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Sunday, September 5, 2010

September 5, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Bob Brinker is not hosting Moneytalk today -- probably because it is Labor Day weekend. Bob Brinker's guest host was Lynn Jimenez, who is a business reporter for KGO810 radio.

Jimenez' main topic of the day was "jobs." It seemed to me like a topic that would only be interesting for those who might be unemployed at the present time. She also talked about the pros and cons of employers having the right to do credit checks on prospective employees.

Jimenez' third hour guest was John Challenger. He was recently quoted in Bloomberg Business Week: "The recovery may indeed be stalling, but any slowdown is unlikely to lead to a sudden resurgence in mass layoffs,” John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement. “Unfortunately, a slowing recovery could be met with further delays in much-needed hiring.”

So if this subject is interesting to you and you missed Lynn Jimenez program, it is now available for listening and downloading at the link below.

Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. Moneytalk has been canceled on all Saturdays. The Sunday program is archived in the 1-4pm time-slots. To download and listen later, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO: Download Moneytalk Here

BOB BRINKER FIX: What does Brinker base his market-timing speculations on? Here is the answer:

Marketimer, April 5, 2010, S&P 1169, Bob Brinker said: “While we have always taken an interest in the underlying secular market dynamics and market history, all Marketimer model portfolio asset allocation decisions are based on our cyclical stock market outlook and the Marketimer stock market timing model.”

Honey EC: Firstly, I would ask Mr. Brinker if that is the same "stock market timing model" that he admitted was predicting S&P 1650 at the market top in October 2007, and stayed fully invested all the way down to S&P 676 in March, 2009.

Secondly, I agree that Brinker certainly does find the "secular market dynamics" interesting, that is, if the amount of space he devotes to it in Marketimer is any indication of his interest and not just page fillers like some of the other pages that are simply recopied each month.

There have been numerous issues of Marketimer that were almost entirely devoted to the subject, including the April and June 2010 issues. And most of what is said about the secular/cyclical trends currently was already published in prior years of Marketimer. (Of course, not a word about the subject during the time after he said the secular bear trend had ended in June, 2007. Recall that it was on again beginning in May, 2009 -- I'm not making this up. LOL!)


Brinker's "timing model" that he says he bases his "asset allocation" on, must still be flashing green. In September, he raised his "attractive for purchase" buy-signal from S&P low-1000s to 1050. Recall that he told Moneytalk listeners that he had issued a buy signal on July 1st when the S&P was 1030. (Not that it matters to those following Brinker's advice unless they came into some new money. He's recommended a buy-and-hold stance since March, 2003.)

Chart of Bob Brinker's gift-horse buys, courtesy of Kirk Lindstrom:

My Idaho sister-in-law and brother watched a family of robins under their patio cover and took several photographs (they both said they felt "empty nest syndrome" when the babies flew away). I had previously posted a picture right after the babies were born, but in this one, they were a few days old and very hungry. They kept both mom and dad Robin very busy. Click to enlarge:


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