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Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Bob Brinker, Mark Hulbert and Barron's

January 6, 2010....Please note: In 2007, 2008 or 2009, Bob Brinker's Marketimer was not on the Hulbert Financial Digest list of Top-5 Performers (of all newsletters Hulbert ranked) in any category, over any 5-year time period! [If you question this but don't subscribe to Hulbert Financial Digest, go to your library, they are usually available there.]

However, in spite of the above fact, according to Mark Hulbert's January 6, 2010 Barron's column, he includes Bob Brinker among a panel of top-5 market-timers who "jumped over three hurdles" to qualify as a "top market timer."

Mark Hulbert wrote:

"For guidance, I decided -- as I often do -- to turn to those investment newsletters with the best market timing records in the Hulbert Financial Digest's ranking system. Specifically, I determined which newsletters were able to jump over three market timing performance hurdles....."
If Brinker missed on even one "hurdle," Mark infers he would have been out. So let's look at the following "hurdle": Mark Hulbert wrote: *market timing performance ahead of a buy-and-hold on a risk-adjusted basis during the 2007-2009 bear market...."

Hey, Mark, here's a newsflash for you! Bob Brinker WAS a buy-and-holder during the 2007-2009 BEAR MARKET! What's up with that?

Bob Brinker's model portfolio three year performance numbers.
[Courtesy of Jeffchristie. Brinker no longer includes 3-year performance on his website.]

1: Dec. 31, 2006 = $260,032. On Dec. 31, 2009 = $230.915 for a difference of ($29,117) down 11.2%.

Portfolio 2: Dec. 31, 2006 = $210,074. On Dec. 31, 2009 = $193,172 for a difference of ($16,903) down 8.0%.

Portfolio 3: Dec. 31, 2006 = $197,479. On Dec. 31, 2009 $198,066 for a difference of $587 up 0.3%.

Bob Brinker has made NO market-timing changes to his model portfolios since March 2003. They have been fully invested since then. His stock portfolios dropped 39% in 2008 and another 10% in 2009 before the market turned up.

Included in his Barron's article, Mark Hulbert published this from Bob Brinker's January, 2010 issue of Marketimer:
*Bob Brinker's Marketimer (Robert Brinker) -- Bullish. In his latest issue, published earlier this week, in which he reported that his market timing model is bullish and his model portfolios are fully invested, Brinker wrote: "Our indicators suggest that a new cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not likely to begin during the winter season. While it is true that cyclical bull market corrections can occur at any time, we would regard any such pullback as a health restoring event if it were to occur in the weeks ahead. Cyclical bull market corrections are usually contained with a range of five to ten percent, and are followed by significant rallies to new cyclical bull market highs."
For Mark Hulbert to even call Brinker a market-timer without pointing out how long he has been a "buy and holder," is playing fast and loose with honesty. Mark Hulbert has a long-standing habit of overlooking important facts that would be detrimental to "Robert Brinker." Symbiotic relationship??

Here's a link to Mark Hulbert's Barrons article: Top Market Timers Give 2010 Outlook

Dixiegeezer took this "windsurfers" picture. I think what he did with the framing is beautiful because it gives the artistic feeling of water (click to see it enlarged):

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