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Monday, September 21, 2009

Moneytalk Caller "Jim" and Bob Brinker's Reply

Posted September 21, 2009....Bob Brinker took a call on Sunday's Moneytalk program from a caller named Jim. This call incited quite a bit of interest, so I located the call and transcribed it.

Jim said:
“I heard your comment about booms and I agree with you, booms lead to busts. And I know that the S&P is up 20% or so. But from the bottom in early March, the S&P is up 60%. It’s the fastest gain that I’ve ever seen. I’m 60 years old, I’ve never seen anything like it. And I’m getting concerned that we are getting to a boom period with the market and just wanted your opinion on what if this thing continues? At some point, aren’t we getting to a technical scary place?”

Brinker sarcastically replied: “Well, obviously we are for you, Jim. But speaking for myself, I think the market overshot on the downside. I thought the market could make a stand in the mid-700’s. Matter of fact, back at the time, I wrote that. I thought the market could make a stand in the 750-850 area. Went a little bit lower for a short time and snapped right back. I think that was an overshooting on the downside, as temporary as it was. And so for that reason, I don’t share your pessimism, but I do appreciate your call on Moneytalk."

Frankj wrote:

"At the end of the 2nd hour, BB had a quite reasonable question (paraphrasing) "Hasn't the market come too far, too fast since March?"

BB was saved by the end of the hour. All he had time to do was insult the caller, and criticize the market for daring to go lower in March than he thought it should have.

No comment from BB when his Sunday guest criticized gold as an investment. If BB suspects that his radio audience thinks his guest is smarter than he is, he keeps mum." [LINK]

Pete wrote:

"Congrats now honey that you are second on the list when you search for BOB

bob spinning agian today about the s&P hitting 600. He thought it was overshot going down. It should have hold at 700. LOL" Pete from FB [LINK]

Honey here: Jim made a good point about this meteoric rise in the stock market since the 677 low on March 9, 2009. It's nice for all of us, but it's especially helpful to Bob Brinker because it has given him a much needed "game plan" so he can resume perpetrating the myth that he is able to time the stock market accurately. But wouldn't an honest man admit he threw in the towel on March 5th? And wouldn't an honest man admit that in March, he had no buy signal or dollar-cost-average advice in his "investment letter" and was looking for a retest of the lows?

January 4, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in the mid-1400's.
February 10
, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in the low-1300's.
August 5, 2008: Buy S&P 500 at 1240 or less.
September 2
, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in low-to-mid 1200's
September 16
, 2008: Prior buy signal rescinded, dollar cost average recommended
January 15
, 2009: Buy S&P 500 low-to-mid 800's
March 5, 2009 Marketimer: (Waiting for retest of the lows -- S&P @ 696.33) Bob Brinker said: “Due to the fact that the November 20, 2008 S&P 500 Index closing low failed to hold during the testing process, we believe a new bottoming process will be necessary for a sustainable market advance, we need to see a sequence of events consisting of (a) the establishment of an initial closing low; (b) a short-term rally; (c) a test of the area of the initial closing low on reduced selling pressure."

Chart courtesy of Kirk Lindstrom [LINK].

Dixiegeezer took this picture of a VA Cemetary near St. Petersburg, Florida:


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