Note from Honeybee to Blog Friends

My apologies for the delay in publishing your blog comments. Unfortunately, I was hospitalized early Tuesday morning and released yesterday afternoon.

I won't bore you with the details, but after a myriad of tests, I was declared in good health. The final diagnosis was that I am suffering from the lingering effects of way tooooo many antibiotics that have been prescribed for me in the past three months.

Please note that I have now published all your comments -- thank you for the interesting discussions and comments.

My best to all....Honeybee.

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April 24, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Posted April 24, 2010....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk today. The big topic (and almost the only one) was Goldman Sachs and the whole sub-prime mortgage loans meltdown, political punditry, etc.

Most of the opening monologue was devoted to Goldman Sachs' emails. Fox News: "Goldman's Internal Email Released."


Brinker's miscellaneous points today:

* Expect the Federal capital gains rate to go to 20% on January 1st, as "Obama is proposing" (it's 15% now).
* Be sure all of your deposits are covered by FDIC Insurance.
* For deposits larger than $250,000, see CDARS.com.
* Brinker said: "Those making a big deal about inflation are wrong." (Core rate is now 1.1%.)
* A "third party" dedicated to fiscal responsibility is needed.
* I-bonds will probably reset to 1.84%.

Honey EC: Last week Brinker was emphatically for Obama's "financial reform." He went so far as to say he wouldn't vote for anyone who was against it. It's interesting how eager he is to always hand more power over to the government without even knowing what is meant by "reform."

One caller mentioned the SEC porn scandal today, but Brinker had little to say about it. I guess it didn't occur to him that any branch of government might be to blame. Some of the SEC employees make as much as $220,000 a year and spend most of their time looking at porn online.

Brinker's Saturday guest-speaker was Vicky Ward:




Dixiegeezer took these pictures at Sarasota Jungle Gardens in Florida. Click to enlarge -- very beautiful:



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April 17-18, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Posted April 17, 2010....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk this weekend.

Here's a link to Brinker's big topic of the day (weekend) that he spent most of the program discussing: He called it the biggest financial story in the United States and Europe this weekend: Wall Street Journal: SEC Charges Goldman With Fraud.

Saturday, Brinker did not talk about the stock or bond markets. Basically, Brinker is still fully invested, as he has been since March 2003. He believes the current "cyclical bull market" is intact and "will not come to an end anytime soon." He recommends buying equities "on weakness."

As for the bond market, he still recommends Vanguard's GMNA Fund and believes that even if interest rates go up, the fund will stay in the $9.50-$10.50 range.

Brinker's return to defining the stock market as a "cyclical bull" within a "secular bear megatrend" is something he has done very recently. He devoted a great deal of time to "secular trends" between 2000-2007 -- inferring he could predict when the cyclical bull cycle would end -- which of course, he never was able to do. Indeed, when his "timing model" failed to recognize the Grizzly's approach, he simply reverted to predicting market bottoms. He was never able to do that either and actually missed the real bottom in March, 2009.

However, he has changed his definition of a "cyclical bear." He used to call anything more than a 20% decline a full-fledged bear market. Now he defines the 2008-2009 (S&P 500 Index lost 57%) mega-bear as a "cyclical bear" market -- never mind that during that time frame, he is on record saying the secular bear market had ended in 2006. [Please see this post: April 10th Summary]

Brinker quote: "If you are not fully disclosing what's going on, you are in the snake oil business and not to be trusted."

Brinker quote: "I am a Capitalist. I would not be promoting Socialist policies."

SUNDAY UPDATE:

* Brinker recited the closing stock and bond market numbers -- S&P 500 Index up 7 1/2% year-to-date.

* Lots of earnings reports coming out next week. [I have a link to earnings reports in right hand column under "Items of interest to investors".

* Answering a caller's question about dollar-cost-averaging money into the stock market, Brinker said: "To answer your question directly at this juncture, with the market trading at the upper-1100's as we speak, yes I would adopt a dollar-cost-average approach to get that money in the market." [Honey EC: Brinker has not recommended dollar cost averaging in his newsletter since the March 2009 issue. He has been recommending "buy on weakness" since then.]

* Model portfolio III is his Marketimer balanced portfolio [This half bonds - half stock fund lost 23.9% in the 2008-2009 bear market.]

Brinker's Saturday guest speaker was Roger Lowenstein:



Brinker's Sunday guest-speaker was Kenneth Posner: "Stalking the Black Swan."

Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The three hours of the programs are archived Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm. To download the programs and listen later, just choose the day, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window: kgofeedback@yahoo.com

SJ Al took this picture of Hetch-Hetchy reservoir and Wapama Falls, and Half Dome in Yosemite. Click to enlarge -- gorgeous:



I don't usually post 3 photos at once, but Al sent the link (see comments) to this wonderful picture of T. Roosevelt and John Muir at Glacier Point:

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Highest CD Rates with FDIC Insurance

You can often get higher than advertised rates at your local branch if you do your homework. Print out the "Highest CD Rate Survey" and bring it in with you. Also print out some of the advertisements showing rates advertised on your bank's competing web sites so you have proof. (Make sure the date shows on your printout so they know it is current.) Bring in the survey and ask them to beat or at least meet the best advertised rate. They often will do this to keep your business or to keep you walking out the door.

• The best CD rate 1 year or less is 1.55% at Aurora Bank.
  
  
• The highest CD rate of any term is 3.60% at Discover Bank for a term of 10 years.

• I Bonds: Very attractive rate: Recommended in both my newsletters at current rates.
  
  
• Current I Bond Earnings Rates
  
  
• Series I Bonds Explained
  
  
• Earnings Rates for Older Series-I Bonds

Here is the table with more rates and terms for CDs:

Highest CD Rates Survey
UST = US Treasury Bond

Term	Highest Rate (APY)	Where? (Click link for Full Rate Sheets)
6 Month CD	1.28%	Aurora Bank
1 Year CD	1.55%	Nova Bank & Aurora Bank
1 Yr UST	0.43%	US Treasury Rate Quote
18-Mo CD	1.79%	Aurora Bank
2 Year CD	2.05%	TriState Capital Direct
3 Year CD	2.50%	PenFed CU & TriState Capital Direct
4 Year CD	2.92%	Bank of Internet USA
5 Year CD	3.30%	EverBank
5 Yr UST	2.59%	US Treasury Rate Quote
7 Year CD	3.51%	Pentagon Federal CU
10 Yr CD	3.60%	Discover Bank
10 Yr UST	3.86%	US Treasury Rate Quote

If the above text is too small to read, then read it "HERE in a larger font."

Be careful when you go to your bank and ask for their best rate. They will often use that as an excuse to sell you an annuity that sounds good on the surface, but is far more profitable for them due to the higher fees.

Make sure you read the Article: Beware of Annuities

Jeff Christie Gives Bob Brinker an American-History Lesson

Posted April 12, 2010...Bob Brinker often talks politics on Moneytalk. Very seldom does a caller get a chance to rebut Bob Brinker's viewpoints. Jeff Christie wrote this:

jeffchristie said...

Bob Brinker said some things about America and it's founding fathers, Saturday on Moneytalk, that I quite frankly found disturbing. It all stated when a caller ask about the up coming November election. Brinker said he has heard people talk about taking our country back whatever that means. Well Bob I don't know the origin of that phrase but the first time I heard it was back in 2004 at a campaign speech by Howard Dean. Dr. Dean was the head of the Democrat party's national committee at that time. Here is a direct quote:


"We're going to take this country back, and it's going to take election, after election, after election, work after work, after work, and win, after win, after win. Take back America, we want our country back, and it's our country, we built it, and now in November we're going to take it back."

I dismissed it as political rhetoric then and see it as the same today when people use it.

Brinker then made what I consider to be the "Cheap Shot" of the week. He said which part of the founding fathers do you like best slavery or not allowing women to vote. Slavery existed in North America long before the founders of this country decided to declare their independence from England. If the original US constitution were to prohibit slavery the southern boundary of the country would be Maryland. As for prohibiting women from voting. there is no provision for doing so in the constitution. They left voter eligibility up the the states. Women did vote in Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho and Utah prior to 1900.

The original version of the United States constitution was the start of what I consider the finest country in the history of western civilization. I think it is one of the greatest documents ever written by man. I am not surprised that Mr. Brinker would show contempt for it and the men who wrote it. After all Brinker was part of the 60's antiwar crowd who spit on people like me who were serving in the military at the time of the Viet Nam war.

April 12, 2010 6:48 AM [Link to original post]

SJ Al took these pictures in Yosemite just a few days ago:

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April 10, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Posted April 10, 2010....Bob Brinker was preempted on KGO810 San Francisco for the yearly Leukemia Curathon. Sunday, it was reported that KGO raised over a million dollars for Leukemia research. Kudos to them.

Points Bob Brinker made this weekend:

* Bob Brinker said: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average closing out the week at 10, 997. That is a new cyclical bull market recovery high for the Dow. The S&P 500 Index also closing the week at a new cyclical bull market recovery closing high of 1194....The total rate of return, including cash dividends, for the S&P 500 Index year-to-date, now stand at 7 1/2%."

