Peter Brimelow and Mark Hulbert have not included Bob Brinker's newsletter in their columns for some time now. I think the reason is rather apparent. It would look foolish for them to write that Brinker has turned bullish because Brinker has never said he was bearish during this mega-bear -- and he never raised cash.
Brinker did just the opposite. While maintaining fully invested portfolios, he continued to recommend investing all new money throughout the market decline in 2008 and 2009. He advised either dollar-cost averaging or investing lump sums at various levels.
Yesterday on Marketwatch, Peter Brimelow wrote about two "top performer newsletters" which have turned bullish. Of course, Bob Brinker's Marketimer was not one of them.
Ironically, in the March 5, 2009, Marketimer, Brinker did not recommend dollar-cost-averaging and he did not mention his latest "low-to-mid 800's" lump-sum buy level. Instead, Brinker said he was looking for a "sequence of events" to "set the stage" for a sustainable market advance, consisting of: "(a) the establishment of an initial closing low; (b) a short-term rally; (c) a test of the area of the initial closing low on reduced selling pressure." In other words, Brinker said he was looking for a NEW MARKET BOTTOM.
It has been three weeks since the last issue of Marketimer was published. The stock market has had 3 straight weeks of gains. The Dow is up about 17%, and the S&P 500 Index is up about 21%.
For many years, Brinker considered anything over 20% a major market move. Perhaps this weekend, we will hear what Brinker has to say (if anything) about this major rally off the lows.
Almost unbelievably, March 22nd on Moneytalk, Brinker described a 13.6% gain in the market as "fairly close." He said to a caller: ".....I mean, the market is actually fairly close to its closing low right now. The closing low on the S&P is 676. We’re looking at a market right now trading in the 768 area."
Kirk Lindstrom wrote these comments:
"What is 92 points between friends? Well:
92 / 676 x 100% = 13.6%!
If you got a 13.6% raise, would you call that "fairly close" to the same salary? That is why I think Brinker is such an entertainer..."
Today, Friday March 27th, the S&P closed at 816 -- up another 6.2% for this week. That brings the total for the past 13 trading sessions over 20% and equals an 11% gain for the month -- so far.
Steve T. sent this picture with some comments about how he took it. Steve said: "It is an original I took last spring near Yellowstone. It was very rewarding since I saw a herd of bachelors and set up my camera & tripod and waited for them to graze my direction giving me the opportunity to observe behaviors. This photo is of the dominate Ram in the bunch. He paid me a very big compliment when he felt at ease enough to lay down and pose for this photo."