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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Bob Brinker's Track Record According to Mark Hulbert

Posted September15, 2009....Bob Brinker's track record is an interesting subject. In spite of his reputation as a market-timer, in March, 2003, Bob Brinker appears to have joined what he used to call the "church of buy and hold."

Last weekend on Moneytalk, a caller asked Brinker about the "The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast." Brinker's response was less than flattering and he actually ridiculed it.

One has to wonder if Brinker had read Mark Hulbert's Marketwatch article posted on September 11th (see the link below). In it, Hulbert said this: "Consider, for example, the newsletter that I suspect came closest a year ago to forecasting what was about to take place: The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, published by Robert Prechter and edited by Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall."

In the article, Hulbert also listed Bob Brinker's Marketimer as one of the newsletters that was "depressingly" bullish in September 2008 -- a year ago.

Mark Hulbert wrote:
"I spent a depressing day earlier this week reading through what newsletter editors were saying exactly one year ago..... .....the vast majority of the newsletters on the Hulbert Financial Digest's monitored list seemed, at least in retrospect, strangely complacent. Here's a sampling of what they were saying in early September of a year ago:
  • Bob Brinker, Bob Brinker's Marketimer: "We expect the S&P 500 index to challenge its previous record closing high of 1565 next year as investors move beyond the current economic malaise and look forward to improving corporate earnings prospects as the economy moves into its recovery phrase."

The bottom line: Warren Buffett was right when he famously said that one of the primary purposes of stock market forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good."
In the latest issue (September) of Hulbert Financial Digest, Marketimer is not in the "Top-5 Performers" for the past five years in any category.

So Brinker's track record since he assumed a 100% invested position with his Model Portfolios in March, 2003 (at S&P 811) is not good. He rode it all the way up to 1565, then rode it back down to 677.

Currently, Brinker is bragging about his market-timing prowess again because he made the statement in January that 2009 would be a positive year for the stock market. He said the same thing in 2008. I think we all are happy that he was right this time. 8~)

Marketwatch: "Let's do the timing warp again on the markets" [LINK]

Dixiegeezer sent this picture of a "field of waterlilies" this morning (Wednesday). Enlarge's spectacular. Monet tried to capture them, but he couldn't quite match this.

Dixiegeezer took this near La Conner, Washington:


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