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Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Bob Brinker Moneytalk-Deja Vu
Last Sunday (July 11, 2010) Bob Brinker discussed the stock market and the economy at length. Bob Brinker is very bullish and issued another buy-signal at S&P 500 Index 1030 on July 1st. He talked about how he has been criticized for his optimism and lack of bearishness.
As you read my Moneytalk Summary (see prior post) of Brinker excerpts, many of you who have been following this Blog for awhile, may have felt it was deja vu -- that you had read it all before. Yep, you have -- almost verbatim.
As the 57% Megabear decline of 2008-2009 was just getting started, this is what Bob Brinker was saying on April 19, 2008:
Brinker said: “....Stock market sitting in at 1390 on the S&P 500 Index. Now the all-time high recorded last October at 1565 prior to the correction, and we’ve had the correction. In my opinion, it came and it went and it’s in the history books. And right now, we are in a position where investors are looking ahead. I think they are looking ahead to an economic recovery down the line and that’s why we’ve seen the market improving.”
Brinker said: “You’ve heard me say on the broadcast, I think we are going to new all-time-historic-record stock market highs by 2009. I think by the time we get into 2009, we are going to be talking about all-time-historic record highs on the S&P 500 Index. But I know what you are talking about, I see it all the time.....in writings….in talking heads. They are talking down the United States of America. They are talking down our economy………(Caller John: “Do you think people tend to focus too much on short-term?”) "Oh, absolutely, absolutely, I know this for a fact because when we have gone through this recent bottoming process, and certainly we have worked very, very hard to identify the bottom that I believe that we did accurately identify in the first quarter.
It’s my opinion that the March 10th (2008) [Honey EC: Actually, the low was March 9, 2009 at S&P 677!) low on the S&P 500 was the bottom for the correction. And I think that what happened was that was a very successful test of the initial low recorded January 22nd. You might remember the S&P 500 closed on January 22nd in a very high volume panic-atmosphere at 1310. Well we knew, that despite the fact there’d be some short-term rally.......back then, we knew there was going to have to be a successful test of that low. And we knew what was required of that test before it occurred. Now that is exactly is what happened. And the closing test in March was, actually it was less than 3% below the initial low established on January 22nd. So we are talking about a text-book testing process in that correction low that we looked at.
Unfortunately, unfortunately, and I’m sure you’ve heard this, there were a lot of people out there, and I mean a lot of people out there, who got it completely backwards off that correction low and that successful test……I’ve been telling people, going to, actually to February because we do this through the investment letter, of course, I’ve been telling people to actually use periods of weakness to buy into the market at specifically down in the low-1300’s or any minor weakness just below that level, which we got a little bit of there on March 10th and in mid-March, to take those opportunities to add to positions if you’re looking to add to positions – no mention, no thought of selling anything into this kind of weakness……”
Caller John concluded by saying: “I took your recommendation, Bob. When it was below the 1300’s I added…….I’m just glad I got you, your son and the Marketimer on demand.
Brinker said: "And just for the record, I’m right with John. I was the exact same thing that John was doing. When we saw that weakness on the correction test into the low-1300’s and that very, very minor weakness that we had just below that level for a very short window of time, I was doing the same thing that John was doing – which was adding to positions."
Brinker continued: “And if John is seeing people crying now about the fact that they sold out of the market at the bottom, how do you think those people are going to feel in 2009……if I am correct........and this market recovers to record highs in 2009, how is somebody is going to feel that sold out of the market at 1300?.......this is Moneytalk.”
BAD NEWS BEARS…..Brinker said: “Those who are out there with the bear stories now are making fools of themselves because it just doesn’t compute does it? When you have a market that’s seen this kind of buying it just doesn’t compute……. that America is spiraling downward – doesn’t make any sense.”
Brinker, in answer to his guest speaker’s direct question, “Are you still bullish," said that he thinks we are going to have “new record highs in the stock market by next year” but that a lot of people think he’s lost his mind. Brinker added: “We’ll see who wins out. I’m pretty confident of my forecast…..”
Brinker monologue cont: "...........if you are looking for the market into 2009, then obviously, you should be feeling pretty good about your stock market portfolio. Because not only has it shown a very nice advance since the correction lows in March, but in addition to that, I think it has a lot further to go. And I continue to expect, as I have said, that we will see new all-time-historic-record highs in the S&P 500 Index."
Honey here: Brinker said ALL of that above on April 19, 2008. It is archived here in my Summary on that date.
The S&P has never recovered to the 1300's level that it was when Brinker said he had been buying -- never mind 1390, where it was when he said he was feeling sorry for anyone that sold at 1300.
Earlier this year, I asked if anyone had used the hanging tomato planters. Some of you had...I was very late getting mine planted, but it sure is fun to see how well it is doing. I started with a very small home-started plant that my daughter gave to me. Look at it now: