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Saturday, April 17, 2010

April 17-18, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Excerpts and Commentary

Posted April 17, 2010....Bob Brinker hosted Moneytalk this weekend.

Here's a link to Brinker's big topic of the day (weekend) that he spent most of the program discussing: He called it the biggest financial story in the United States and Europe this weekend: Wall Street Journal: SEC Charges Goldman With Fraud.

Saturday, Brinker did not talk about the stock or bond markets. Basically, Brinker is still fully invested, as he has been since March 2003. He believes the current "cyclical bull market" is intact and "will not come to an end anytime soon." He recommends buying equities "on weakness."

As for the bond market, he still recommends Vanguard's GMNA Fund and believes that even if interest rates go up, the fund will stay in the $9.50-$10.50 range.

Brinker's return to defining the stock market as a "cyclical bull" within a "secular bear megatrend" is something he has done very recently. He devoted a great deal of time to "secular trends" between 2000-2007 -- inferring he could predict when the cyclical bull cycle would end -- which of course, he never was able to do. Indeed, when his "timing model" failed to recognize the Grizzly's approach, he simply reverted to predicting market bottoms. He was never able to do that either and actually missed the real bottom in March, 2009.

However, he has changed his definition of a "cyclical bear." He used to call anything more than a 20% decline a full-fledged bear market. Now he defines the 2008-2009 (S&P 500 Index lost 57%) mega-bear as a "cyclical bear" market -- never mind that during that time frame, he is on record saying the secular bear market had ended in 2006. [Please see this post: April 10th Summary]

Brinker quote: "If you are not fully disclosing what's going on, you are in the snake oil business and not to be trusted."

Brinker quote: "I am a Capitalist. I would not be promoting Socialist policies."


* Brinker recited the closing stock and bond market numbers -- S&P 500 Index up 7 1/2% year-to-date.

* Lots of earnings reports coming out next week. [I have a link to earnings reports in right hand column under "Items of interest to investors".

* Answering a caller's question about dollar-cost-averaging money into the stock market, Brinker said: "To answer your question directly at this juncture, with the market trading at the upper-1100's as we speak, yes I would adopt a dollar-cost-average approach to get that money in the market." [Honey EC: Brinker has not recommended dollar cost averaging in his newsletter since the March 2009 issue. He has been recommending "buy on weakness" since then.]

* Model portfolio III is his Marketimer balanced portfolio [This half bonds - half stock fund lost 23.9% in the 2008-2009 bear market.]

Brinker's Saturday guest speaker was Roger Lowenstein:

Brinker's Sunday guest-speaker was Kenneth Posner: "Stalking the Black Swan."

Moneytalk To Go is Available on Demand Totally Free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast. The three hours of the programs are archived Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm. To download the programs and listen later, just choose the day, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window:

SJ Al took this picture of Hetch-Hetchy reservoir and Wapama Falls, and Half Dome in Yosemite. Click to enlarge -- gorgeous:

I don't usually post 3 photos at once, but Al sent the link (see comments) to this wonderful picture of T. Roosevelt and John Muir at Glacier Point:


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