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February 4, 2008 Marketimer, Bob Brinker wrote: "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S&P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009.". .
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From Honeybee's May 31, 2008 Moneytalk Summary excerpts:
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Bob Brinker gave the following market statistics: “The stock market had a good month in the month of May, finishing at 1400.38 in the S&P 500 Index……….a gain of about 1.48%.........and for the second consecutive month the market showed gains. The Dow finished the month at 12,638, that was up 1.3% for the week……..and the Nasdaq Composite had a big week – up 3.2% to close at 2522.”
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CORRECTION LOW AND TESTS.... Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."
.STOCK MARKET BEARS.... Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
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We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.”
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June 20, 2008, Dow close: 11,842.69; S&P 500 close: 1317.93; Nasdaq close: 2406
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Here's an interesting analysis of Bob Brinker's latest buy-level, which he lowered from the "mid-1400's-range" to "low 1300's" (on February 10, 2008) when the S&P was at 1331:
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Sir Pig, with his outstanding ability to make solid points with humor, responded:
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>>His buy was at 1331, or lower.
OH.........OK. So exactly what does that mean? Should I have bought at 1331, or lower? (Can you make this crap up???)
>>Pay attention to the wording in the Feb 10 special bulletin.
Sorry.........I have enough toilet paper. Can you decipher it for me with your decoder ring?
>>What does "Current" mean to you?
Mmmm? I'm not a genius, but I think it means "current", which is a hell of a lot lower than 1331? What am I missing? Kan U s'plain it to me?
>>Here is my definition:
Low 1300s is 1300 to 1333
Mid 1300s is 1333 to 1366
High 1300s is 1366 to 1399
OK, but where does 1282 fall within that range? And.......where is 1450? Sorry to be soooo stooopid..........but you sound soooo smart, compared to me.
>>1331 toi 1293 is
toi? Sorry, I don't know any foreign language, or Wall St lingo?
>>is "only" 2.9% lower
Thanks. I'll tell that to United tomorrow, when I'm 2.9% late for my flight, and they should make it up to me, and bring the plane back.
Are you based on this planet, or elsewhere?
Sorry to be rude, but you are apologizing and spinning like a top. HTH
AAR, please don't answer unless you have something constructive to add, because so far, you don't impress me as too knowledgeable about making money.
Pig wrote: "I missed the low 1300 buy."
His buy was at 1331, or lower.
Pay attention to the wording in the Feb 10 special bulletin.
What does "Current" mean to you?
The market was 1331.29 that day according to the bulletin.
Brinker wrote:
We now [not next MONTH or at 1293] rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1300's, [not next MONTH or at 1293] or any minor weakness that occurs below that level.
Here is my definition:
Low 1300s is 1300 to 1333
Mid 1300s is 1333 to 1366
High 1300s is 1366 to 1399
1331 toi 1293 is "only" 2.9% lower, but little things matter, especially if someone has a "habit" of calling bottoms every 8% without selling anything at the top.