* Interest rates remain very low.

* Inflation remains benign.

* Raising taxes is inevitable. They are already raising a new "healthcare" Medicare payroll tax for high earners. Now a value-added tax may be next:

* Brinker said: "Now the word comes that the Washington mucky-ta-mucks are studying a value-added tax.....which is gaining more and more support....Now we hear that the Congressional Budget Office is studying a new tax for the United States, called a value-added tax." [Value-added tax is added at each stage of production and can raise big money.]

* Annualized budget deficit is $1 1/2Trillion. Brinker said: "These are numbers that nobody could ever have conceived of years ago....It's 1 1/2Trillion we don't have."

* National debt at $12 1/2 Trillion. CBO forecasts it will be $20Trillion within a decade.

* Washington DC keeps spending so that they can then force increased taxes.

* If we want to remain the "greatest country in the world," we need to put people in office who will work to maintain the US triple-A rating.

Brinker did not have any guest-speakers this weekend.



Item of interest: BOB BRINKER'S SECULAR BEAR MEGATREND IS ON AGAIN.

In June, 2007, Bob Brinker stated that the secular bear megatrend that he said began in Year-2000 had ended the PRIOR year -- in June, 2006!

June, 2007 Marketimer, Brinker said: "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P 500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."

Brinker never mentioned the secular bear megatrend again until this month (And he never told Moneytalk listeners he said it ended):

April 5, 2010, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "The current secular bear megatrend began during the first quarter of Year 2000, and is now entering its eleventh year."

No doubt, Brinker had to declare the secular bear megatrend back on because even though his timing model missed the worst bear market since the Great Depression and he rode it down fully invested, he is now calling the current market a "cyclical bull market."

Of course, this opens up the possibility that he can convince people he will help them sidestep the next cyclical bear market. Very clever marketing tool and one that he used almost identically from 2000 to 2007 -- then the 2008-2009 megabear cut his portfolios in half!! [Honey's opinion: Thanks to Brinker working weekends on radio well past retirement age, he has re-grouped and is repeating what worked for him before -- some of it almost verbatim from years back.]



This is a view of Lighthouse Point that I took from the Santa Cruz Wharf. Click to enlarge:

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April 3, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Posted April 3, 2010....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk this weekend.

Saturday, in the opening monologue, Brinker talked about the jobs report that came out on Friday. Brinker commented that 44% of the jobless rate is long-term, but otherwise seemed pleased with the numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics

In the second hour monologue, Brinker talked about hedge funds.

In the third hour monologue, Brinker talked about the latest dialogue on off-shore drilling. Brinker is all for it. Brinker gave the credit for this to President Obama. [Honey EC: How very odd that I do not recall a single time that Brinker ever mentioned that President Bush had pushed for off-shore drilling for years.]

Some points Brinker made today:

* Taxes will go up.
* Recommends Roth IRAs for those who qualify.
* Vanguard GNMA Fund will fluctuate but stay between $9.50 - $10.50 even if interest rates go up.
* Inflation will remain benign.

There were two callers who said they invested in Brinker's Marketimer model portfolio III. Brinker replied this way to the first one: "There are those out there who are saying, what in the world is Elizabeth talking about." [Honey EC: Yep, that would be any spanking brand new listeners who just discovered Moneytalk. LOL]

Brinker then explained to those new listeners for the umpteenth time that model portfolio III is about 50-50 stocks/bonds. On previous programs he has even talked about which stocks and bonds. For example, VTSMX is the major stock holding. It also has a couple of managed funds, but the percent of each is infinitesimal. He recently added a very small percentage of Vanguard International Growth. On the bond side, he has 20% Vanguard Ginnie Mae, and the other 30% divided between Vanguard TIPS and VFSTX.

Elizabeth said she had used model portfolio III for many years and done very well. It's good she didn't start using it in the fall of 2007 at the market high because that fund is still about 10% underwater from then. And it would have been a real scary ride in the 2008-2009 mega-bear market as Brinker advised remaining fully invested and it lost 23.9%.

Brinker's radio program today consisted mostly of callers with questions about selling their homes, IRAs and other personal questions. There was no political talk for the first time in a long time.....There was no discussion of the stock or bond markets.

Brinker's Saturday Moneytalk guest was Liaquat Ahamed:



Brinker's Sunday guest-speaker was James Kwak, co-author of: "13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown"

Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The three hours of the programs are archived Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm. To download the programs and listen later, just choose the day, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window: kgofeedback@yahoo.com

Dixiegeezer sent this picture of "new eagles" at Dunedin, Florida and the beautiful white swan that makes me think of Easter tomorrow:


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