test of the lows: ".......a renewed uptrend has been underway, and we expect the market to trade with an upward bias until new record highs are achieved above the S&P 500 Index closing high of 1565.15 registered last October. Our S&P 500 Index price target remains in the 1600 range either late this year or in 2009."

So clearly, as late as the beginning of last June, Brinker was bragging about being bullish and expecting new highs late this year or in 2009. His reply to John the caller was a prime example of how cleverly and deceptively he can answer questions. He didn't lie to John, but he certainly didn't tell the truth either.

The stock market was not mentioned again on Saturday. Brinker's monologues were devoted to the banking/financial problems and the $700billion "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008" that was signed on Capitol Hill in Washington last week.

Calls covered the same old territory: CD's, real estate, FDIC Insurance, mortgages and California's possible $7billion loan. Brinker is adamant that California General Obligation Bonds are safe. He said he owns some of them.

Brinker's guest speaker Saturday was Floyd Norris who writes a weekly column for the New York Times.

Blogger jeffchristie said...

The second callers after John was Larry from Gig Harbor. He Said: "HI Bob. First thing I would like to do is complement your call screener very curious and good questions. Next thing I would like to say is I am a long term listener and subscriber. Because of you I reached critical mass." Bob then told him congratulations never put it at risk. Larry said:" Well even with a 20% drop in the asset value of my portfolio....."

Has anyone here gotten through to Moneytalk. I am curious as to the good questions that the screener asks.

October 5, 2008 5:10 AM

Sunday Update

No stock market talk today. Brinker said that there will absolutely be no inflation; however, he believes there may possibly be a recession. He said that so far, there has not been two consecutive quarters of negative real Gross Domestic Product (the historic definition of a recession), but it might happen if the 4th quarter comes in negative.

Anonymous Will L said...

Anybody else notice that Bob Brinker is pretending to be calling a recession now after making fun of those who said this was coming to no end?

He's taking credit for calling downturn--while in actuality Bob Brinker has been making fun of people who are bearish and calling a great buying opportunity every hundred points all the way down.

Now he is still fully invested and has given up in less than a year half of the gains from the previous 4.

The idiot is now telling a goober that inflation will not be a problem!! HOW STUPID. Sure we are in a deflationary spiral RIGHT NOW--but we have just spent a trillion bucks give or take and it ain't going to work.

Obama is ahead as are the dems in congress by a landslide. They if things go as they are will have a free ride for any legislation they please. Healthcare for everybody. Tax cuts and handouts as far as the eye can see for people that don't pay taxes or pay very little.

No drilling--no nuclear--no coal. Cap in trade, Kyoto sign up--

Regulation Regulation Regulation

60 days paid leave if you don't feel like working.

12.00/hr minimum wage with a 32 hr work week before overtime kicks in.

The ONLY WAY OUT OF THE MESS FOR THE PARTY (and that is meant as in lampshade on the head democrat reckless spending and giveaways) is to PRINT MONEY.

Inflating their way out of the mess is the only way. Now if McCain gets elected or this plan works, then I will have been proven wrong for betting on what seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise short term save money and treasury protected securities look to be a huge winner.

October 5, 2008 2:51 PM

Brinker's guest speaker on Sunday was Dan Ariely who wrote: Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions


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