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Saturday, February 20, 2010

February 20, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary, Commentary and Excerpts

Honeybee update: As many of you know, I have been gone from the blog, battling pneumonia since early in January. Twice, I thought I was on the mend and suffered a relapse -- consequently, I had to undergo some extensive tests and three rounds of very strong antibiotics. Altogether, this left me very weak, so I am working hard to regain strength. My sincere thanks to all of you who wrote emails and blog comments with your good wishes and blessings. I appreciate you more than you can know.

February 20, 2010....Bob Brinker is hosting Moneytalk today. Bob Brinker's opening monologue was devoted to "our dysfunctional government which is incapable of governing." There was nothing said about the current stock, bond or gold markets on the program today.

Brinker's model portfolios are still fully invested. In the January 2010 Marketimer, Page one, Brinker said: "cyclical bull market corrections can occur at any time and we would regard any such pullback as a health restoring event if it were to occur in the weeks ahead." So Brinker must consider this pullback a buying opportunity. His current target range remains at S&P 500 Index 1200 to 1260.

Since all of Brinker's former cyclical/secular market guidelines went swirling down the sewer drain in the years between 2003 and 2009, Brinker has created some new ones. He now says that a "cyclical bull market correction typically fall within a range of 5% to 10%, but can reach the teens in percentages." (The S&P 500 Index dropped about 7% this year.)

For the most part, Brinker's program has become just another political talk show. The only difference with Brinker is that he calls his program "Moneytalk" and bills himself as a "trusted financial advisor." He seems to use that as license to promote his own opinions with very little opposition to anything he says (except here). Most political talk show hosts are upfront and honest about where they stand politically.

Brinker discussed the estate tax at length. Of course, there isn't any in 2010.

Brinker seemed very upset about the discussion that is going on in Washington DC about "confiscating" IRAs and 401Ks by converting them into annuities paid with Treasuries. Some readers don't agree that this would ever be mandatory and have sent comments already. Please read the comments section....

Brinker said:
"So far, the only thing that's been done with reference to confiscation, and that's what I call it, confiscation of IRA money, is that there has been some talk in Washington about the possibility of mandatory United States Treasury annuity conversion of IRA money......I've looked at it, and the way it's been described so far, is there has been talk from a very small group about the possibility of a proposal. And that proposal would essentially be this, that the money that is currently in IRAs, some or all of it to be determined, would come under a mandatory United States Government conversion provision to a Treasury annuity where your money would be converted into a payment stream from the U.S. government......

......So far, it's in the very, very preliminary stage of discussion. Now I think when something that radical, I regard this as one of the most radical ideas that I've ever heard. It almost sounds like President Christina, down in Argentina and some of the stuff that she's done. Some of the stuff that she's done is mind-boggling. I find it difficult to believe that the United States would go down that road, but I would not be making transaction action at this point based on such a possibility.....

.....I don't think you would get a choice for Treasury Notes. Again, I cannot emphasize how preliminary this discussion is but I do not believe, based on what I've heard you would get a choice of taking Treasury Notes. The way it's been described to me, if it were to happen, the United States Government would take over part or all of the proceeds of IRA accounts and convert that into an annuity payment stream, paid out of the Treasury. In other words, they would take the money from your IRA account -- you know how badly they need money in Washington. They are running a black hole of deficit spending and they are addicted and count get out of it......

.....The way it's been described to me, I don't think you would have an option to say, here's my IRA money, give me Treasury Notes....They are interested in getting the cash into the U.S. Treasury and then just giving you an annuity payment stream in return for the cash. Let me go on record right now on this, I am 100% against government confiscation, and that is what it is.....I can assure you, if this idea gains traction and if we're broadcasting here on Moneytalk, I will oppose this with every fiber.

Brinker's Saturday guest-speaker was Arthur Laffer:

Brinker's Sunday guest-speaker was David L. Scott:

Moneytalk is Available on Demand totally free at KGO810 radio for seven days after broadcast.
The three hours of the programs are archived Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm. To download the programs and listen later, just choose the day, right click on each hour that you want and use "Save Link as." KGO Moneytalk Archives [Link] If you want to call KGO and complain about (or praise) Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, here are the numbers: Comments line: 415-216-1052....Listener services: 415-216-1050. Here is the KGO email address -- cut-and-paste it into your email compose window:

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