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Sunday, October 17, 2010

October 17, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk ("Land of Critical Mass")

October 17, 2010.....Bob Brinker took the day off from Moneytalk. Bob Brinker's fill-in host was Lynn Jimenez. Lynn Jimenez is a business reporter for KGO810 newstalk radio.


Bob Brinker's Marketimer off-the-books list of "Individual Issues" includes three stock picks and nine very well-known ETFs. (Brinker recommends limiting individual stocks to 4% of equity holdings, but does not put that limit on ETFs.)

Microsoft and Vodafone have remained on the Individual Issues list for more than a decade.
However, on March 11, 2003, Brinker upgraded MSFT to a "buy" at $23, and Vodafone to a "buy" at $17. They have both been on hold ever since.

As of May 1, 2009, Brinker added Suncor (SU) - buy in the mid-$20s price range. The stock closed at $27.30 that day.

Lately, Brinker has been reporting on how well his model portfolios are doing
year-to-date -- he uses the model portfolios as his "on-the-books" official performance record.

Let's take a look at how his "off-the-books" individual stock recommendations are doing year-to-date.

These year-to-date returns on Brinker's stock picks may reveal why he sticks to mutual funds in his official on-the-record model portfolios. As you can see, two of his three picks are down significantly this year (MSFT down 16.6%). And the long-term numbers for MSFT and VOD are nothing to write home about. 8)

Flash from the past:

UTEK used to be on Brinker's Individual Issues list. He added UTEK to his Marketimer
in July, 1997 at under $24, but recommended it again in the October 1997 newsletter at $30. He finally sold it in January, 2001 at $27 a share. (While I don't have access to any Marketimers going back to 1996, 1997 and 1998, I have (beyond a reasonable doubt) proof that this happened.

I also have the transcript of Brinker recommending UTEK on Nightly Business report on May 16, 1996 at (almost) $30 -- the night before it topped out at $33 per share. What's most interesting about the history of this stock pick are the lengths that Brinker went to promoting it -- and why he did it so enthusiastically.....More on this subject later....

A friend who lives in Missouri sent this picture of fall colors there:

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