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Sunday, April 26, 2009

Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Excerpts, Summary and Commentary, April 26, 2009

Posted April 26, 2009, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, Sunday update:

CALIFORNIA STATE GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS: Brinker said: "I like general obligations of states........ That is what I use myself....I have a really hard time believing that the Federal Government would stand by idly and allow state general obligations to go into default. I really don't think they would. And so for that reason, even if they have fiscal problems of their own as many do right now, I think state general obligations are a place that a municipal investor in a high bracket can invest......I think if you own a general obligation of the State of California, and if the State of California continues to have fiscal problems, I would be very surprised if Washington D.C. would stand idly by and allow California to go into bankruptcy.....Bankruptcy has dramatic implications for the citizens of the State California, and I use California because it's the lowest rated of the general obligation state bonds right now because of their fiscal problems......In California, after education expenses are paid, the second thing that gets paid is interest on the California General Obligation Bonds."

Caller Angelo: "I have not subscribed to your newsletter, but did you ever make a call to get out of the market or are you remain fully invested."

Bob Brinker said: "We've remained in the market. I did not make a call to get out of the market. And I discussed this in detail in our program in October when the market broke. But no, I did not make a call to get out of the market. I have stayed with the market. I am bullish on the market at this time. And I think that people who are in the market right now will be very glad they are."

[Honeybee EC:
Bob Brinker is (to put it kindly)
"mistaken" about discussing "in detail" his decision to "not make a call to get out of the market" in October 2008. All one has to do to verify that I am telling the truth is check the 2008 archives of this blog and scroll to the October Summaries. Matter of fact, Brinker has NEVER discussed "in detail" his decision to not get out of this mega-bear market. He has admitted it when forced to, but never discussed it.

And (to put it kindly) how "silly" for him to say the "market broke" in October 2008. Anyone who can read a chart knows that it "broke" in January 2008. See Kirk's chart in the Saturday Summary below.]

Today a caller asked Brinker about buying into the stock market. Brinker said that he was "on record" as recommending to "buy on weakness," and he added that he had written that advice in his April Marketimer. That is correct. In March, he was looking for a new bear market bottom. Yesterday, Brinker inferred that this had been his unchanging advice for quite some time when he said: "Well our recommendation to our subscribers has been to be a buyer on weakness. We have regarded the market as a buy on weakness. That is our view and that's certainly a view that has not changed in recent weeks."
Blogger jeffchristie said...[link]

Brinker said:

"I think there opportunities to make money in the stock market. This is a good time, I think, to be in the stock market. And I think that people that are in the stock market right now are going to be happy they are as we move forward. "

I seem to remember him saying something like this a year or so ago when the S&P 500 was in the 1400's. Since you keep a record of what he said I went back and found this.

"December 2007, Marketimer, Brinker said: “We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on any weakness in the area of the mid-1400’s range of the S&P 500 Index. Any additional weakness below this range is regarded as a gift horse buying opportunity. We prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new purchases when the S&P 500 Index is above the mid-1400’s range.”

January 6th 2008, Brinker said the stock market conditions were "favorable as we enter 2008” and he took a whack at the “bad news bears.” He repeated his prediction of new highs reaching into the “1600’s range.”

Brinker said that he wouldn't rule out the possibility of this swine flu outbreak being a terrorist attack. And he pointed out the one of the officials that met Obama in Mexico is now dead from it!
In edit Monday morning. Jeffchristie reports -- read more here [LINK]
Blogger jeffchristie said...


Brinker did say that a Mexican official who met the president died from the swine flu. Later in the program he back peddled. He said the man died from pneumonia. I think this is the gentleman he was referring to......"

The remainder of the Sunday program covered old ground such as, credit default swaps, repeal of Glass Steagall, the uptick rule, calculating the implied inflation (Brinker says it's 1 1/2% now), naked shorting, and the CDARS program [LINK].

Brinker did not have any guest-speaker Sunday.

I took this picture in Juneau, Alaska, when on a cruise:

In edit: Please click on "older posts" below to read my Summary of Saturday Moneytalk.

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