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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Bob Brinker's Latest Stock Market Advice

March 16, 2011....Bob Brinker, the radio talk show host, has always promoted himself as a market-timing guru. What are his latest stock market timing updates?

Moneytalk, January 16, 2011, Bob Brinker said: "The S&P at 1293, actually with a 3% total return year-to-date in 2011....."Are there going to be short-term corrections in here? Of course there are. It's my guess that there are going to be single-digit corrections. That's my best guess right here. That if we get corrections in this market, and we're talking about a market that's been horrendously strong as it's reached its new recovery high in the S&P at 1293. But we're certainly in a position where we could easily see short-term corrections in this market because it's always been that way. There's nothing new about this. But my personal view would be that they would be single-digit corrections based on what I'm seeing."

Moneytalk, February 27, 2011 was the next time that Bob Brinker expressed his market-timing views. He said:
"I have even made comments on the broadcast about this subject.... The market, and the areas of risk we could be seeing in the market from time to time that would be normal expectation.....As a matter of fact, last month right here on the broadcast, I pointed out that there are going to be along the way, and they might be small -- they might not be as small as what we've seen, which has been minuscule. Right now, we're 1.7% below the recovery's almost nothing at all......

.....Of course there are going to be short-term corrections in the market. I also pointed out that my guess was that at this point, the likelihood would be that they would be single-digit percentage corrections. So far, that has been correct......I view it as a health-restoring event in a cyclical bull market, which is what I believe we're in. It's a heck of a one, but I think that's what it is -- a cyclical bull market. We've had ones greater than the one we're in right now and we certainly had a lot that were smaller than this. I just don't see any reason right now to sign on to the doomsday machine. If I did, I would tell you."

Bob Brinker believes that the stock market is in a cyclical bull, running concurrently with a secular bear.

As of the March, 2011 Marketimer, he does not see an end to the cyclical bull on the radar. Just the opposite, he raised his S&P 500 Index target to the "1400 to 1450 zone," depending on the "economic recovery and the ability of the Federal Reserve to effectively manage monetary policy." He also recommends a "dollar-cost-average approach for new investing."

Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested, as they have been since March, 2003. His latest in a long list of ever-lower buying-opportunities was in July, 2010 at S&P 1030 -- that is the one he talks about on Moneytalk now. He never mentioned mid-1400's, mid-1300's or low 1200's....

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