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August 14, 2017: Bob Brinker's Market Outlook and Advice for New Money
Saturday, June 12, 2010
No More Saturday Moneytalk Programs
June 12, 2010....For those looking for Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, it is only broadcast on Sunday afternoons now. No more Saturday programs. On some stations, Larry Kudlow is hosting a show. Bob Brinker claims this cut-back was his idea and commented last Sunday that he very much enjoyed having Saturday off. That's understandable. He's well past retirement age.
Last Sunday, Brinker said that it's possible that he would call an "outright buy" on the stock market. Of course, this would apply to new money only because Brinker's model portfolios are 100% invested -- as they have been since March, 2003.
Additionally, Brinker has repeatedly advised followers to "buy on weakness." Now he is also saying to dollar-cost-average. This could only apply to those who have new money to put in the market.
Brinker has had many buy levels over the years and several during the 2008-2009 Megabear market, but how many sell levels (raise cash) has Brinker issued over the past 25 years? The answer is exactly two.
The first one was a short time after the 1987 bear market crash. That one was costly for his followers because the stock market made a lot of gains before he was back to fully invested.
The second one was in year-2000. He raised 65% cash reserves that year. That was a good call, but it was mostly wiped out by his buy-QQQQ trade that he issued via "special bulletin" in October 2000.
So in spite of the fact that Brinker has not raised any cash for years, and completely missed the recent Megabear, he is back to talking as though he is a successful market-timer.
When you look at Kirk's chart below, you will see Brinker's buy-levels in 2008-2009. The chart doesn't show that Brinker repeated his long-standing mid-1400's "gifthorse" buy in January 2008.
No wonder Brinker simply FROZE up and missed the March 2009 market bottom.
How much integrity does it take for Brinker to begin to talk about "outright buy signals" again?
And how much nerve does it take for him to dangle the "special bulletin on my website" carrot again?
The last two special bulletin "outright buy signals" Brinker put on his website were in 2008 and 2009:
* In February 2008, his "outright buy signal" was low-1300's (700 points above the low).
* In January 2009 his "outright buy signal" was S&P mid-800's (130 points above the low).
Dixiegeezer photographed this beautiful butterfly: